Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[bundlemaker]

Quote from Steve Tvardek:

Bob, where is your RTL of the down channel stemming from points 10:05 and 10:25 as pts 1 & 3 down? The upchannel starting from 11:35, has several instances of price walking outside that we fan and this keeps happening (IE we are still always in an upchannel) and then we BO that down channel at 10:25 on increasing volume.

Steve,

My practice (and confirmed ok via Spyder's review of my channels video) is that I do not draw in a new channel if the old channel is broke by only a couple ticks and then price goes right back into old channel. I also use Spyder's technique of using this phenomonen (b/o and return to channel) as a new pt1.

I understand what you say about the fanning, however, that doesn't have an impact on my pt3 decisions points. Each of my decision points set up with the proper sequence of FTT (assumed new pt1), a pt2 is made, retrace to pt3, and then increasing volume in the new channel direction.

Thanks for your post.

fyi- I didn't begin live annoations until the 11:35 EDT bar.

 

[Tums]

Quote from ivob:

You ask in the picture: which way to draw the blue line? It can be drawn but imo the tapes are more important. Point 3 is where the tape down is broken to the upside.

This how I read the price direction as well.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from ivob:

Hi,

This bar:
- just formed a point three up
- broke out of congestion area
- has relatively high volume and is large
- takes out 8 former bars
- closes almost at its high

You are getting volume here in the direction of the trend. It does not touch LTL but the next bar could just as be the continuation of this bar and touch LTL (or not).

I would wait for the end of the next bar and then ask myself: did we have an FTT here? If price would go like crazy to RTL on the next bar or two without trying to go to LTL then so be it: Exit at RTL. IMO this bar means hold and is Black to Black. Did you consider selling at this bar close?

You ask in the picture: which way to draw the blue line? It can be drawn but imo the tapes are more important. Point 3 is where the tape down is broken to the upside. I haven't seen YM but it probably shows an FTT on a down channel.

regards,
Ivo

Hi Ivo,

Thanks for your post. I'm not sure if you understand my intent here. I think I agree with every facet of your analysis. I was long on the bar and stayed long until the RTL broke.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from bundlemaker:

Hi Ivo,

Thanks for your post. I'm not sure if you understand my intent here. I think I agree with every facet of your analysis. I was long on the bar and stayed long until the RTL broke.

MY apologies, I admit I can be a boob at times. That chart snippet has an incorrect note. It should read:

"Which Way to Draw the Green Line"

iow's, how to know how to draw the gaussian

 

[dkm]

Quote from bundlemaker:

Thanks for your input David,

SO you entered 18 seconds into the bar. Wow. PRV isn't even remotely accurate at that point (at least in many, many instances). ....

I agree that prv can be very unreliable that early in the bar but I had already drawn in my ym RTL for the new pt 3 at 12:17:08 (I have just replayed my recording for the day to check) so I was in "nail that pt 3" mindset before the 12:20 bar even opened

I don't think it was skill because I still get frequent small losers. However, I must say that it is most unusual for me to take such an early entry.

David

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from bundlemaker:

Mike,

I took great pains today to be specific, to comply with everyones wishes, and to stay on focus. Nothing here addresses the issues I've put forth. I have posted a chart, I've posted my thought process, and with the exception of bi9foot, not one has talked about the issues I've posed. You seem hell bent to show me I'm on the wrong highway, when in fact I'm on exactly the right highway.

Bundle,

Don't take this the wrong way. Several folks (especially Avi 8) have offered to help you out, however this kind of attitude is not going to get you any where.

Several people have asked you to post the daily chart and you haven't, I have wondered why you haven't done so but instead had posted several other messages afterwards. Folks like to see the chart to see what your chart looks like so that they can better understand your thinking.

For example I looked at your first chart and noticed your gaussians were wrong and said to myself why the heck is he trading against the dominant direction? You had a R2R (while I had a dec Red to inc. Black) in you chart so it kind of makes sense because you thought you had down as the dominant direction.

If you want to work with someone, I would advise you to follow their instructions and see if it helps, if not you can politely say thanks and try something else. Mike has given you his phone number (heck he hasn't given me his number) and has indicated his willingness to help. It is up to you to decide if you want to take it up (which also means listening to him) or decline it.

I realize you are frustrated, but all you have done is ignored pretty much all of advice given to you during the past two weeks.

Just as Mike has offered, I have also told you to let me know if you need help but you have not taken that offer either.

 

[Tums]

People ask you to post a chart, not because they want you to make a fool out of yourself, but as a way to establish a common point to start the chart analysis.

All of us are humble students of the market. We all learn from each other's mistakes and "aha"s.



edit: posting our charts is also a way to confirm we are on the same page.

 

[callmate]

I lost all my channels on my chart for some mysterious reason. Sigh! I found the initial down channel difficult to draw because of its steepness.

Peace

 

[Steve Tvardek]

Wish I could help you but from what you've described here and seeing your chart snippet from today, we just go about things very differently, I wouldnt know where to begin. Hopefully someone else approaches things similar to you so they can better get inside your head.

Quote from bundlemaker:

Steve,

My practice (and confirmed ok via Spyder's review of my channels video) is that I do not draw in a new channel if the old channel is broke by only a couple ticks and then price goes right back into old channel. I also use Spyder's technique of using this phenomonen (b/o and return to channel) as a new pt1.

 

[Jason Rosen]

I'm a newbie (been at this about 1 1/2 weeks) and only about 1/4 of the way through the journal but here's my chart for the day. I drew in all of the channels and FTT's real-time so if i missed the mark a bit please let me know. Any input would be greatly appreciated.