Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Hi Mak,

Thanks for the answer.

What exactly is XO? and "clearing" of RTL?

I suppose XO = RTL being crossed and clearing is Breakout?

What do you recommend for a beginner?

I noticed that almost always after an FTT and decr. non dominant volume price will at least try to break RTL. There are not many FBO's without price even trying to break RTL.

It's the flaws that do not even try to break RTL because price never gets there.

So considering this I think it would be wise to just exit at RTL being a beginner. Then wait what happens and possibly re-enter at VDU after BO.

regards,
Ivo




Quote from makosgu:

Would you say more often than not you see this type of thing? For me this is more of an exception. But then again, the xo are not hyper for me.

Usually here, I watch the accumulation and note which side of the DOM is falling out. In actuality, only 2 things can happen, either the bar "clears" the RTL or it FBOs. What you describe is going to be on a bar that is relatively low volume. In other words, on faster paced bars, the action will tend towards a cleaner break. For slower paced RTL BO/FBOs, I reinforce my dataset by sweeping the more finer details like the DOM, cumulative bid/ask volume, especiallly STR/SQU and YM. It is only a 5M bar, the flip flopping, which for me is the DOM 2 pairing, can only happen so many times. I usually consider myself to be early to the party, call it 3 ticks if you will. So while you may see P flip flopping across your RTL, I am sweeping the tick chart to see the DOM BID/ASK 2 pairing away and watching closely for one of the pairs to start STICKING and for a spike to begin which would then tell me otherwise.

As for the "ultimately", there is no waiting several bars to evaluate whether the action was right. Ultimately, it either is a XO/BO or FBO. Volume picks it off a good deal of the time. If I am taking action at a RTL, then I am already late to the party since the FTT was before the RTL. The RTL is my safety net for doping around and not seizing the FTT. If I am being snotty, I restrict myself to 2 actions per bar, REVERSE for XO/BO, RE-REVERSE for FBO. The characteristics for XO/BO is usually very different than for an FBO. It may be worthwhile for you to sort out the particulars so that you can recognize them...

MAK
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Unfortunately this didnt work today. Highest down volume 9:50, price went all the way back up to new highs without ever going back down to peak volume prices.

Quote from bi9foot:

Hey Spooz,

I tend to agree with Ivob. When I see the highest volume for the day, I take it to mean that the trend will continue. That is I am expecting the possibility of at least on more dominant traverse after the traverse that gave the peak volume.
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Quote from The Swordsman:

Unfortunately this didnt work today. Highest down volume 9:50, price went all the way back up to new highs without ever going back down to peak volume prices.
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this morning has been very strange. I too thought red was dominant, oh how that was wrong. Was this a LTL bounce that changed sentiment? Or does the CO channel negate the highest volume ?
 
Quote from Jander:

this morning has been very strange. I too thought red was dominant, oh how that was wrong. Was this a LTL bounce that changed sentiment? Or does the CO channel negate the highest volume ?
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Yeah, very strange.

Again same flaw story....

9:55 looks 100% like a flaw.

BTW of course I had the steeper channel there. Was just waiting for pt3 down which came at 10:10 but failed and turned into a reversal.



regards,
Ivo
 

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For me, I never had a down channel off of the 9:35 bar since I could never get 3 seperate points. So during the retrace I was looking for pt 3 to sell in order to get that 3rd point. But watching the DOM, along with everything else, I couldnt get a good read on where to do it. The only time I did was intrabar 10:10 as PRV was waning, but even then I didnt sell because the overall vibe just didnt feel right. Once we touched the highs at 10:25, I knew our previous gaussian was dead, and I anticipated that, because of the way prices acted, we would get a flip in the gaussians and sure enough 10:55 provided that flip. I did get long around 10:45 anticipating we'd go higher.
 
Quote from The Swordsman:

Unfortunately this didnt work today. Highest down volume 9:50, price went all the way back up to new highs without ever going back down to peak volume prices.
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Here is my chart for the morning. I was expecting a the dominant down to continue.

This is exactly the reason why I mentioned that I have found that some of these generalizations are best ignored as they seem to cause me to let my guard down.

EDIT: Ignore the pennant I had drawn at the 10:30 bar. I had drawn it while the bar was forming and forgot to erase it when the 10:35 bar ceased to be a inside bar.
 

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It seems to be one of those things where the gaussian says that we should retest the lows, but when we dont, the underlying market is saying that its very strong, today was case in point I think.
 
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