Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Haroki:

Agree absolutely that it was a FTT/pt1. Your analysis is confirmed by subsequent bars.

But put yourself back at 14:40 (see attached ) . Without knowing what comes next, what would you see the :40 bar as? < 50% of prev bar's volume, think flaw of dom traverse (up-as determined by previous inc black), right? And so a continuation of the up move. It didn't work out that way though.

A spike/reversal bar is, I believe, one way how an odd harmonic manifests itself. To be clear about why I'm asking all this, if this IS an odd harmonic/spike/reversal bar, then I need to brush up on recognizing harmonics. An area that made my eyes "glass over" when I was studying it. :D :D

This is important to me cuz I seem to notice 1-3 of these every day, where a trader on the tree level ( my next level of proficiency) would want to "hold long" through this flaw, only to get smacked when the subsequent bar breaks the channel. Recognizing this odd harmonic - if I'm correct in identifying it as such - would have gotten you out a pt earlier....

As a note, the flaw recognition worked for the 14:10 bar.
More...

Ok, decided to figger this out myself-

1-can't be a hitch, too much price range
2-stall- prolly still too much range
3- HVS - nope
4-CCC-nope
5-dip- maybe, has nearly as much range as prev bar, less than 50% of prev bar's volume.

On to formations

1-FBP- nope
2-FTP- nope
3- SYM - could be this one too, price range fits about how one would expect for a SYM, although I would expect the first inside bar to be > 50% of prev volume.

So it has to be either dip, SYM, or odd harmonic/spike.

Looked at Spyder's chart and he has a SYM. Questioned answered on what it WAS.

Now, is there a way to tell which one it was quicker? Or just keep all 3 in mind and decide during the next bar?
 
Haroki

Without looking at the chart to see what came next after the 14:40 bar, this is what I observe:-

1. a symmetrical triangle forming
2. decreasing red volume
3. the inside bar closes lower
4. I draw symmetrical triangle
5. I'm anticipating a downside move with increased red volume

:D
 
A flaw on one fractal is a traverse or a channel on a faster fractal. You should hold through it because you shouldn't react to faster fractal changes. Occasionally what you perceive as being a flaw on your trading fractal (a temporary change on a faster fractal) proves to be the beginning of a change on your fractal. This is because every change on your fractal coincides with a change on each of the faster fractals.

# of changes on your trading fractal <
# of changes on the next faster fractal <
# of changes ...

In such situations you should try to recognize a.s.a.p. that "that wasn't a flaw" but a reversal, and act accordingly.

It is possible to see a bar having volume less than 40% of the previous bar and not to have a flaw but a reversal. And it is possible that a bar with volume larger than 60% of the previous bar to actually mean continuation in the same direction ...

All (or at least almost all) rules have exceptions. There's nothing you can do about it, except to try to correctly interpret them a.s.a.p. and react accordingly.

I don't quite understand why you say that the 14:10 bar was a flaw, and this helped. That was actually the beginning of the retrace in my green channel.

It would be interesting to discuss actual trades: entry point and why, what to expect after that entry, when to exit because it failed, where to exit because it succeeded.

When you enter a point 3 do you plan to trade the traverse and exit? Do you plan to reverse at LTL? Do you know clearly what is your trade container?

I'd be interested to see how others think about and execute these.

I believe that some people might have uncalibrated expectations about what forest, point 3, etc. trading can accomplish, and even about what SCT means and can deliver, function of your level of expertise.

A beginner should only take the less risky trades, and this comes with diminished profit expectations. There is no such thing as "less risk but same profit". If your trade spans over a longer period, it doesn't mean that it will necessarily bring higher profit. But if you shoot for it (higher profit by holding longer through retraces), you shouldn't be surprised when your small win turns into a loss.

Any way ... Long post ...
Quote from Haroki:

Agree absolutely that it was a FTT/pt1. Your analysis is confirmed by subsequent bars.

