Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Bearbelly]

Quote from guavaman:

Ivob,

For example as I write this; the period starting at 11:10 to 12:10 (yes I am aware it is lunch time but volume remained high) has been kind enough to provide a nice example of angst . Thanks to the volatility of this period I estimate a loss of at least 7 pts. Bummer .

When in doubt, get out! Seriously.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from guavaman:

For example as I write this; the period starting at 11:10 to 12:10 (yes I am aware it is lunch time but volume remained high) has been kind enough to provide a nice example of angst . Thanks to the volatility of this period I estimate a loss of at least 7 pts. Bummer .

I fail to see how such analysis aids your development. And for the record, you aren't the only one who focuses and what they cannot do.

If one cannot see the market Intra-bar, then one should stop attempting to trade, sym, analyze, monitor (whatever) on the Intra-bar level. The lines on the chart (channels) are there for a reason. Use them to guide your decision-making. If Intra-bar Volatility causes concerns, stop monitoring Intra-bar and fall back to a position of strength.

Everyone needs to start from a point where they can function. For some, this involves returning to the beginning. For others, it may mean focusing only on the dominant traverse. Additional individuals may need to focus more on flaw recognition. Whatever the 'point' in time where things appear clearer, is where people need to focus in an effort to create an environment of clarity. In other words, move 'somewhat clear' into the crystal clear category before progressing forward.

If no such 'point' in time exists, then you have your answer as to where to head next.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Spydertrader:

If one cannot see the market Intra-bar, then one should stop attempting to trade, sym, analyze, monitor (whatever) on the Intra-bar level.

For clarity purposes, the above quote does not infer one should not make decisions Intra-bar. I trust everyone understands the difference. If not, please let me know.

- Spydertrader

 

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

For clarity purposes, the above quote does not infer one should not make decisions Intra-bar. I trust everyone understands the difference. If not, please let me know.

- Spydertrader

Sorry I don't understand the difference. How can one make decisions intrabar if one is not monitoring and analyzing intrabar?

 

[Mr_Black]

This is my chart so far....

 

[Spydertrader]

At some point within the five minute bar, you know you cannot have change because, based on current PRV, actual volume will go beyond the previous volume bar.

At some point within the five minute bar, you know you cannot have continuation because, based on current PRV, actual volume will not go beyond the previous volume bar.

At some point within the five minute bar, you know you cannot have anything but a flaw because, based on current PRV, actual volume will not go beyond the 40% level.

"At some point" means it has become a near mathematical impossibility for Volume to do what needs to be done to invalidate the current hypothesis.

You should see this phenomenon unfold within 30 seconds to 1 minute all the way up to the end of the five minute bar. Some bars will require more time (perhaps just before the close of the bar) to reach the "at some point" moment. Other bars require much less time (very early in the bar). Since mathematics dictates when this "At some point" occurs, it differs for each and every bar.

Everyone should learn to 'know' how to determine the 'at some point' value for each and every bar.

- Spydertrader

 

[nkhoi]

watching carry over channel

 

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Everyone should learn to 'know' how to determine the 'at some point' value for each and every bar.

- Spydertrader

Bearing in mind that the definition of "change" and "continuation" depend upon what resolution one is trading at.....

 

[guavaman]

Quote from Bearbelly:

When in doubt, get out! Seriously.

Bearbelly, I appreciate the thought, but for me, that doesn't really advance the ball. To learn how to deal with market uncertainty I must deal with it, not hide from it. As difficult as this is at times, it is how I choose to learn.

The unhealthy side effect of this mindset is the occasional rant on ET .

 

[Dantheman]

clarity. not uncertainty. bread and butter. don't try to get cute before you're an expert. this stuff is not as hard as some of you want to make it.