Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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My take ...
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Quote from guavaman:
I don't see anything on the 12:10 bar that would tell me a sentiment change had occurred. Yes there is inc. black on that bar, but we are still very much in a downtrend. We just had peaking red volume. The YM had dec. black until the :10 bar and that price bar ended up as a doji. :15 bar on ES was red followed by dec. black on the :20 bar. None of this suggested change of sentiment to me. Yes a retrace, but not a reversal.
Looks like my remedial JHM course isn't working.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1615793&highlight=gaussian*#post1615793Quote from guavaman:
I don't see anything on the 12:10 bar that would tell me a sentiment change had occurred. Yes there is inc. black on that bar, but we are still very much in a downtrend. We just had peaking red volume. The YM had dec. black until the :10 bar and that price bar ended up as a doji. :15 bar on ES was red followed by dec. black on the :20 bar. None of this suggested change of sentiment to me. Yes a retrace, but not a reversal.
Looks like my remedial JHM course isn't working
Of course no one knows A, but there was nothing that told me that a BO was going to occur as opposed to an FBO (which seemed more likely to me). I would have had to determine that although I saw no evidence of a change in sentiment, I will choose the change in sentiment route.
Obviously my interpretation was incorrect, but other than what Tums had indicated, I just don't see what course level tools told me to give up the ghost on that one.
It should be noted however that I am as dense as concrete
Formations don't fall under the category of advanced level material. I chose to wait to provide information on them, in an effort to show how using formations causes a vast majority of 'flaws' (the area which causes the most confusion) to disappear. By annotating all formations, you find a natural 'break point' where the market provides opportunity to insure one sits on the 'right side' of the market. By example, cnms2 annotated a Sym Pennant as a 'dip' on his chart (or so it appears). While you may not 'know' what outcome to anticipate with respect to a Dip, we certainly know how to determine outcome of a Sym Pennant Break Out.
As such, I encourage you to learn to 'see' things in terms of the formations in an effort to 'uncomplicate' the areas which currently cause you frustration.
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