Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[TIKITRADER]

Quote from guavaman:

I don't see anything on the 12:10 bar that would tell me a sentiment change had occurred. Yes there is inc. black on that bar, but we are still very much in a downtrend. We just had peaking red volume. The YM had dec. black until the :10 bar and that price bar ended up as a doji. :15 bar on ES was red followed by dec. black on the :20 bar. None of this suggested change of sentiment to me. Yes a retrace, but not a reversal.

Looks like my remedial JHM course isn't working .

Hey guavaman,

Here is a video of the time you have in question. It starts around 11:45 and ends around 1m.
It is a tick replay of just the ES with prv , as I had not recorded live, the day.
Playing this back may help to see something you might have missed.
It is annotated up to the time in question, then very lightly annotated after that, so you can see things your own way.

I hope this helps, maybe others who replay this can post what thay see at the times in question.
One note- I did not put any pennants, as you had mentioned you do not use them. I did annotate flaws up to the time that was not clear for you.
Again , hope this helps.

Entire video is consolidated up to 5 mins total time.

video link :http://www.screencast.com/t/L0rCZmGW3

 

[cnms2]

Quote from Grob109:

... Here is a killer "gimick" with plain bars just like knowing a candle gimick. Do this every day and you will make more than the daily H/L range. 2500 points a year for 125,000 bucks a year per contract.

Print five days of charts. Take a red ball point. Mark the 6 to eight lowest volume bars. Take a green ball point, circle the two tick bars. Circle the three tick bars.

You see that if volume is very low (Do PRV), you have a range of three entry prices max.

On the next bar enter in the direction of the extension of the next bar. Hold until the extension on that bar or the next one or two comes to a halt. Exit.

You do eight trades a day. You are in the market up to ten minutes eight times.

For candle people, they see this as a named pair of bars. You just see it as one bar and trade ahead of the cnadle crew.

VDU gives you a short bar before a BO. you know what value VDU has. You enter when the following bar goes "outside" the VDU price bar.

This is a nice "edge" trade that comes up 8 times a day.

Why can't this trade ever go against you?? LOL.

Bottom line. Keep bars simple and learn to know their "tunes". Making money is a musical experience.

We use bars to form melodies of trends that we exit at the end of.

Trading just the first right to left traverse of the first of four daily trends gets you 75,000 a year per copntract for 30 min a day. This is a "tape" set of bars that comes to an end and you exit.

 

[cnms2]

Quote from Grob109:

Warm up drill 4

Use on fractals of 5 to 15 min bar duration. Use ( ) for mechanical operation; program as a learning exercise. This is a “push” approach. You are driven by market momentum.

Phenomena in play: volatility, P, V relation, odd harmonics. Annual per contract 100K. Use capital limitation: Do not trade more contracts if partial fills occur; this is a non-liquidity strategy. Lay off profits into non-push strategies.

1. Look back

a. Determine lowest volume in last 20 bars. (Look for VDU bar)

2. Monitor ensuing bars.

a. If bar is within 10% of that volume, then go to step 3.

3. Determine if price bar is inside bar for that volume. (Look for “inside bar”)

a. If yes then go to step 4.

4. Enter on first BO beyond price bar at end of bar. (Enter on price BO)

5. Hold 3 bars and, then, if volume of any following bars is less than prior bar, exit at market on open of next bar. (Sell on trend end (after peaking volume))

#4 in sequence of mechanical start up. (Two variable system). Go to trends for longer holds in optimizing MV. This is a warm up for learning entries only.

Alt: Equations 1, 2, 3. TC2000 Ver 3.0 for equities. Less than 6 day trades.

 

[TIKITRADER]

cnms2,

You just nailed my favorite thing I look for. When it comes my way, it is usually gold.
The greater the consolidation of price and dry up, on one bar. . . especially at a right trendline, the happier I am !

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from bi9foot:

That is I have seen a lot of FBO's of the formations that I seem to be not sure of taking the next potential formation BO due to chances it could fail.

