Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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As someone who specializes in stupid questions, please permit me to say, that based on very preliminary observations, IMO, it seems to be so. There is beaucoups work to be done on taking this working hypothesis to a more refined level and large gaping, abysmal pits between the former and the latter.
That's all I'm going to say about it because at the moment I'm trying to splice together some newly acquired information on a much better understood market scenario - the YM leading ES thingy. This could take a while.
lj
STO 44.75 (ES VE; YM tape at RTL)
hold short 41.25 (ES at RTL; YM red volume)
hold short 37.25 (move down confirmed)
BTO 39.5 (ES tape at RTL; YM tape at RTL)
hold long 42 (ES at RTL vol decresing; YM RTL BO red volume)
only 1 min later:
STO 39.25 (held too long, b/c ES' low volume, now BO with volume; YM too)
hold short 37.25 (ES RTL BO, FTT confirmed; YM too)
BTC 37 (end of day; waited for price to come down to tape's RTL to close)
I feel good about these trades ...
Even about the second one: I followed my rules ...
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1685103>
hold short 41.25 (ES at RTL; YM red volume)
hold short 37.25 (move down confirmed)
BTO 39.5 (ES tape at RTL; YM tape at RTL)
hold long 42 (ES at RTL vol decresing; YM RTL BO red volume)
only 1 min later:
STO 39.25 (held too long, b/c ES' low volume, now BO with volume; YM too)
hold short 37.25 (ES RTL BO, FTT confirmed; YM too)
BTC 37 (end of day; waited for price to come down to tape's RTL to close)
I feel good about these trades ...
Even about the second one: I followed my rules ...<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1685103>
Quote from callmate:
cnms2
Good trading.I also caught part of your first trade but only for 1.5 points.
...
Here is my work for the day. The annotation is real time up to 11:00 am Eastern.
I did two trades today both washes. Thought we had an FTT at 10:35 and again at 11:04, but I was wrong both times. The YM enabled me to wash both of the trades because it is a leading indicator. Could have used it to reverse if was more skillful. Still a lot to learn.
I did two trades today both washes. Thought we had an FTT at 10:35 and again at 11:04, but I was wrong both times. The YM enabled me to wash both of the trades because it is a leading indicator. Could have used it to reverse if was more skillful. Still a lot to learn.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Spyder,
I am still giving this a shot. I have not given up.
This is another try at identifying whether a day is an " M " " W " or neither, and possibly knowing this in the first three bars at open.
You gave me a lead, and I keep working at it.
If this is wrong again, Do I get a "B" for effort?
This particular puzzle is also on my list for further investigation, though I have given it some thought. Great observations on your chart made perfect sense to me.
The bigger issue is probably distinguishing between M/W day and non M/W day. Larger context can give some clues but I am sure thats not the answer.
Cheers.
Callmate your approach sounds eminently sensible. IMO belief is one of the cornerstones of success.
I have noticed during the course of this thread Tums has very sensibly referred people 'back' to build that strong foundation of 'belief'. I think I would probably be safe in saying that he has a strong belief in the (JHM).
I am not sure his comment was made literally but regardless of this it is of great interest. I am sure that many of us have found ourselves in a similar situations. This is despite large amounts of time drilling & debriefing and a complete 'belief' in the veracity of the JHM.
Is it really disbelief? If so in what, perhaps ourselves? Or maybe it's something else altogether. (for example that good old catch all fear). I wonder if something in our psyches actually craves 'certainty'.
Anyway well done Callmate for me it's good to hear about people moving to the next step.
Cheers.
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