Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Avi 8:

OK, just remember you asked....

Your chart so far is incomplete. The annotations for the most part are not correct. There is a FTT that is labled wrong. Check Mr. Black's chart from earlier, it is much closer to what I have.

A few days ago, 'we' asked you to post only the ES chart. Days passed and the first post I see from you is trades. Why are you trading? 'We' asked you to go back to the first month's assignment (PV on the ES only!). Then I see another post where you 'peeked' at the YM. Without your ES annotations being correct, I seriously doubt the YM is either. So it will be NO help.

Please don't take this the wrong way, we don't want to 'leave you on the beach'. So please, once more, just ES only and post at end of day.

You have my number, feel free to use it. :D

-Mike
More...

Thank you Mike,

First, as I posted earlier, I'm NOT trading. I'm telling you where I identified pt3's. I'm consistantly wrong. THis is where a trade would have occurred.

Now, as to the other stuff, please post the bar you think my ftt is wrong on. Remember, I'm the guy who created the video that teaches how to do this stuff, and Spyder constantly refers people to it, so I suspect I may know what I'm doing. I could just plain be goofing up, but you gotta be specific so we can compare notes.

Finally, why "peek" at YM. Becuase this is the way that Spyder has suggested learning. WOrk with the basic tools, and while you're doing MADA at the forest level with ES only, look at the finer tools once in a while. THis is exactly what I did. And it served to confirm, clearly, that my then currently analysis was correct.

And, again, thank you for being willing to dive in and tango. I truly believe there are others out there who can benefit from this type of discussion.
 
Quote from bi9foot:

Hey Bundle,

You are trying to trade against the dominant trend. The dominant trend has been up since just before lunch.

I have made some comments on your first chart. You exited the first trade with the RTL (on decreasing volume). You second trade was plain wrong going against the dominant trend when you should have been looking to go long somewhere near the RTL.

Hope this helps.
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Ahhhhh, finally, this is what I was hoping you guys would catch. Every "trade" was in a non-dom direction. I realized that, but was keeping it a secret to see who would notice.

Now, the problem is, I can only tell it was Non-Dom , AFTER the whole damn guassian completes.

This, I believe, is my most major problem.
 
Continuing....

How to tell, intra-gaussian, what is dom and what is non-dom. I can tell you two things:

1) volume spikes intra-gaussian are very misleading, but you don't know they are outliers until after the gaussian is complete

2) r2r and b2b are lagging indicators of change

3) flaws only occurr in the dom direction, yet I'm either seeing them in the non-dom too (how can that be) or something else is going on.

Oopss, I guess 3 items.
 
Quote from bi9foot:

Hey Bundle,

You are trying to trade against the dominant trend. The dominant trend has been up since just before lunch.

I have made some comments on your first chart. You exited the first trade with the RTL (on decreasing volume). You second trade was plain wrong going against the dominant trend when you should have been looking to go long somewhere near the RTL.

Hope this helps.
More...
Bob, regarding the Gaussians, looking at your later chart, I also see 12:40 (chart time) as being a trough of a R2R.
edit: Bob: your last two posts came while I was writing this
 
Here is the flip side:

Look at late this afternoon. 15:20 bar was left side of up trend. 15:25 appears to be FTT. Then 15:30 and 15:35 are lateral which to mean sets up potential pt3. OK, now, the way I had been entering would have been to go short on +prv on 15:40 bar.

But wait! that 15:40 bar is just one bar. I don't know what the gaussian will end up looking like. This could end up looking like a big decreasing red, which means we're still in dominant up, so I don't take the trade.

And the market tanks.

Does this reveal what and how I'm thinking? Can any of you sort of understand what I mean when I say "contradiction". There are two distinct signals on this same resolution level: one says go short the other doesn't. And this is how I see every opportunity.
 
Bundle,

You are welcome for the tango, .... as long as I can lead :)

Please post your complete chart for end of day and the YM also if you are going to use it too. I will have time after market close to review and use Photoshop to place corrections along with text.

I too learned how to annotate from your video and am grateful.

-Mike
 
This sort of brings me back full circle to the beginning of our voyage. This is more or less the same sticking point I had back in February.

EVERY bar, while the gaussian is forming, (not intra-bar, intra-gaussian) could be interpretted as either a possilbe increasing/decreasing bar, or decreasing/increasing on a larger fractal. Several days ago I suggested that *2*'s were sort of pointless for entry purposes and that they were of use only to confirm a trend once underway. (Jack stated almost these same words on the Tucson recordings from this Jan/Feb).

While it's as clear as a bell what the gaussians are at the end of the day, they are quite ambiguous during the day, until it's too late.

Spyder suggested that I look for a new way to see the things I'm stuck on. I've tried looking at these gaussians forming through several different filters, none of which seems to have done the trick. I have looked for patterns, for linear regression, dropping spikes of some level, defocusing, zooming in to finer levels; I sort of ran out of other ways to change perspective.

FOr those of you who still might consider my recent posts whining, if you also have not made clear in your head firm decision points, I invite you to do that in order to get a feel for what might happen were you to trade. You might feel different about my posts.
 
Quote from Avi 8:

Bundle,

You are welcome for the tango, .... as long as I can lead :)

Please post your complete chart for end of day and the YM also if you are going to use it too. I will have time after market close to review and use Photoshop to place corrections along with text.

I too learned how to annotate from your video and am grateful.

-Mike
More...

I will plan on doing this tomorrow, as I've already made numerous changes to my actual, real time annotations, particulary on the gaussians. And I don't expect you to do my homework for me. WHy not just post even on the FTT you believe I have incorrectly annotated.

If you don't, I probably won't get any sleep tonight:)
 
Just to be clear, I've attached a chart snippet. Don't worry about this particular example. It's meant to help you understand my interpretation issue.

Notice the two ways to draw the gaussian. Is this really a B2B? Or is it a decreasing black? Afterall, we all know that the gaussians are to be drawn over the course of an entire traverse, and this is what we see here.
 

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