Start out by counting the number of formations occurring in any one day. Use any chart you like, for any day you prefer. Once you've totaled the number of formations, count the number of actual FBO's which develop. Then count the numbers of formation break outs which did not result in an FBO. Which list has a significantly higher number.

On Friday, I count 17 formations (Pennants and Lateral Formations). Of those, I see 6 FBO's and 11 Non-FBO's. Of the six FBO's, 4 continued on the next bar in the direction of the original break out - leaving 2 which changed direction compared to the previous break out.

It appears, to me at least, you have created an arbitrary mental construct defined as, "a lot" for a situation, which, presents a problem, two to three times a day.

What if we look to see what possibilities exist when we have a Pennant Break Out (you'll find three). If one knew what possibilities existed, and then had a plan for each, one would not, could not, feel anything but comfort, as you'd then know in advance what to do should any of the three scenarios unfold.

In other words, no need to guess what might happen, know what can happen, and then, when you 'see' the one possibility remaining at the end, you'll have a plan in place for how to handle it.

- Spydertrader

 

[dkm]

Spyder
At 13:35 on that attached clip from 26 Oct, price bo's the green RTL on increasing red vol but you chose to annotate it as a new pt3 long. I have assumed that we only fan channels in this manner when the RTL is broken on decreasing volume. Could you explain how you reached this decision please?

I noticed that you did a similar channel adjustment on Thursday 25th Oct at 11:30 where price bo'd the RTL on increasing black volume, yet you annotated a new pt3 for a shallower short channel.

Thanks

David

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

At 13:35 on that attached clip from 26 Oct, price bo's the green RTL on increasing red vol but you chose to annotate it as a new pt3 long. I have assumed that we only fan channels in this manner when the RTL is broken on decreasing volume. Could you explain how you reached this decision please?

1. Break on decreasing Volume must fan, but break on increasing Volume can fan. One set of circumstances results in mandatory action. The other results in an optional action. How to distinguish between when to do so and when not to do so results from noting, "Did the trend change, or just the channel?"

2. In this specific case, the Outside Bar formed a Point Three (as they often do) which made the choice quite easy.

- Spydertrader

 

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

"Did the trend change, or just the channel?"

Given that the outside bar with incr red vol at 13:35 formed a lateral, with subsequent black bars with decreasing vol, was it possible to reach the conclusion of "this is a pt3 long" before the bo long at 14:00?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

Given that the outside bar with incr red vol at 13:35 formed a lateral, with subsequent black bars with decreasing vol, was it possible to reach the conclusion of "this is a pt3 long" before the bo long at 14:00?

To use the vocabulary of 'conventional orthodoxy,' you know much earlier than 14:00 bar, but you receive confirmation with the 1400 bar. In other words, the dominos begin to fall, and the sequence begins, much earlier.

- Spydertrader

 

[Pepe]

Quote from Spydertrader:

1. Break on decreasing Volume must fan, but break on increasing Volume can fan. One set of circumstances results in mandatory action. The other results in an optional action. How to distinguish between when to do so and when not to do so results from noting, "Did the trend change, or just the channel?"

2. In this specific case, the Outside Bar formed a Point Three (as they often do) which made the choice quite easy.

Hi Spyder,

I read your answer to DKM, and some things you said made me have some questions that I hope you can help me understand them better

I understand that we must fan our channels when we have Decreasing Volume, but I was a bit surprised to see that we do that even if we have Increasing Volume. I thought that if we have a RTL BO with increasing volume, we have a change in Trend. No subjectiveness here imho

Let’s imagine we were Long from 12.20 PT3 and Holding. How could we tell that the Trend hadn't changed if we were at 13:35 outside bar close with a RTL BO?

I thought in some possibilities:

a) Because it bounced at SMA?

b) Because 13.35 is really not increasing volume when compared with last peak volume (13.20), so we didn't have a really R2R there?

Thanks in advance