Quote from RoughTrader:
As a result of keeping in line with BOTH P and V, I can actually see FTTs and turns 10 - 30 seconds before they actually occur.
RT
Last few days I have been considering a few things. One i have been pondering is this.... I think there are 'early traders' and 'late traders'.
Each has advantages and disadvantages. BTW this is speaking from the point of view of using course tools only (ES & YM2min). Without the benefit of finer tools, I often notice intrabar shifts in YM volume (and to a lesser extent ES) that lead price. Of course both types of trader would like to 'carve the turn' closer to the actual end effect as they progress and gain experience.
I think the majority of traders are 'late traders' and will add tools and/or improve there skills to allow them to act earlier. I am by instinct an early trader I tend to see the shift in supply and demand before the turn. The end of the dominant rather than the start of the non-dom if you like.
As I said there are a couple of fairly distinct advantages and disadvantage to both. The greatest disadvantage for me (as an early trader) is that this makes me a little trigger happy (taking a wash prematurely). For example in the case of an FTT you are taking action as the pace in the previous direction is falling if you misjudge this you must take prompt action or you will be tied up in the final surge toward the LTL. (or worse another VE).
I think the methodology (working from forest level back in the early months) tends to promote later trading, later folding in finer tools to carve the turn closer back to the actual change.
I see this as a decision/action thing. If you detect change the most appropriate action might still be do nothing until you see more 'confirmation' (to use a CW term). Clearly intrabar shifts on YM2 (or even ES5) are starting down the rabit hole.
Anyway I have several thoughts on this if it is of interest or even relevant, but in a nutshell seeing things early can present its own challenges.
Cheers.