But put yourself back at 14:40 (see attached ) . Without knowing what comes next, what would you see the :40 bar as? < 50% of prev bar's volume, think flaw of dom traverse (up-as determined by previous inc black), right? And so a continuation of the up move. It didn't work out that way though.

A spike/reversal bar is, I believe, one way how an odd harmonic manifests itself. To be clear about why I'm asking all this, if this IS an odd harmonic/spike/reversal bar, then I need to brush up on recognizing harmonics. An area that made my eyes "glass over" when I was studying it. :D :D

This is important to me cuz I seem to notice 1-3 of these every day, where a trader on the tree level ( my next level of proficiency) would want to "hold long" through this flaw, only to get smacked when the subsequent bar breaks the channel. Recognizing this odd harmonic - if I'm correct in identifying it as such - would have gotten you out a pt earlier....

As a note, the flaw recognition worked for the 14:10 bar.
More...
 
Quote from cnms2:

A flaw on one fractal is a traverse or a channel on a faster fractal. You should hold through it because you shouldn't react to faster fractal changes. Occasionally what you perceive as being a flaw on your trading fractal (a temporary change on a faster fractal) proves to be the beginning of a change on your fractal. This is because every change on your fractal coincides with a change on each of the faster fractals.

# of changes on your trading fractal <
# of changes on the next faster fractal <
# of changes ...

In such situations you should try to recognize a.s.a.p. that "that wasn't a flaw" but a reversal, and act accordingly.

It is possible to see a bar having volume less than 40% of the previous bar and not to have a flaw but a reversal. And it is possible that a bar with volume larger than 60% of the previous bar to actually mean continuation in the same direction ...

All (or at least almost all) rules have exceptions. There's nothing you can do about it, except to try to correctly interpret them a.s.a.p. and react accordingly.

I don't quite understand why you say that the 14:10 bar was a flaw, and this helped. That was actually the beginning of the retrace in my green channel.

It would be interesting to discuss actual trades: entry point and why, what to expect after that entry, when to exit because it failed, where to exit because it succeeded.

When you enter a point 3 do you plan to trade the traverse and exit? Do you plan to reverse at LTL? Do you know clearly what is your trade container?

I'd be interested to see how others think about and execute these.

I believe that some people might have uncalibrated expectations about what forest, point 3, etc. trading can accomplish, and even about what SCT means and can deliver, function of your level of expertise.

A beginner should only take the less risky trades, and this comes with diminished profit expectations. There is no such thing as "less risk but same profit". If your trade spans over a longer period, it doesn't mean that it will necessarily bring higher profit. But if you shoot for it (higher profit by holding longer through retraces), you shouldn't be surprised when your small win turns into a loss.

Any way ... Long post ...
More...

YES!!!
This is the wake up call I was missing.

I'm doing the bead and butter trades only - forest level, pt3 to LTL, just like Bearbelly has described. No holding through retraces, I definitely know I'm not prepared for that, plus it seems counterintuitive for me right now. As far as exits, when it doesn't reach the ltl, i get out as soon I see a FTT. Sometimes these are still profitable, sometimes not, depends on how far price has moved in the dom direction, but by the great majority, these are still good.

But I've been trying to put in the tree level channels also, cuz that is the next level. Here's where the difficulty ensued with the sequence for me - typically, I'll start out putting in the tape channel, and with QT's "anchoring" of a trend line end, move the line to fit the channel when I get a pt3 for THAT tree level channel, and then add my LTL. I didn't have a pt3 for that, it was still a tape. :eek: So I shouldn't even have been looking at it as a place to trade, given my current proficiency level, or even for my next anticipated skill level.

You're right, the 14:10 wasn't a flaw, I have that area as dec red too. I simply mis-spoke. I DO know better, even though that comment made it seem otherwise. :D
 
I look at the 5 minute chart, then drop down to 2 min to see if things are any clearer, what do you think?

bothchartssidebyside.png


:D
 
This is my Friday es chart, with reasonably good change points for SCT trading, in my opinion.

I don't claim those to be my trades

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Very interesting cnms2.:p
 
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