Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from WGTrader:

The 20 SMA is also one of my primary tools for identifying FTT's. When price has been in a channel and has gone through 2 or 3 retraces, and a couple of VE's or more and it is well above (or below) the 20 SMA, you KNOW that a FTT is coming up!
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I am a big fan of the 20 sma myself. The value of it in addition to price and volume is appreciated here.
Many times it can act as the trendline itself. Sometimes defining the channel that is happening. Can sometimes be used to assist on a trendline break with price and volume. As in a simple break of the 20 sma.

Also, and number 1 for myself, I use it as a target when an FTT is identified. When the FTT is well above or well below the 20sma, that is where I look for price to return to the average of price.
It is far from a lagging indicator when I use it in this situation.
An FTT well above or below the 20sma MAY, very well average out. I now have a leading tool.
 

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I sometimes use the slope of the LTL to project where a point 3 may fall, sort of "channels in reverse." Does anyone else do this? I find that sometimes it is quite reliable when used in context of channels, guassians and the 20sma.
 

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The stall/formation component of JH method is, IMO, a major contribution to the field of technical trading. I have attached a document with a couple of charts and a couple of questions and would appreciate any comments.

As a final question I would ask whether it is appropriate to fan the RTL regardless of how one wishes to interpret the "play of the bars"?

TIA

lj
 

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Quote from ljyoung:

The stall/formation component of JH method is, IMO, a major contribution to the field of technical trading. I have attached a document with a couple of charts and a couple of questions and would appreciate any comments.
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lj
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looks like HVS (decrease vol in both colors) however since the vol was low, I think it's CCC, click on 'this chart' first post to see more graphic example http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83604&perpage=6&pagenumber=13
 
Quote from nkhoi:

looks like HVS (decrease vol in both colors) however since the vol was low, I think it's CCC, click on 'this chart' first post to see more graphic example http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83604&perpage=6&pagenumber=13
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Good point. Perhaps then an HVS to CCC transition although against the CCC is the lack of convergence and centering of price. Truly though, the V is so low and the price action at the end of the series of bars so impressive, that a CCC designation may best characterize things. I wonder if there are "hybrids" of the two entities? Me not know. Thanks nkhoi.

lj
 
Hello,

I have somewhat mixed feelings about using a simulator. After a while I couldn't do it anymore. My motivation was dropping and my concentration. I was not focussed, I was bored, doing other things, taking too big risks etc. A nice trade did not give me satisfaction and a bad trade I was thinking what the ... and didn't care. I took trades too easy because it was just a similator after all.... I couldn't help thinking like that. This was all after a while.

So far so good but it's really too early to say real trading does work for me as I am still in my first doubling :-) however I am more concentrated, more serious, more patient, and it's actually fun to take points out of the market. Even if it's only one or two.
Real trading forces me to take only the 100% sure trades or else I will blow out my account. On a similator I wouldn't care. It had nothing to do with reality. Perhaps this is not good but I'm just being honest. I think for me (and maybe in general) it's better to just annotate every day than using the sim.

I just asked myself if I had enough skills to take a few points a day out of the market after almost a year of study. I decided to do it because the answer was "yes" and I was losing my motivation and would have stopped a journey that else could have turned out to be something beautiful. I didn't want that to happen.

Even if you do well every day on simulator there's always that question in mind: "Can I do it for real?". If you don't do well you wonder: "Would it have happened for real?". "Would I have made the same decision if it was real?". No one knows the answers and it would have driven me nuts.

It's simple. You just have to pay for real for making a bad decision just as you have to get paid for real for making a good decision. There's nothing else like it. Face it. It will always be like that. The market is my friend and tells me what it will do so no reason to be scared.

I guess for some people it works but somehow I have the feeling that some of the best similator traders cannot make a dime when trading for real and vice versa. You need skills, experience and all that but also some balls.

regards,
Ivo




Quote from FerdinandAlx:

Everyone should keep this in mind.

It's essential that you configure the simulator with the initial deposit and contract size that you plan on trading with once you get to do the real thing. Pick a number of contracts to trade with and don't deviate from that. Be honest and don't try to mask losses by switching to ten times the usual size.

What a trader can learn well on a simulator is to remain on the proper resolution level. This will prevent a tendency to go too deep down the rabbit hole once it comes to live trading. It will counter the psychological need to be on a hair trigger and will allow a trader to lean back and stay in for the trend.
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Quote from ivob:

Real trading forces me to take only the 100% sure trades... it's better to just annotate every day than using the sim. ... enough skills to take a few points a day out of the market after almost a year of study.
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Ivo, this is exactly where I am at as well. I echo your sentiments. Since I have never seen anyone actually trade the JH method in real-time, it is kind of hard to know how one makes the leap from annotation to simulation to real. For me personally, trading real forces you to have patience. Every day, there are at least 2-3 clear-cut opportunities to capture a couple of points. If you don't exercise the patience to wait for these opportunities, the market will quickly tell you so. Real trading forces patience and discipline. For me, I believe it is better to trade real when you sure about the signals you are receiving and processing and just annotate when you're not.
 
WGTrader,

could you describe such clear-cut opportunities? Entry on a pt3 or something else?

Quote from WGTrader:

Ivo, this is exactly where I am at as well. I echo your sentiments. Since I have never seen anyone actually trade the JH method in real-time, it is kind of hard to know how one makes the leap from annotation to simulation to real. For me personally, trading real forces you to have patience. Every day, there are at least 2-3 clear-cut opportunities to capture a couple of points. If you don't exercise the patience to wait for these opportunities, the market will quickly tell you so. Real trading forces patience and discipline. For me, I believe it is better to trade real when you sure about the signals you are receiving and processing and just annotate when you're not.
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Quote from innersky:

WGTrader,

could you describe such clear-cut opportunities? Entry on a pt3 or something else?
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The market will tell you what the opportunities are. They could be early recognition of an FTT (see my earlier post about the 20 SMA), a point 3, blasting out of a lateral on higher volume, whatever. Again, let the market tell you.
 
Quote from innersky:

... clear-cut opportunities ...
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It should be noted that "clear-cut" is a function of one's skill level. What might be clear-cut to Spyder, might be confusion to me! :p
 
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