Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[ericta]

Quote from dkm:

If memory serves me right, only one APA is allowed per one minute bar.

No, I understand you need to do the reverse over and over until it clears the entry.
I recall in a trading journal, Jack once did 3 reversals in 30 sec period. and people laughed at him said it's brokers' dream comes true, and they were probably right, if APA falls in the hand of wrong people, like me.
as an experiment, I'll write simple trading system mimics APA and I'll post the result here or "software" journal if spyder think the topic is unfit.

 

[cnms2]

Quote from makosgu:

01-08-07 10:00 PM

So here is my bar by bar run down. I will put up as many as I can permit. I will try to put up complete days (ie. 81 bars). This is the actual mental annotations and reps that I go through. You will find different modus that I have for different bars. PV is the crux of all of it as am calibrating to the cycling surging and withdrawal of volume. The best illustration I liken PV to is that channels are like tides. The tide has a definite direction (ie. towards high, or towards low tide). In between low and high tide, you have the cycling of surging and withdrawing water line (ie. advances toward high or low tide). These are the dominants since the surges directly correspond to the advancing of the front (ie. price).

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1319441>

Given this, here's the step by step as I recalled for friday...

Bar 1...
We have extraordinary volume. On extraordinary volume, price translates pretty well. In other words you do not have your typical meandering back and forth. Instead, the price translation is rather swift. Extraordinary volume with price being below the open from the beginning of the bar, the trend is short. However, I am on alert since the first several minutes out of the gate, I find riddled with directional changes and various 3 bar formations. I did not have the previous days carryover (a NO NO), but I carry on anyway since it does not effect my modus...

Bar 2...
PRV DECReasing volume all through to the end of the bar. Immediately from the get go, the DECReasing PRV volume flags that pt2 is possibly on the table. Simultaneously and instantly I am on gaurd for 2 things, whether or not bar 2 will extend beyond the lo of bar 1 (ie. extension beyond lo is in the dominant direction), or whether it will retrace back up to the hi of bar 1. Initially, it shows signs of extending the lo but stops and finishes up. The point at which it didn't extend the lo, I "KNEW" I had pt 2.

Bar 3...
PRV INCReasing volume...
I am on gaurd and looking for only two things; either it extends beyond the top of bar 2, which would be the end of S1 and beginning of L2, or it ends the retrace and begins the second traverse of the channel. I get the latter... Annotate my pt3 and move forward to the next bar...

Bar 4...
PRV INCReasing volume...
From the get go it is biz as usual but then the bar turns. We started with INCR RED but then the V turns BLACK with INCR volume. What happened here was the end effect of the traverse was within the bar. I know this because I watched the extension of the LO of bar 3 which is what I was expecting since I saw an INCR PRV. However, the extension stops and begins retracing. Without having the benefit of looking elsewhere, I am noting wether the lo of this bar is an FTT for a new channel. I wait and see watching to see if my Bar 5 will show INCR PRV to BO from my RTL.

Bar 5...
DECR PRV...
I wait and checkout whether it extends the top of Bar 4... It doesn't and instead stalls... I know I am still in the retrace.

Bar 6...
INCR PRV...
Dominant occuring. The question is whether the DOMINANT will be BO from the S1 or a 3rd traverse of S1. From the open, it surges towards the LTL. Back in biz...

Bar 7...
This bar actually started with INCR PRV and then migrated to DECR PRV...
From it's open, I am looking to see whether or not it will extend the LTL. From the open, it doesn't extend the lo of bar 6. I am on alert because the pace is extreme which means the bar is likely to have large volatility. I watch and having not acted on the possible bar 6 FTT, my fall back is a XO of the RTL. As soon as it XOs, I annotate that S1 is over and I plug in my pt1 for S2. Despite being caught off gaurd by the DECR PRV, I am still on the RIGHT SIDE by MONITORING the XO of my RTL... The top of bar 7 is my current pt2 and I am looking to see whether bar 8 will extend it or retrace it to give me pt 3... I want to be comfortable that L2 is a LONG and not a LATERAL/PENNAT so I am on alert...


continued...

MAK!

 

[cnms2]

Quote from makosgu:

01-09-07 06:48 PM

Bar 8...
a. P extends hi of bar 7
b. -PRV
Although I get my bar extension, I do not like the V play. With -PRV, I would have expected the bar NOT to extend the hi of bar 7. Instead I was immediately expecting bar 8 to start retracing. I was expecting bar 7 to give my pt2 and bar 8 to working its way to pt3. Nonetheless, I am still on the right side of the L2 channel so keep up with the play action. I was expecting that my pt2 was on bar 7 but instead I'm getting it on bar 8. Either way, I knew what to expect next...

Bar 9...
a. P extends lo of bar 8
b. -PRV
It is as I expected. Retrace on -PRV. Before Bar 9 closes, I gain confidence that bar 8 is my pt2. Now what about pt3. I did take note of the fact that intrabar, there is a sizeable bounce back from the lo. I note that I may have pt3. On bar 10, I am expecting -PRV to push the retrace furthur. A lateral is still in the cards if the retrace goes as far as my pt1.

Bar 10...
a. P does not extend the hi or the lo of previous bar
b. -PRV
I noticed that I got my -PRV but it does not extend the retrace. The action remains inside of the previous bar. For me it is enough to establish that I am not in a lateral. At this point, I expect the next bar to be +PRV. Reason being is that I established my pt3 is now on bar 9. From here, I expect the DOMINANTS to take over and traverse to the LTL. To do this requires +PRV and an extension of the hi of this current bar.

