Pretty Cool. Thanks for sharing.
- Spydertrader
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
- Status
Pretty Cool. Thanks for sharing.
- Spydertrader
Very useful indeed.
I am sure that my confusion stems from getting clear in my mind what constitutes change at the tree level. In this example, I was anticipating the FTT. In my effort to not reach a decision on price alone, I have assumed that prv must be part of the data set. Your description suggests that a " break of tape" is also a valid data point at tree level and this I had not fully appreciated. I had thought it feasible to identify the ftt, at tree level, prior to a tape break but on reflection, this would clearly involve intra bar analysis with finer tools, and a trip down the rabbit hole.
Thank you.
I have attached my morning portion of the ES chart from friday since this was the area that was significantly different from spyder's.
I am noting Pt3 entries as I go along and I look for pt3 entries in the dominant direction. I have marked the two point 3 entries that I noted in the chart. The first one FTTed pretty quickly and price headed down.
I never drew the dashed blue line in my chart, I added it after spyder posted his chart.
Did anyone see a reason to go short before my first long entry (perhaps where the dashed blue line created a pt 3 (pt 2 of my green up channel)?
Anyways, If anyone has comments on the pt3 entries I have annotated, I would appreciate any feedback.
If the first few bars of the day was increasing red, without a doubt the pt3 of the dashed blue line would have been a pt 3 entry short.
I am noting Pt3 entries as I go along and I look for pt3 entries in the dominant direction. I have marked the two point 3 entries that I noted in the chart. The first one FTTed pretty quickly and price headed down.
I never drew the dashed blue line in my chart, I added it after spyder posted his chart.
Did anyone see a reason to go short before my first long entry (perhaps where the dashed blue line created a pt 3 (pt 2 of my green up channel)?
Anyways, If anyone has comments on the pt3 entries I have annotated, I would appreciate any feedback.
If the first few bars of the day was increasing red, without a doubt the pt3 of the dashed blue line would have been a pt 3 entry short.
Your note "Decreasing red. Assumed retrace of up trend" was actually correct. Friday began with a down retrace following Thursday's uptrend. It lasted until 10:50 am. In the bigger picture, it was followed by an uptrend to an FTT at 12:30 pm, when the sentiment changed short (on that larger fractal).
Also, don't forget the beginning & end of day extraordinary volume activity.
Also, don't forget the beginning & end of day extraordinary volume activity.
You are most welcome.
Remember, we aren't quite yet to the point of 'trading' off data elements. We simply want to learn to differentiate continuation from change. To take your example one step further, once you see the above 'Price' signal for change (one data point), one then looks for an additional piece of the puzzle (another data point) in order to arrive at a 'sufficient data set.' Here is where we add context. Since we know certain sequences must unfold in order to be able to say, "Yup, that was an FTT alright!" We begin by locating the first domino which must fall - a signal for change.
- Spydertrader
Edit: Why is all this important? Once internalized, this process sets the stage for anticipating change in advance of the sequences. This is what Jack refers to as "running several bars in front of the market."
Can you see the difference between the first and second P3 you identify and their gaussians? The second one is a forest level B2B in my book, whereas the first one is not - this is what was driving me nuts. The price action confuses the issue because it is more volatile earlier on, making you think you have a change in dominant, but the volume tells another story. You can see it in the chart I posted above. I require bars to extend beyond the prior bar before I determine the gaussian, whereas Spyder is effectively annotating intra-bar gaussian shifts and splitting bars.
- Status