Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[bundlemaker]

Quote from nkhoi:

until the 'official' guidance, here is my take.
12:20 long (first arrow) as I also saw b2b, decr red then incr blk.

13:00 short? this was at limb level down channel, point 2 of this limb channel was also the point 3 for the new up forest level channel. If I stayed focus at limb level I might shorted but since I already had point 3 of the new forest channel I was unlikely to short at 13:00, I would had long at 13:00 or 13:05 (second or third arrow) after seeing point 3 of the forest channel and seeing that the 13:00 red bar was unable to pass point 3.

Good stuff Nk,

You say my 13:00 "short" was limb level. I count nine (9) bars comprising what I say is a pt3 channel. We had a down tape, then a break of the down tape, then + prv down. How would you have read it different AT THAT TIME.

I saw clearly the pt3 which was the limb pt2, in real time. What do you use as a valid reason to ignore the increasing red that came in?

Now clearly, one could make the argument (not what sure based on) that one needs increasing volume from pt1 to pt2, which I don't have here. On the other hand, quite often you don't get that. One only needs to look at the period from 11:35 to 11:40 which constitutes a pt1 to pt2 and it's on decreasing volume.

As an aside, please note that those two bars (11:35 to 11:40) comprise the entire initial dominant traverse, so one can't really make the argument (as others have) that looking at two bars isn't forest level. It depends.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from Steve Tvardek:

Let me also make this perfectly clear, I learned everything I needed from Spydertrader to get to the point where I could go about it on my own; to personalize the way I go about my business, the way I see and take advantage of opportunities.

Perhaps you are too focused on seeing things through Spyders eyes to the detriment of seeing things through your own?

You may be right. I thought I was still stuck at the basics. Perhaps even the most fundamental concepts need to be absorbed in a personal way.

I hope this is not the case, because frankly, after 8 months, it's not likely a miracle will happen. I am aware of so much baggage from other methods, that my brain may simply be too clogged to get to that new perspective Spyder suggests.

Thanks again.

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from bundlemaker:

...
I saw clearly the pt3 which was the limb pt2, in real time. What do you use as a valid reason to ignore the increasing red that came in?

..

I will take this one. This pic end at 13:00 bar. I add the limb read down channel, as you can see p2 of red down channel then p3 of the forest up channel (pink trend line). There were 2 channel contexts to consider the incr red vol, red limb level down and pink level forest up. I saw that red bar 13:00 didn't pass p3 of the pink trendline, glancing back I also noted that the red vol was less than b2b vol of the forest channel. I guess my mind was more focus on the pink trend line than the red trend line.

 

[The Swordsman]

Honestly, I think you may just have to realize this and move on. It doesnt sound like your brain will be flexible enough to get to the point where you need to be to succeed at this.

Quote from bundlemaker:

I am aware of so much baggage from other methods, that my brain may simply be too clogged to get to that new perspective Spyder suggests.

 

[dkm]

Quote from bundlemaker:

Now clearly, one could make the argument (not what sure based on) that one needs increasing volume from pt1 to pt2, which I don't have here.

This is an important point. Price exited the long pt 3 channel at 12:35 on decreasing volume, suggesting that the RTL requires adjustment. We get a new pt3 long on the 12:50 bar.

The increasing red volume on the 13:00 bar, implies a pt 3 short at the high of the 12:55 bar. This corresponded to a pt3 short channel established on ym. Price did not break the RTL of the ym channel until 13:06, with es at 47.25. Using only es and ym, I think it would have been difficult to avoid a loss if one had assumed a short on the 13:00 bar (which I did!)

 

[Spydertrader]

I've been travelling all day, so I've missed the drama which has transpired. However, I offered this advice last week which (based on today's posts) appears to have been ignored. Oddly enough, everyone I have spoken to, who has successfully traded these methods, felt 'taking a break' helped them to succeed.

Take a break bundlemaker. You need it.

- Spydertrader

 

[TIKITRADER]

The forest in a different light.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Failure2Travers:

After seeing a BO, I took that as a sign for change.

If I am reading your chart correctly, the break out to which you refer occurred on decreasing Volume. If I incorrectly read your chart, please advise.

- Spydertrader

 

[esjockey]

bundlemaker,

Don't know if comments from an outside observer can be much help, but here goes.

Two things I notice when comparing the dom up at 11:35 to the nondom down at 12:25 :

1) the PORTION of the 11:35 bar's volume that comes after the mid-bar Pt.1 is probably smaller than the volume on the 11:40 bar (therefore, incr blk vol).

2) the decr vol after 12:25 is dropping into lower ranges, whereas the 11:35 & 11:40 were both in the extreme range. I think Jack has indicated the relative vol of extreme vol bars are less significant than when in the lower vol ranges.

FWIW

 

[Jason Rosen]

Spyder,

Could you give me a quick critique of my chart for today? I'm only about 1/4 of the way through this journal but I feel like I'm really beginning to understand the material. These journals are priceless!

Thanks in advance.