Bar 11...
a. P extends hi of previous bar
b. -PRV
The bar begins with an extension but the extending does not continue. Additionally my PRV is negative. All is not well and something has shifted. Mid bar, I notice that my PRV continues to fall. The -PRV clues me in that an FTT is in this current card which I note. So now I know one of two things is gonna happen NEXT since I am bordering on the RTL and the bar is RED on -PRV. Either I will BO or resume the traverse. If I get +PRV supporting the BO, I will plug in my pt1 and annotate the FTT of this current bar. If I get +PRV supporting the resume, L2 continues.

Bar 12...
a. P extends lo of previous bar
b. +PRV
Shortly into the bar, I note +PRV in addition to an open that XO my RTL, I immediately annotated my pt1 and got to work annotating channel S3. Midbar I note that the +PRV is only marginal. This shows that the current channel has had a weak beginning. Nonetheless, a surge of +PRV is possible on the next bar which I would expect to extend the current LO of this bar. By the end of the bar, I note that I closed away from the LO and so I annotate a tentative pt2. If i get considerably +PRV, I expect the pt2 to be pushed furthur out. If i get -PRV I expect to be retracing to my pt3. Additionally I am on alert that the current volume of the last several bars is considerably smaller than S1 and L2. At this point, I wasn't sure if I was in a lateral or a short. Pt3 will tell all. I am also wondering why volume has subsided, It's only 11.


<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1320549>

 

[TraderD72]

I am currently using ES and PRV to determine PT3's for entry and then using a break of the RTL for exits.

The problem arises for me when the RTL of a channel is broken, calling for an exit, but then a few bars later forming another PT3 of a "fanned out" channel.

Happened twice today.

Looking at Spyders chart the first time was around 10am when the first BLUE RTL was broken and was quickly followed by a PT3 of the fanned out GREEN channel.

Second time was around 2:30 pm when the GREEN RTL was broken and followed by the new BLUE PT3 a few bars later.

In both cases the DOM volume was not substantial in the area of these new PT3's (at least that was my interpretation).

When the RTL breaks I find myself looking for the PT2 and PT3 of a NEW DOWN CHANNEL rather than thinking it may be a fanned out UP CHANNEL PT3.


Hope this makes sense....

Any comments or suggestions???

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from TraderD72:

Any comments or suggestions???

Understand the differences which take place when Price breaks the RTL, and how those differences effect both the trend and the channel. (In other words, did Price break the RTL on increasing or on decreasing volume?)

Good Trading to you.

- Spydertrader

 

[TraderD72]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Understand the differences which take place when Price breaks the RTL, and how those differences effect both the trend and the channel. (In other words, did Price break the RTL on increasing or on decreasing volume?)

Good Trading to you.

- Spydertrader

I think I need some clarification, please, Spyder.

When price breaks the RTL on decreasing volume it tells us that the channel is not properly set so we need to "fan out" (correct me please if I am wrong).

This morning the BLUE RTL break out I see you annotated a "R2R" here. Because of the higher RED volume at 10:05 I thought this was a BO on increased volume.

In the second example, around 2:20pm, I noticed the RTL break on decreasing RED volume.

Then when the 2:35pm bar went "B2B" I found it hard to identify as the new DOWN PT3 (your RED channel) as pullbacks to the RTL are supposed to happen on decreased NON dominant volume.

The same bar did close well off its high so I possibly could have viewed the volume later in the bar as red???

Thank you very much for your willingness to help.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from TraderD72:

This morning the BLUE RTL break out I see you annotated a "R2R" here. Because of the higher RED volume at 10:05 I thought this was a BO on increased volume.

You may wish to review the chart I posted earlier. Price broke the RTL of the Blue channel on the next bar (10:10 AM) - which showed decreasing black Volume.

Quote from TraderD72:

Then when the 2:35pm bar went "B2B" I found it hard to identify as the new DOWN PT3 (your RED channel) as pullbacks to the RTL are supposed to happen on decreased NON dominant volume.

Spike bars often contain significant amounts of both dominant and non-dominant Volume. By mentally 'splitting' the bar in half, you can then 'see' the decreasing Non-Dominant Volume change to increasing Dominant Volume as the Intra-Bar Gaussian shift occurs. Check the YM during this period to catch a better view (or look at the ES one minute) and to 'see' the changes as they take place within the ES 5 minute bar.

- Spydertrader

 

[ljyoung]

Lest I generate confusion, what I referred to as the "BCFBW" (Building Channels for Building Wealth) document, is in fact the "CFBW" (Channels for Building Wealth) document. Yes, Virginia, there is only one.

BTW, I had read the MAK bar by bar commentary before but it's one of those things, not unlike "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", that you see more with each re-read.

lj

 

[cnms2]

That's why I posted it ... You're welcome!

Quote from ljyoung:

...

BTW, I had read the MAK bar by bar commentary before but it's one of those things, not unlike "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", that you see more with each re-read.

lj

 

[ivob]

HI,

I know. It's just ridiculous. We just have to let it go especially when price is breaking new grounds on +PRV.

regards,
Ivo

Quote from BlowFish:

Perhaps we should have a prize for the worse offender. I think I'd beat you hands down!! Today nailed both the 1 & 3 of the second channel (the shallow down sloping one) both within a couple of ticks. I am embarrassed to admit how quickly I washed them. However in the interest of full disclosure I can tell you it was a matter of seconds for +.5 & +1. Did marginally better later on.

Cheers.