Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Spydertrader:

09-06-2007 ES Chart

Note the attached chart how ehn Price fails to break out of a formation (Price leaves the formation then returns to the formation) the next bar becomes the key to price direction.

- Spydertrader
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S,

I noticed on this chart that you seem to take "artistic license" drawing the pennants. For example the FBP at 1335-1340, the top of the second bar breaksout of it. I am confused how you drew the pennant and have a BO of it while the formation is forming.

Hope you understand the question.

Doug

ps=most of the year I have been in catch up mode and this is about as current as I've been.
 
Quote from dougcs:

I noticed on this chart that you seem to take "artistic license" drawing the pennants. For example the FBP at 1335-1340, the top of the second bar breaksout of it. I am confused how you drew the pennant and have a BO of it while the formation is forming.
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The area to which you refer (on my chart) shows a lower high and equivalent lows on two adjacent bars. Hence a flat bottom pennant. I could have drawn these areas in to scale (extending the hypotenuse across several bars), but see no reason for doing so. The slope of the hypotenuse isn't relevant to the question of whether or not a pennant exists.

As such, the second bar didn't "break out" of anything. It formed the pennant formation. See Attached.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1600776>
 

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Spydertrader,

You had mentioned about a month ago, that we should be able to tell if the day would form an M day, or a W day, within the first three bars of the morning open.

The first three bars look, as if they set the trend at the moment.
I have noticed that there are times in the day, that seam to affect the trend.
They can take place many times around 11:00- 11:30, 12:30- 1:30, and around 2:30- 3:30.

These times look as if what gives the day the M or W shape.

Combined with the 3 bar trend at open, and the times that look, as if they shape the day,
Would I be correct here in my analysis, that this is what forms the W or M days, and can be seen within the first 3 bars?

This is a chart of the 5 minute ES, with the first three bars on volume marked for trend, along with arrows shaping the day, on the times I have noticed.

Any feedback on this is great.
 

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Quote from Spydertrader:

For the sake of your example above, let's assume a trader catches the FTT at the exact point of change (be it exact tic, exact volume 'at some point' or at close of bar - doesn't matter). Now, what must come next? Just as you outlined, decreasing Volume must take Price back to the RTL. As long as this continues to occur, do you want to take a trade? Of course you don't, you are holding through awaiting the break out. snip . . .
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Spydertrader,

This may be a dumb question but for the sake of clarification since we are talking about the Forest FTT's in this post:

Should we be looking for a 1,2,3 FTT (ex: the point 3 being an FTT before the BO) for change or,

if we think we have an FTT at the #1 point near the LTL, is it ok at the Forest level to take that one?

Seems that if one is comfortable with both either would work, though trying to nail the LTL FTT's takes more experience and can lead to dropping resolution levels if not careful.

Comments? - EZ
 
Quote from TIKITRADER:

Would I be correct here in my analysis, that this is what forms the W or M days, and can be seen within the first 3 bars?
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Nope.

Quote from Ezzy:

If we think we have an FTT at the #1 point near the LTL, is it ok at the Forest level to take that one?
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Yep.

- Spydertrader
 
Wondering how others handled the following scenario:

10:50 (approx) short entry and held until 11:20 when the price and vol. sequences indicated a reversal.

11:20 reversed long.

11:25 there is close just above RTL
(Pt1 = 10:40, Pt2 10:45, Pt3 10:45).

11:25 volume bar has close slightly (on my charts) less than previous bar. Not concerned as anticipating dec. volume to RTL.

11:30 bar moves up from open and then moves down to close right at 20 SMA. Hold approx. until close of 11:35 bar when convinced up move is over.

YM price and volume sequences support up move until 11:30 bar close.

Since market close I have reconfigured my channels to reflect a retrace of the initial down move and have the 11:30 bar as a (fanned out) Pt3.

I guess it was the volume pattern that threw me off because what developed at 11:20 initially seemed like a reversal rather than a retrace.
 
Quote from TIKITRADER:

I was just about to do the end-zone dance . . . * Blindsided*,

Spyder, was that you under that helmet ?
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Well... time to put the nose to the grindstone...


If you add the open vs close, you triple the possibilities.
If you add the gaussians... mmm, wait a minute... the permutation gets astronomical.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1601019">
 

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