Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Haroki:

...snip...On to formations

1-FBP- nope
2-FTP- nope
3- SYM - could be this one too, price range fits about how one would expect for a SYM, although I would expect the first inside bar to be > 50% of prev volume.

So it has to be either dip, SYM, or odd harmonic/spike.

Looked at Spyder's chart and he has a SYM. Questioned answered on what it WAS.

Now, is there a way to tell which one it was quicker? Or just keep all 3 in mind and decide during the next bar?
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"for a SYM, although I would expect the first inside bar to be > 50% of prev volume".

Where did you get this idea? All I recall from this journal was to expect reduced volume on the inside bar(s).

Once you recognize a potential pennant this quote from Spy on 09-21-07, 05:44 PM EST, pg 997 spells out what to do/not do:

"If you draw in the formations as soon as the second bar in the formation develops, you'll easily see the market has paused to ask you, "Are you sure you are on the right side of the market?" One needs no other tools, but the ES chart and PRV, to see this phenomenon unfold. While inside the formation, price often oscillates - as does volume color. However, none of this matters until Price breaks out of the formation (and the High / Low of the previous bar). Until this event occurs (Price Breakout on increasing Volume) there is nothing to do but wait. No action to take, No question to answer."
 
Quote from R/R:

"for a SYM, although I would expect the first inside bar to be > 50% of prev volume".

Where did you get this idea? All I recall from this journal was to expect reduced volume on the inside bar(s).

Once you recognize a potential pennant this quote from Spy on 09-21-07, 05:44 PM EST, pg 997 spells out what to do/not do:

"If you draw in the formations as soon as the second bar in the formation develops, you'll easily see the market has paused to ask you, "Are you sure you are on the right side of the market?" One needs no other tools, but the ES chart and PRV, to see this phenomenon unfold. While inside the formation, price often oscillates - as does volume color. However, none of this matters until Price breaks out of the formation (and the High / Low of the previous bar). Until this event occurs (Price Breakout on increasing Volume) there is nothing to do but wait. No action to take, No question to answer."
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Well, I get it from reviewing Spyder's charts. Appx 1/4 have <50% or less volume compared to the prior bar. Most are around 70-80%, from my observation....
 
Quote from ehorn:

YM2-ES5 10-12-2007
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good job on your first chart posted.
I see some trendline detail items but your Gaussians seem to be the greater issue.
1) can you get your volume bars in synch with price bar color? It looks like they are coded for black = > volume than prev bar and vice versa for red.
2) I don't understand many of your Gaussian color schemes. Remember left side trough to peak = channel dominant traverse correlation, (black for up and red for down) and right side peak to trough = retrace.
 
Quote from Haroki:

Well, I get it from reviewing Spyder's charts. Appx 1/4 have <50% or less volume compared to the prior bar. Most are around 70-80%, from my observation....
More...
ok thanks. I have taken the view from recent syllabus material that perhaps we should now be focusing more on the formations for change vs continuation input, and less on FTT/Flaw differentiation. (Obviously this is resolution level sensitive.)

Another quote from Spy:
09-21-07, 07:45 PM EST, pg 998
"Bottom line, if you can differentiate (now with the assistance of formations) between the market modes, you do not need to know when you have an FTT. You simply need to know continuation or change."
 
The purpose of drawing price channels and volume gaussians is to help us better read the current market sentiment, and to make a projection into the future. So if you feel that what you draw helps you, it means that you're doing it right. If you don't feel so, it means that you don't know yet how to do it.

One way to practice is to draw in real time during market hours or using a charting software that has a reply (tivo like) feature. Another way to practice is to take past days at which your charting application has access, and draw bar by bar covering the right side of the chart so you see only up to the current bar. Then unveil the next bar and draw more, then next ...

Each one of us may develop a slightly different approach in drawing channels and gaussians, as there is no unique right way of doing so. On the other hand, what you draw has to make sense. When you draw your gaussians to agree with the price action, quite often their color and their span will be different from what you'd draw just by following the volume bars' color and amplitude.

Put side by side your chart and spydertrader's chart, and analyze bar by bar the differences. Try to understand by yourself why he drew the way he drew. Eventually if you get stuck and can't figure it out yourself post your question with the chart snippet that you need help with.
Quote from ehorn:

YM2-ES5 10-12-2007
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Thanks R/R! Spot on in your assessment of the volume color coding. and thanks very much for taking the time to review and note the deficiencies. I will work on the volume color coding, tidying up the tapes and channels and syncing up the gaussians.

Quote from R/R:

good job on your first chart posted.
I see some trendline detail items but your Gaussians seem to be the greater issue.
1) can you get your volume bars in synch with price bar color? It looks like they are coded for black = > volume than prev bar and vice versa for red.
2) I don't understand many of your Gaussian color schemes. Remember left side trough to peak = channel dominant traverse correlation, (black for up and red for down) and right side peak to trough = retrace.
More...
 
Will do and thanks for the feedback cnms2!

Quote from cnms2:

Put side by side your chart and spydertrader's chart, and analyze bar by bar the differences. Try to understand by yourself why he drew the way he drew. Eventually if you get stuck and can't figure it out yourself post your question with the chart snippet that you need help with.
More...
 
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