Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[PointOne]

Quote from ivob:

Same with BO. Although BO should occur on increasing volume I prefer low volume right before or at the border. After all there's no border anymore.

...

Anyway, we learn while doing. I just wish there was more discussion about FTT's here. Identifying FTT's timely is essential for this method Spyder wrote so I don't understand we discuss FTT's more in depth.

regards,
Ivo

Excellent post, as was dkm's question.

One thing I don't understand in your post: TL BO - if you don't have increasing volume that invalidates your channel and you have to watch out for a new point 3.

To add to the FTT mix:

if you have several (2 or 3) levels of channels of increasing steepness in the dominant direction, expect an FTT for each level in turn as the new channel forms in the other direction. The market can take time to turn fully and there is often energy left in the move after the first (steepest) FTT.

Retraces off volatility expansions can become reversals without any strong FTT showing, but you probably see a flaw before the TL BO.

 

[dkm]

My understanding is that the finer tools will enable the earlier identification of ftts and flaws but do they improve the identification process? I guess if one sees a wall appear on the dom shortly after entering on an ftt, then it reduces the likelihood of the ftt proceeding through to rtl bo. Likewise, a wall appearing “behind” the trade should reduce the likelihood of the ftt becoming a flaw. What I wish to avoid, for now, is the temptation to drop to finer and finer resolution just because we have finer tools. If one is to avoid frequent small losses due to inappropriate reversals then it is essential to recognize what is and is not an ftt, on a consistent basis. We are reminded repeatedly to monitor for continuation or change but it is equally important to know what constitutes continuation / change at any given resolution. I feel it would be beneficial if this could be summarised.

 

[Jander]

Quote from dkm:

We are reminded repeatedly to monitor for continuation or change but it is equally important to know what constitutes continuation / change at any given resolution. I feel it would be beneficial if this could be summarised.

I posted a similar question and my thoughts a few weeks ago and had no response...

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from dkm:

But what about decreasing black volume or volume entering dry up? This suggests lateral price movement so presumably no ftt? (A case of "what wasn't that") The problem arises frequently when making an early entry on what could be an ftt, only to observe price and vol colour flip black/red several times before things become clearer. Reversing in this situation can (and does) lead to multiple small losses.

David, after an FTT in an up channel, I look at anything other than increasing black as validation of a FTT.

One gets decreasing black in 1) a down channel or 2) a lateral in an up channel.

So when I see decreasing black, I am thinking we are in a retrace of a down channel (formed after the FTT). If it is instead a lateral then I probably have more time to get back to the dominant direction. This keeps me from getting whipsawed at the beginning until things begin to clear up.

 

[TIKITRADER]

Just to clarify,
I do not want anyone to misunderstand,

There is a time , when it is appropriate, to incorporate the use of finer resolution tools.
They are not to be used at all times, but to be used during the sweeping process.

I am hoping to bring forward, more discussion of the sweeping process, and what is noticed at these times.

The use of tick , DOM, , and T&S in depth, with our analysis would be a great addition to the discussions taking place, to strengthen the skills required for this method.

 

[ivob]

Hi,

I jut noticed that often the increasing volume starts after price has broken out a few ticks... maybe wrong observation.. BTW I also like to watch tic chart while price resides at RTL as well as YM.

Sometimes you notice like three little YM bars in a row on decreasing volume in direction of the channel. We know what's gonna happen then: often big breakout. It's different from a FBO and more like a little retracement before the breakout and sometimes BO already has occured. Great opportunity to enter imo.

Your first comment: yeah I noticed that. Especially in steep channels. I think they called it the market "rolling over". I think that it's a great time to start looking for FTT's after the market has formed such a less steeper channel because it really needs some power in order to continue in the same direction for much longer (sometimes it does though). I usually lose a couple of ticks after the BO because I'm on the wrong side of the market but when reversing quickly you can compensate quickly. If you entered on time (FTT) you should not lose money.

Of course the continuation itself (the less steeper channel or new pt3) is an FTT as well on some fractal. Sometimes can only be seen on YM.

>Retraces off volatility expansions can become reversals without any strong FTT showing

Yeah I think I saw some of this yesterday and it fooled me... However, often YM does show a FTT.

regards,
Ivo

Quote from PointOne:

Excellent post, as was dkm's question.

One thing I don't understand in your post: TL BO - if you don't have increasing volume that invalidates your channel and you have to watch out for a new point 3.

To add to the FTT mix:

if you have several (2 or 3) levels of channels of increasing steepness in the dominant direction, expect an FTT for each level in turn as the new channel forms in the other direction. The market can take time to turn fully and there is often energy left in the move after the first (steepest) FTT.

Retraces off volatility expansions can become reversals without any strong FTT showing, but you probably see a flaw before the TL BO.

 

[bundlemaker]

Just a genaral comment not directed toward any particular post.

It sounds like some may be forgetting how this whole thing is supposed to turn out. You can NOT know that it's an FTT until after the fact. That doesn't matter. You use fine tools to enter at the earliest possible time in order to CAPTURE MORE POTENTIAL PROFIT.

Remember early in the thread when Spyde said "first by accident, then on purposes"? Think about what that means in light of the recent discussion. Think about my post a few days ago and Spyder's comments. This is NOT about getting it right 100% (or 90% or whatever) of the time. It's about timely reaction to timely data collection.

Now, the problem of red/blk/red/blk/red/blk upon entry is not a problem with the system, it's a problem with lack of skill and understanding. So, we can fix that by several possible rules. One that Spyder gave me early on what that once you call an FTT you don't reverse again until you get a pt3 formed. SUre, this is not fool proof, but in the learning process it helped me a lot. Another thing Spyder mentioned is that once you enter, don't reverse until the high/low of the FTT bar was taken out. Once you see how the fine tools tell a story, much of this fogginess will go away.

All the questions brought up in these recent posts are no different than those in January and February. The answers are no different than they were then. I found a thorough review helping me to stay on track, on focus, and not let fear and doubt get in the way too much.

 

[cnms2]

People, especially smart people, have a tendency of trying to improve things even before they fully grasp them, and this is counterproductive. Please don't get me wrong... Until we fully comprehend Jack's method, most improvement tentatives will have the effect of moving us away from the learning path, and furthering in time our final Aha!

Quote from jack hershey:

An FTT on level 3 is and FTT on level 2 and the FTT on level 2 is an FTT on level 1. what follows an FTT on level 1 is a BO of the level 1 RTL...

This is a very important statement for beginners.

 

[cnms2]

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1583927>

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from bundlemaker:

..
All the questions brought up in these recent posts are no different than those in January and February. The answers are no different than they were then..

second that.