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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Quote from MoveTimer:
Is it possible to trade JH method profitable on consistent basis using only the basic stuff: channels and PRV? No 2min YM, no STR/SQU, no DOM, etc.
Yes. See The Equities Journal for almost daily examples.
- Spydertrader
A resounding yes. One should be capable of this before even messing with YM/SS/DOM etc. ES/PV makes you profitable, the other stuff makes you MORE profitable -- it WILL NOT take you from unprofitable to profitable.Quote from MoveTimer:
Guys,
is it possible to trade JH method profitable on consistent basis using only the basic stuff: channels and PRV? No 2min YM, no STR/SQU, no DOM, etc.
Regarding bundle's trade... Using only the ES, that looks very similar to a trade I might have taken - but one thing that would have stopped me is the strength of the retrace. I like to look for reasons not to take trades, then I avoid the trap of rationalizing incorrectly why to take a trade sometimes. If I have no good reason not to take a trade, and I of course also have my reasons TO take the trade, I pull the trigger.
The retrace of the down channel was very robust - look at the "purity" of the bars -- there is practically no fighting, which strikes me as odd after such a fierce traverse down just occurred. A green bar opens at its low point and closes at its high point. In addition, the red bars look kind of flawish -- which is another clue that the dominant may have switched. Seeing this makes me second guess whether or not the next downward move will be very strong, if there is even one. Often times, these "pure" retraces, though still decreasing in volume, are the beginnings of a new channel, and a precursor to an X2X. So, while often a lower low will be the beginning of a down traverse, I allow for the possibility that the conditions upon which you made your entry bundle might just be a retrace of an up channel, especially since there is no increasing prv. Thus, I don't take the trade.
The retrace of the down channel was very robust - look at the "purity" of the bars -- there is practically no fighting, which strikes me as odd after such a fierce traverse down just occurred. A green bar opens at its low point and closes at its high point. In addition, the red bars look kind of flawish -- which is another clue that the dominant may have switched. Seeing this makes me second guess whether or not the next downward move will be very strong, if there is even one. Often times, these "pure" retraces, though still decreasing in volume, are the beginnings of a new channel, and a precursor to an X2X. So, while often a lower low will be the beginning of a down traverse, I allow for the possibility that the conditions upon which you made your entry bundle might just be a retrace of an up channel, especially since there is no increasing prv. Thus, I don't take the trade.
Next trade....
The arrow points at my long entry @ 1503.00. Earlier in that bar I didn't call out an FTT because volume was so low that according to our rule of thumb it should have been a flaw. Once the whole bar retraced I labeled the FTT.
I chose to go long at this point, recognizing that I would have to sit through a pullback to pt3. So often I have missed the pt3 entires becuase they happen so fast or pt2 just keeps going. I see no way other than prediction to avoid this kind of entry.
Next bar still holding on decreasing red.
Next bar I see mixxed signals. My up tape is broke on inc red prv, BUT the bigger picture sayes continuation up ( the bigger picture being this bar's prv is lower red than the prior gaussian peak).
Exit at 1500.00.
I entered at acceptable time of day on increasing volume. I followed through the instructions until the instructions gave mixxed signal, at which time I used the siganl from the bigger picutre (ie NOT bar to bar but rather the gaussian).
The arrow points at my long entry @ 1503.00. Earlier in that bar I didn't call out an FTT because volume was so low that according to our rule of thumb it should have been a flaw. Once the whole bar retraced I labeled the FTT.
I chose to go long at this point, recognizing that I would have to sit through a pullback to pt3. So often I have missed the pt3 entires becuase they happen so fast or pt2 just keeps going. I see no way other than prediction to avoid this kind of entry.
Next bar still holding on decreasing red.
Next bar I see mixxed signals. My up tape is broke on inc red prv, BUT the bigger picture sayes continuation up ( the bigger picture being this bar's prv is lower red than the prior gaussian peak).
Exit at 1500.00.
I entered at acceptable time of day on increasing volume. I followed through the instructions until the instructions gave mixxed signal, at which time I used the siganl from the bigger picutre (ie NOT bar to bar but rather the gaussian).
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Quote from Pr0crast:
Regarding bundle's trade... Using only the ES, that looks very similar to a trade I might have taken - but one thing that would have stopped me is the strength of the retrace. I like to look for reasons not to take trades, then I avoid the trap of rationalizing incorrectly why to take a trade sometimes. If I have no good reason not to take a trade, and I of course also have my reasons TO take the trade, I pull the trigger.
The retrace of the down channel was very robust - look at the "purity" of the bars -- there is practically no fighting, which strikes me as odd after such a fierce traverse down just occurred. A green bar opens at its low point and closes at its high point. In addition, the red bars look kind of flawish -- which is another clue that the dominant may have switched. Seeing this makes me second guess whether or not the next downward move will be very strong, if there is even one. Often times, these "pure" retraces, though still decreasing in volume, are the beginnings of a new channel, and a precursor to an X2X. So, while often a lower low will be the beginning of a down traverse, I allow for the possibility that the conditions upon which you made your entry bundle might just be a retrace of an up channel, especially since there is no increasing prv. Thus, I don't take the trade.
Thank you for your comments. I commend you if you are able to think things through this way. For me, what you do is so subjective that it hinders rather than helps. In the past I used to try and think this way and it caused me to never take a trade. I got into over analysis. I hope this isn't a necessary skill, as this would be an extraordinarily uncomfortable way for me to trade.
Spyder,
equties method uses 'stock universe' (EPS ranking etc). My question was about futures intraday trading.
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