Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from The Swordsman:

...I'm not quite sure why you have 11:00 bar as a pt 3 of an up channel?
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I don't draw the forest level gau anymore but consider from 1025 to 1055 dec red volume then from 1055 to 1105 inc blk volume, with an intrabar gau change on the 1105 bar. I've noticed several times I can have a pt 3 form and the very next bar is the FTT.

-Mike
 
When in doubt, I glance at the 1min es w/o drawing lines or gaussians. But for this discussion, it could be drawn this way:

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1646238>
Quote from cnms2:

Yes. I concur: FTT in the up green channel.

EDIT: and a very asymmetrical R2R 1105 to 1125.
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Using the 10:05 bar as an FTT, we already have an up channel that forms and then another ftt follows (10:30). Next bar is a BO on increased down vol (10:35). This is what I dont understand about the 11:00 bar as a pt 3 up. That up channel is dead as price exited on increased red and so we search for pt 3 down in this case.

Am I wrong? Price acted the way it should have based on my channels, its just that actually placing a trade during either the 11 or 11:05 bar was tough today. I would have sold intrabar during the 11:05 bar but PRV was increasing blk. If prv was decreasing as price was rising in that bar, selling would have been easy. Guess I just dont know how to sell that pt 3 w/o feeling uncomfortable.

Quote from Avi 8:

I've noticed several times I can have a pt 3 form and the very next bar is the FTT.

-Mike
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Quote from The Swordsman:

...Am I wrong? ...
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NO! The channel you described, I do not have drawn as it was pretty close to my 'tape'. I just used my experience to draw that larger channel. The slope of the channel you describe is very steep and I just anticipated a new pt 3 would come along. It did and I drew the larger channel. Now nothing says how long the channel will last, and we see it 'died' on the next two bars.

Good job seeing the short on the 1105 bar, just think of the sequence for volume at that time: inc blk -to- dec red. Not inc blk -to- dec blk -to- dec red, although that can happen. Remember inc blk for price to 'continue' rising, if not inc blk then what? Anticipate change. Then what came next? Inc red volume.

-Mike
 
I think that could've been a tough call, depending on what fractal you traded. If you traded pt3 traverses on that resolution, you could've re-entered long on the 1100 bar, then wash or take a small loss on the 1110 bar, waiting for a pt3 down. Small losses are part of trading. The important thing is not to be stunned, and hold on previous conclusions when data changed, expecting the price to conform to your analysis, instead of continuously doing MADA. And: when you don't understand it's safer to get out.
Quote from The Swordsman:

Using the 10:05 bar as an FTT, we already have an up channel that forms and then another ftt follows (10:30). Next bar is a BO on increased down vol (10:35). This is what I dont understand about the 11:00 bar as a pt 3 up. That up channel is dead as price exited on increased red and so we search for pt 3 down in this case.

Am I wrong? Price acted the way it should have based on my channels, its just that actually placing a trade during either the 11 or 11:05 bar was tough today. I would have sold intrabar during the 11:05 bar but PRV was increasing blk. If prv was decreasing as price was rising in that bar, selling would have been easy. Guess I just dont know how to sell that pt 3 w/o feeling uncomfortable.
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