Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Thanks gents for your courtesy and integrity. It is good that all of us can get back on our journey together! ... "The joy is in the journey"... and I am glad we did not leave anyone behind... on the beach head...

Quote from nkhoi:
I am currently working on 'minority rule'.:D
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Nkhoi, I too strugle with what the intended meaning of Jack's statement above is. I think he has said that most folks interpret the DOM wrong. So since most folks think a preponderance of bid's on the DOM infer going long, I assume he means the opposite. Although I think I have seen it described both ways. :confused:

Clarification appreciated form our sage members. Lets make it simple and say if inside bids outnumber inside asks by 2x and level 2 to 4 bids outnumber level 2 to 4 asks on the DOM by 2x also, is the implied signal to go long or short?
 
Quote from bigmoose:

Thanks gents for your courtesy and integrity. It is good that all of us can get back on our journey together! ... "The joy is in the journey"... and I am glad we did not leave anyone behind... on the beach head...



Nkhoi, I too strugle with what the intended meaning of Jack's statement above is. I think he has said that most folks interpret the DOM wrong. So since most folks think a preponderance of bid's on the DOM infer going long, I assume he means the opposite. Although I think I have seen it described both ways. :confused:

Clarification appreciated form our sage members. Lets make it simple and say if inside bids outnumber inside asks by 2x and level 2 to 4 bids outnumber level 2 to 4 asks on the DOM by 2x also, is the implied signal to go long or short?
More...

First, you need to be sure in you are looking at this tool at the right time. It is not used to determine to go long or short, it is used to determine change or continuation.

From my limited experience, a "wall" has a lot bigger difference than 2X. A wall is 5 or even 10 times as big on one side as the other.

Indeed, Spyder and I did have a good telephone conversation today and I believe we got as close to agreeing on what needed agreeing on, as two human beings can. Thank you again very much Spyder. I left today's conversation thrilled to have learned more and excited to sort out what still might be causing me challenges.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

Bear,

This is just my point. I can draw the channels, and I can see the PV after the fact. I can see everything, after the fact. Beforehand, it's all just guessing. To me, in my experience, it's guessing. And so far, no one has explained, in a way I understand, a way to NOT guess.
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You've completely lost me. It sounds like you have forgotten about the change/continuation continuum. We have continuation UNTIL WE HAVE CHANGE. Thus, if you identify change "after the fact," you still have all that continuation to profit from. We are not in the business of identifying change before change even occurs.

I had one day months ago where my end score was a total mess and I had overtraded myself into something of a hole. Upon reviewing the video I realized that if I had made my entries only at the times during the video when I actually drew in my channels, and exited only when the channels I drew in the video were broken (w/ incr vol), I would have been significantly in the green. Instead, I was guessing.
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

Bundle

Your quest for certainty is doomed to fail. No one ever answers my question. Can you make money consistently at the forest level, on paper or real money? If you cannot there is no point in going further. This is the way I see it.
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I agree that this is extremely important for people to consider.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

Let me repeat just one of the questions I have brought up: what different does it make what kind of flaw it is. No one, not once, has ever made it clear why we bother differentiating one flaw from another.
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For me, differentiating between a hitch and a dip and a stall does one thing -- reduces anxiety and adds comfort. HVS and CCC are obviously different beasts, but hitch/dip/stall are like fraternal triplets AFAIC.
 
Quote from bigmoose:

Thanks gents for your courtesy and integrity. It is good that all of us can get back on our journey together! ... "The joy is in the journey"... and I am glad we did not leave anyone behind... on the beach head...



Nkhoi, I too strugle with what the intended meaning of Jack's statement above is. I think he has said that most folks interpret the DOM wrong. So since most folks think a preponderance of bid's on the DOM infer going long, I assume he means the opposite. Although I think I have seen it described both ways. :confused:

Clarification appreciated form our sage members. Lets make it simple and say if inside bids outnumber inside asks by 2x and level 2 to 4 bids outnumber level 2 to 4 asks on the DOM by 2x also, is the implied signal to go long or short?
More...

Amen, brothers ...

Now, I anxiously await a thorough fleshing out of bigmoose's question - it has buffaloed me for weeks :D

TIA to whomever has the goods ...
 
I guess I better be careful that I don't go down a rabbit trail ... The ?'s come from an old thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=23103&perpage=6&pagenumber=9
This ? may not be relevant to the current presentation of the methodology, if so please just ignore it.

Grob109: "The minority size on the bbid and bask rules. ... If the bbid is smallest then the seller controls and I am in short. ... I was referring to the minority in this context. Many in ET think the market goes with the majority. If fact the minority control. "

These were the statements I was trying to get a handle on. Thankfully I have seen the bounce off the "wall", it is great, just like Spyder says, a big white elephant tromping thru the DOM... I am trying to understand the "sentiment" that is implied by the minority/majority on the DOM as stated above.
 
Quote from Tums:

Jack mention in another thread that he can trade off the volume bars. i.e. with the price bars covered. This shows you how important is the volume information.
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Amen. Even looking at today, one could have forest-traded the morning without ever looking at price.
 

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Quote from dkm:

Well that advice would cut out a hell of a lot of people, myself included. The ability to distinguish between ftts and flaws, particularly at the forest level, appears crucial to avoiding the numerous small losses that erode any profitability.
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Flaws and FTTs have absolutely nothing to do with entering on a PT3 and exiting at a X2X+RTLbreak.
 
Spy – Thanks for expounding on the flaws/internals. Most of what you said was a nice articulation of some of the conclusions I’ve arleady come to, which is reaffirming.
 
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