Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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No worries Haroki, we are all students here. The mistakes I made were embarrassing to say the least, but I learned and never forget again.

As to your proposed interpretation, I won't go into it now. I would like to see the person who post the question also post the chart. If his tapes and channels are not in the right places, we are not on the same page, and it is difficult to make a sensible discussion.
 
sorry for my confusion, but i have a question about the highlighted area of the attached chart.

i see the B2B but am having a little difficulty seeing why it is there (what down channel it is breaking). is it for the tape heliotrope tape?

and immediately afterwards, the R2R... that is for the breakout of the Yellow horizontal, correct?

and why is the orange down channel's point 2 off of the 10:35 bar and not the 10:05 bar (dot dashed line in the attached chart).

i apologize if i overlooked important posts or am not studying diligently enough.

thank you.
 

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Quote from PeakTrader33:

I was curious to know exactly how to catch something like the end of the day sell off that we saw before the close. I had prices traversing nicely in an upward channel (pt. 1 @ 13:55 bar, pt. 2 @14:35 bar and pt. 3 @ 15:15 bar). The 15:50 bar is what I was unprepared for. What confirms the FTT in real time for this situation? Any help would be appreciated.
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The 15:49 YM bar BO down the ascending channel RTL on increasing volume. The 15:50 ES did the same.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1583311>
 

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Quote from TIKITRADER:

There is a real value, in the use of these finer resolution tools.
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I mentioned on the "Software used for JHM" thread that I'm testing out some simple binary filters on the tick range charts using pressure bars.

With the usual caveats that one should not get stuck on the finer resolution for longer than necessary, at times of change the tick charts tell a story with repeating patterns and sequences. My simple binary filters are looking promising - so far I am mainly forward testing them as I do not have a large archive of tick data.

The key for me was to marry supply with demand: DOM and T&S. The latter can be plotted as a ratio using pressure bars in QT. Then you look for the price formations of interest (keep it general and simple) and seek the ticks within these formations that go against the prevailing pressure. If this is coincident with an imbalance on the DOM you have Change, which will be confirmed in the next couple of ticks. Basically I'm attempting to isolate where the minority takes control, all done with simple paintbars, LOL.
 
Quote from PeakTrader33:

I was curious to know exactly how to catch something like the end of the day sell off that we saw before the close. I had prices traversing nicely in an upward channel
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How do the volume gaussians support an upward channel at that time? There was an R2R shift during the 14:55 bar.
 
Quote from PointOne:



The key for me was to marry supply with demand: DOM and T&S. The latter can be plotted as a ratio using pressure bars in QT. Then you look for the price formations of interest (keep it general and simple) and seek the ticks within these formations that go against the prevailing pressure. If this is coincident with an imbalance on the DOM you have Change, which will be confirmed in the next couple of ticks. Basically I'm attempting to isolate where the minority takes control, all done with simple paintbars, LOL.
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The shift in supply and demand can be seen at the tick level at points of interest in price.

At the point of interest, look at the tick.
There will be formations on tick , the 2 pair, that will shift within price tiers on the DOM at the bid and ask.

Look at the supply and demand on the DOM, and keep an eye on the support and resistance levels on the DOM.
This is where you may find the wall sitting, and notice the price bars next to the bar forming, or close by.

This is where you will notice the previous bar, or a bar close by, with a high or a low that is creating support or resistance, and that is showing on the DOM as a wall.

Price may be moving away from the wall, taking the path of least resistance, or sitting at the wall, for it to disappear.

It is at this point, look at the tick, and the T&S.
A 2 pair may form , or a pattern on tick , that you recognize.
Watch the T&S for the supply- demand, shift at the tick level.

Then look back to the DOM to see if a wall has disappeared.

You will notice the minority starting to take control, at this tick level.
A shift in supply and demand can be seen here.
It is VERY important to get right back the the BIG PICTURE , and see the channels and gaussians.
I have recently posted some charts , showing the supply demand shift at tick. Esignal shows the bid ask at tick, but you can look to T&S as PointOne has mentioned to see the shift.

It will take plenty of practice to see the shift.

Spending a large amount of screen time now myself, to see the finer resolution tools come into play at points I feel needed.

They are very useful, but,
the ability to recognize what is taking place without them is the most important objective.
 
Quote from ivob:

The FTT is very interesting and there are different things to consider. Price should try to touch LTL (else it's not an FTT) and fail. If this happens then it's an FTT.

