For me your picture is too small to extract all the info, but it is a decreasing black on that fractal, probably a level 1 channel. The red spike may indicate a beginning of an increasing red, or that the channel is an up retrace in a down higher level (2) channel. To judge the volume, I also look at the price context because black / red is just a binary filter and doesn't tell the whole story.
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Wow. I finally see it and without YM!
I will not use YM in the next days. Must be a sign
Ivo
I will not use YM in the next days. Must be a sign
Ivo
Quote from Avi 8:
Sorry guys, I just bought a seat on the CBOT and tripped over some wires trying to get to it.
So in the meantime I just noticed a print on T&S at 14:53:54 for 1,101 contracts. Is this Jack using binary signals to other traders?
Saw this the other day: There are 10 kinds of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don't.
-Mike
P.S. How ironic, check out my number of posts.
What is a fractal envelope? I've been studying the Hershey method for months. Never heard this term. Do you mean channels within the forest? And if so, how does that answer my question? I appreciate your help.
Thank you very much for your answer MAK.
If you have a down channel going towards RTL of a bigger up channel do you assume the bigger channel will break if there's no clear FBO of FTT before BO? For example my 15:40 bar I thought it would be a Double bottom FTT. However, had the bigger up channel not be in place I would probably not have looked for this FTT at all.
But the whole situation was quite simple. There was a down channel, period. The down channel continuing automatically means the up channel is broken and we can expect another 1-2-3 down. Is this the correct way of thinking?
So I notice I assume too much. Something like: "Price went up with so much force, this channel will probably not break". The result is I look for the FTT at RTL and if you look really hard and want to find one you always will find one. I think this is called predicting
regards,
Ivo
If you have a down channel going towards RTL of a bigger up channel do you assume the bigger channel will break if there's no clear FBO of FTT before BO? For example my 15:40 bar I thought it would be a Double bottom FTT. However, had the bigger up channel not be in place I would probably not have looked for this FTT at all.
But the whole situation was quite simple. There was a down channel, period. The down channel continuing automatically means the up channel is broken and we can expect another 1-2-3 down. Is this the correct way of thinking?
So I notice I assume too much. Something like: "Price went up with so much force, this channel will probably not break". The result is I look for the FTT at RTL and if you look really hard and want to find one you always will find one. I think this is called predicting
regards,
Ivo
09-19-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
Quote from ivob:
Thank you very much for your answer MAK.
If you have a down channel going towards RTL of a bigger up channel do you assume the bigger channel will break if there's no clear FBO of FTT before BO? For example my 15:40 bar I thought it would be a Double bottom FTT. However, had the bigger up channel not be in place I would probably not have looked for this FTT at all.
But the whole situation was quite simple. There was a down channel, period. The down channel continuing automatically means the up channel is broken and we can expect another 1-2-3 down. Is this the correct way of thinking?
So I notice I assume too much. Something like: "Price went up with so much force, this channel will probably not break". The result is I look for the FTT at RTL and if you look really hard and want to find one you always will find one. I think this is called predicting
regards,
Ivo
So here's where things are different FOR ME. A bigger channel for me is something I annotate on a larger fractal, say 15M/20M/30M and overlay on the 5M. If you are a beginner, we stick with the program and do forest level stuff. A forest level is simply exiting when you walk out of the forest. I seam to keep making the mistake that I can post from my perspective. As a result, it is not useful for me to verify the correct way of thinking since each one of your Qs seams to steer me towards misunderstanding what it is that you actually understand. On your chart for example, the current bar looks indecisive with what you would actually do. You have a black RTL starting at 2:25 and then stops at 3:55. However, if it extends through and into the right side of your screen, would the current bar be telling you anything? For me it would, especially since it is time to distinguish BO from FBO. Right there, you were 57 seconds into your bar and PRV is RED. Do you CHANGE or CONTINUE?
As for the double bottom 2:40 FTT...
...Clear FBO of FTT before BO...
...I'm not sure if we are on the same page?...
MAK
Hi Mak,
Sorry for the misunderstanding.
have a black RTL starting at 2:25 and then stops at 3:55
I think you mean 3:25 - 3:55
This is just a helpline, something temporary that I forgot to remove. The current downchannel channel is formed by the grey line. Sorry.
However, if it extends through and into the right side of your screen, would the current bar be telling you anything
Sure. It would say FBO and had I been long I would go short at this very moment. Note this is last 5 min of the day so good moment to close positions.
As for the double bottom 2:40 FTT......
It's 3:40 pm (15:40). I thought this was a double bottom FTT but I guess I should have waited for the bar to be taken out by the next bar on the upside. The problem is I was really looking too much at the black RTL. (pt1 - pt3 in the screen. I called this a "bigger channel" but that's not the correct name) and expecting an FBO or FTT although the bars said otherwise.
This was a mistake. Just the fact that there's an RTL does not mean that price will respect it. I guess I answered my own question already. There's continuation until we see change (FBO or FTT)
regards,
Ivo
Sorry for the misunderstanding.
have a black RTL starting at 2:25 and then stops at 3:55
I think you mean 3:25 - 3:55
This is just a helpline, something temporary that I forgot to remove. The current downchannel channel is formed by the grey line. Sorry.
However, if it extends through and into the right side of your screen, would the current bar be telling you anything
Sure. It would say FBO and had I been long I would go short at this very moment. Note this is last 5 min of the day so good moment to close positions.
As for the double bottom 2:40 FTT...
...It's 3:40 pm (15:40). I thought this was a double bottom FTT but I guess I should have waited for the bar to be taken out by the next bar on the upside. The problem is I was really looking too much at the black RTL. (pt1 - pt3 in the screen. I called this a "bigger channel" but that's not the correct name) and expecting an FBO or FTT although the bars said otherwise.
This was a mistake. Just the fact that there's an RTL does not mean that price will respect it. I guess I answered my own question already. There's continuation until we see change (FBO or FTT)
regards,
Ivo
Quote from makosgu:
So here's where things are different FOR ME. A bigger channel for me is something I annotate on a larger fractal, say 15M/20M/30M and overlay on the 5M. If you are a beginner, we stick with the program and do forest level stuff. A forest level is simply exiting when you walk out of the forest. I seam to keep making the mistake that I can post from my perspective. As a result, it is not useful for me to verify the correct way of thinking since each one of your Qs seams to steer me towards misunderstanding what it is that you actually understand. On your chart for example, the current bar looks indecisive with what you would actually do. You have a black RTL starting at 2:25 and then stops at 3:55. However, if it extends through and into the right side of your screen, would the current bar be telling you anything? For me it would, especially since it is time to distinguish BO from FBO. Right there, you were 57 seconds into your bar and PRV is RED. Do you CHANGE or CONTINUE?
As for the double bottom 2:40 FTT...
Clear FBO of FTT before BO...
I'm not sure if we are on the same page?...
MAK
Tightening your channels along the way - making them steeper or faster pace:
This makes sense. The shallower channels are still in effect until their respective BOs. So do YOU then anticipate a sequence of FTTs of each channel in order of steepness?
i.e. FTT of steep channel = P1, FTT of shallower channel = P3 etc.
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