Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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At some point, we all need to face the facts that MADA bring to us. Monitor, analysis, decide, act. I think some of us are getting too attached to not trading meaning not making a decision.
Without decisions, you don't even have a remote clue as to what you've learned.
If you prefer, drop "my entry" and substitute "where I believe I had a pt3". In the end, it's gonna be the same thing.
Bob,
Your "entry" was way too late. I took the same "trade" but at 12:20:18 with an entry @ 1446. Coincidently this was the break of the high of the 12:15 bar but increasing black prv was clearly visible at that time. You were correctly anticipating the pt3. You just got in too late. FWIW, I exited at 12:38:01 for a wash at 1446 as it broke the RTL.
I assumed the intrabar shift on the FTT bar at 11:35 was the b2b. However, the subsequent decreasing black volume had me confused. When I saw the prv at 12:20 I just went for it. As it turned out, I exited too early.
David
Avi,
here is my chart. Gaussians are done after the fact. Also, note where the big blue arrow is. The first bar that broke out of the purple channel was on decreasing volume. Then immediatley, the next bar is down and on increasing volume. Then price closes where it opened. This does occurr time and again, and serves to further confuse.
here is my chart. Gaussians are done after the fact. Also, note where the big blue arrow is. The first bar that broke out of the purple channel was on decreasing volume. Then immediatley, the next bar is down and on increasing volume. Then price closes where it opened. This does occurr time and again, and serves to further confuse.
Thanks for your input David,
SO you entered 18 seconds into the bar. Wow. PRV isn't even remotely accurate at that point (at least in many, many instances). Also, as PRV (as I recall) was at extreme levels the whole bar, you would have been thinking about intra bar changes. Price is prone to often move a few ticks and then reverse back those same few ticks, particularly that early in a bar. And I just noticed you didn't even wait for the lateral to b/o. Are you sure this was skill, or was it possibly luck? I sincerely don't mean to be sarcastic, it's just that I too will once in a while nail a perfect entry and think I'm a genius, only to be followed by a dozen small losers (or, if you prefer, a dozen bad decisions).
I don't remember being 'taught' how to trade, yet.Quote from bundlemaker:
...These are the kind of trades I take. THey fit with what we've been taught almost to perfection. SOmehow I seem to stumble on these nice little losses exclusively
Remember these posts from last week (9/6/07)?
We are trying to help, but you gotta help us out too and give us something to work with here.
You 'peeked' at the YM. Why are you so concerned about the money and not granting 'our' one simple request (an ES chart)? The concern about the money is not the right mindset. But if you are still wondering if channels work then note the date of this post:
Spydertrader
Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 5579
09-18-06 05:09 PM
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Quote from Bearbelly:
How many actions for how many points if you dont mind me asking.
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14 actions (entry, exit or reversal) for 13.50 points ES (one wash trade). I began with the Opening Bar at 9:30 AM Eastern Time, and I stopped trading the ES at 2:00 PM Eastern Time. I'm not to SCT yet. I often leave the computer screens to chat on the phone, post to the ET Chatroom (or threads) or go have a smoke in order to give myself a mental rest. Since I am new to SCT, the practice drains me mentally, so I have to build up to doing it all day long. I'm still pretty much a rookie at this SCT stuff.
Sorry about the length of this post.
-Mike
Bob, where is your RTL of the down channel stemming from points 10:05 and 10:25 as pts 1 & 3 down? The upchannel starting from 11:35, has several instances of price walking outside that we fan and this keeps happening (IE we are still always in an upchannel) and then we BO that down channel at 10:25 on increasing volume.
Mike,
I took great pains today to be specific, to comply with everyones wishes, and to stay on focus. Nothing here addresses the issues I've put forth. I have posted a chart, I've posted my thought process, and with the exception of bi9foot, not one has talked about the issues I've posed. You seem hell bent to show me I'm on the wrong highway, when in fact I'm on exactly the right highway.
Again... I'm doing MADA. I'm making decisons based on a data set. The decisons are incorrect or at the least I'm not using the data in the right context. There has been a ton of recent talk about how we're not supposed to be trading, and every time I explain exactly what I'm doing. I'm NOT trading, I'm making decisions.
The concern is NOT, I repeat NOT, about the money. THe money comes automatically if correct decisions are made. Now, if you believe you can make ANY progress without evaluating your decisions, I believe you are deluding yourself.
Hi,
This bar:
- just formed a point three up
- broke out of congestion area
- has relatively high volume and is large
- takes out 8 former bars
- closes almost at its high
You are getting volume here in the direction of the trend. It does not touch LTL but the next bar could just as be the continuation of this bar and touch LTL (or not).
I would wait for the end of the next bar and then ask myself: did we have an FTT here? If price would go like crazy to RTL on the next bar or two without trying to go to LTL then so be it: Exit at RTL. IMO this bar means hold and is Black to Black. Did you consider selling at this bar close?
You ask in the picture: which way to draw the blue line? It can be drawn but imo the tapes are more important. Point 3 is where the tape down is broken to the upside. I haven't seen YM but it probably shows an FTT on a down channel.
regards,
Ivo
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