However, in my opinion some more factors play a role: volume of the FTT bar compared to volume when price was around same level earlier.., volume of previous bars, etc. Did the FTT take place on high volume or on low volume, etc.

regards,
Ivo
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This raises some interesting questions regarding how soon one can recognise the misidentification of an ftt, i.e what turns out to be a flaw. Assuming the context of a long pt 3 channel and a short entry on the basis of concluding that an ftt has occurred, what are the criteria that would invalidate the conclusion? Clearly, if price formed a new high or increasing black volume appears, then the conclusion is invalidated. But what about decreasing black volume or volume entering dry up? This suggests lateral price movement so presumably no ftt? (A case of "what wasn't that") The problem arises frequently when making an early entry on what could be an ftt, only to observe price and vol colour flip black/red several times before things become clearer. Reversing in this situation can (and does) lead to multiple small losses.
 
Quote from dkm:

This raises some interesting questions regarding how soon one can recognize the misidentification of an ftt, i.e what turns out to be a flaw. .
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Introducing the finer resolution tools into the analysis of what is happening, might help us to sharpen the skills required at these points of interest.

Looking forward to the discussion of points of interest, to include the complete context of what is happening at that moment,
the tools we now have, to help in the identification ftt's ,flaws, and trendlines.

dkm, always enjoy your posts with your thought process, very informative.

The shift of supply and demand is something to recognize at these points.
 
David,

You take the trade unless you can see it's a flaw while the FTT is being formed. You may need a couple of (2 min) bars however before you find out. You may also decide to skip the FTT because there has not been a flaw or VE yet. Of course we watch how price moves to RTL after an FTT. Is it decreasing non dom volume or just sideways? Are we getting a flaw?

New high and closing lower than previous bar would be a good indication of FTT that could continue. Same with new high and closing lower than previous high in same day. Even much better if this happens on lower volume... Checkout how price behaves at the edges of the channels (new high/low, borders).

If volume is high, then next bars need to be watched even closer... This has fooled me often and still does. If close would be near the high of previous bar then watch out. Might just be a stall. More and more I tent to skip these depending on how YM looks and bar is being formed.

Remember, low volume = low market participation = buyers and sellers disagree and do not want to trade. Price has to move to new regions (BO) so people participate again. High volume = everyone is happy and everone agrees (except on future direction) and price continues to operate inside the channel. This is why I love FTT's on lower volume. They are reliable and subtle (difficult to detect) which is counter intuitive and that's what the markets are like. Usually changes occur subtle (imo). This makes sense. As soon as everyone knows whats going on it's over or the trade may seem too difficult to take.

Same with BO. Although BO should occur on increasing volume I prefer low volume right before or at the border. After all there's no border anymore.

Decreasing black after FTT in uptrend --> depends on PRV and finer tools. If it stays very low it may be a flaw and the dominant direction would already have changed. Inside bar I would definately hold. DU right after FTT --> I would just hold in new direction as this is not an indication of new change after the change. Probably just inside bar and price finding its new direction.

VDU after BO is more important. Yesterday end of day was interesting. YM broke out of downchannel, we had VDU bar that was taken out to the downside by a completely outside bar on much higher volume. We all know what happened. VDU after BO means price action very soon.

Note: this is all just from observing and I am not complete. Currently I am collecting different FTT's and trying to catagorise them. Anyone feel free to correct from your own experience as I make mistakes for sure.

Anyway, we learn while doing. I just wish there was more discussion about FTT's here. Identifying FTT's timely is essential for this method Spyder wrote so I don't understand we discuss FTT's more in depth.

regards,
Ivo





Quote from dkm:

This raises some interesting questions regarding how soon one can recognise the misidentification of an ftt, i.e what turns out to be a flaw. Assuming the context of a long pt 3 channel and a short entry on the basis of concluding that an ftt has occurred, what are the criteria that would invalidate the conclusion? Clearly, if price formed a new high or increasing black volume appears, then the conclusion is invalidated. But what about decreasing black volume or volume entering dry up? This suggests lateral price movement so presumably no ftt? (A case of "what wasn't that") The problem arises frequently when making an early entry on what could be an ftt, only to observe price and vol colour flip black/red several times before things become clearer. Reversing in this situation can (and does) lead to multiple small losses.
More...
 
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