Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Spydertrader]

Quote from bundlemaker:

My apologies, I meant to say "decreasing" volume, which would be what one expects after an FTT.

It's also what one would expect after a Point Two, yet you do not appear to have considered this possibility. In addition, what followed your thinking on an FTT Bar resulted in a Sym Pennant (not drawn in on your chart, but See Attached). Once a Sym pennant formed (the market asking, "Are you sure?"), you need to consider all possibilities. The one possibility you did not add to your charts (the Orange Channel) ended up being the real environment. Note the YM during this same time period. Price exits the Sym Pennant on increasing PRV, and at the same time, the YM has not created a B2B.

Lastly, Price breaks your taped up channel (skinny white line) at around 1501.50 - clearly indicating the down trend still had control. Why you waited until 1500 to exit, when every signal needed to know you sat on the wrong side of the market, i do not understand.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1653085>

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from The Swordsman:

Fwiw, I do not use 2min YM, I do not use S/S, I do not use tick charts. All I use is PRV, my 5 min ES and I watch the DOM very closely. For some reason, discarding all the bells and whistles has put me in a place where I see so much more. Perhaps you need to discard some stuff too?

I was attempting to use the tool set you just outlined. Spyder instructed to use the YM, and I'm feeling a bit torn, as I don't see the YM helping me because I don't see things consistantly there ( or anywhere).

Actually, I don't use the DOM either, because it just looks like a bunch of scrolling numbers to me.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from bundlemaker:

I anticapated a pt3 because that's what comes after an FTT.

Actually, a Point Two arrives after an FTT, then the Point Three arrives after Point Two.

- Spydertrader

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from Spydertrader:

It's also what one would expect after a Point Two, yet you do not appear to have considered this possibility. In addition, what followed your thinking on an FTT Bar resulted in a Sym Pennant (not drawn in on your chart, but See Attached). Once a Sym pennant formed (the market asking, "Are you sure?"), you need to consider all possibilities. The one possibility you did not add to your charts (the Orange Channel) ended up being the real environment. Note the YM during this same time period. Price exits the Sym Pennant on increasing PRV, and at the same time, the YM has not created a B2B.

Lastly, Price breaks your taped up channel (skinny white line) at around 1501.50 - clearly indicating the down trend still had control. Why you waited until 1500 to exit, when every signal needed to know you sat on the wrong side of the market, i do not understand.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1653085>

Dear Spyder,

I thank you very very much for this. I have some honest comments and questions which will be brief I promise. I beg that you watch for my reply in about an hour or so, I left lunch go waaay too long and now am paying by way of major migraine.

Again,

Thank you more than you can imagine

 

[The Swordsman]

Bundlemaker,

If you are patient, you'll get gimme trades like the pt 3 at 14:50. Textbook, everything lined up, no brainer. With the liquidity available, this can be a 50 lotter for 4+ pts easy down the road.

 

[cnms2]

I guess today you picked the wrong battle (and you should've known better): you missed the nice run down, and what so far looks like a nice run up, but you traded the midday congestion ... It's fine for those skilled enough, but unwise for the rest of us...

Quote from bundlemaker:

Dear Spyder,

I thank you very very much for this. I have some honest comments and questions which will be brief I promise. I beg that you watch for my reply in about an hour or so, I left lunch go waaay too long and now am paying by way of major migraine.

Again,

Thank you more than you can imagine

 

[bundlemaker]

Dear Spyder,

Actually, I did expect that this was pt2, and thus the next bar didn’t bother me.

The break of the pennant (which you drew in) and/or the break of the up tape I saw on increasing prv. I consciously made the decision to stay long because the Gaussian was still dec red.

Let me be more specific: indeed, it was inc prv, BUT ONLY on a bar to bar basis. The prv indicated that end of bar was still going to be a dec red Gaussian. This is what I tried sorting out a month or two ago (which lead to the big contra taud). Way early in the thread Mak posted several charts and comments about this and we spoke on the phone about this. Time and again, as best I was able to understand, we’re supposed to pay attention the the Gaussians before paying attention to bar by bar. This situation is exactly what I meant in the past when I spoke of “contradictions” or “mixed signals”.

So, it feels like I’m left with guessing: do I pay attention to bar by bar (or the pennant) or do I pay attention to the dec red Gaussian.

I have spent a great deal of time with an interesting book by the name of Conceptual Blockbusting, all about changing perceptual errors or “stuckness”. Believe it or not, I am trying my best to understand your instructions and your intent. And then, mixed in, are some dumb things on my part. I apologize for that and will do my best to avoid asking questions where dumbness might have had an impact on the situation.

Lastly, I held down to the low of where the FTT formed, at which time we obviously did not have an uptrend. I did this based on the specific reccommendation of Excat8r. (I'm not blaming him for this or any loss, just saying where I got the idea).

Thank you again.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from The Swordsman:

Bundlemaker,

If you are patient, you'll get gimme trades like the pt 3 at 14:50. Textbook, everything lined up, no brainer. With the liquidity available, this can be a 50 lotter for 4+ pts easy down the road.

I was told (not by Spyder) to avoid pt3 trades in the middle of the day's range. After the better part of a year, and well over a thousand pages of thread, and and and; I admit my ability to hold in my mind what I need to is not working out too well.

My perceptual filters seem hell bent on making things seem different than what they are (especially at the time of trade execution). Call it an excuse if you want, but I continue to make the best effort I can to expose (to myself) what the hell I"m doing to cause these apparently stupid mistakes.

The REAL bone headed sh** kicks in after I get so frustrated from thinking I really am following the directions. Eg. the first trade I posted today without inc vol where it needed to be, that, in retrospect, was a childish thing to post.

I do appreciate your input.

 

[ehorn]

My view of the day attached. Fun "W" day!

 

[The Swordsman]

I dont know who told you to avoid these situations but they dont get any more basic that this pt 3. Look at the gaussians, we BO of the days down channel on inc blk volume. Blk rising bar over bar, then we get red retrace of dec volume. The an inside bar, then a double bottom w/ increasing blk again. Perfect point 3!

My suggestion is to study these situations as these are the big winner trades.

Quote from bundlemaker:

I was told (not by Spyder) to avoid pt3 trades in the middle of the day's range. After the better part of a year, and well over a thousand pages of thread, and and and; I admit my ability to hold in my mind what I need to is not working out too well.

My perceptual filters seem hell bent on making things seem different than what they are (especially at the time of trade execution). Call it an excuse if you want, but I continue to make the best effort I can to expose (to myself) what the hell I"m doing to cause these apparently stupid mistakes.

The REAL bone headed sh** kicks in after I get so frustrated from thinking I really am following the directions. Eg. the first trade I posted today without inc vol where it needed to be, that, in retrospect, was a childish thing to post.

I do appreciate your input.