Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Talas:

I've been lurking and studying for a few months... and thought I'd solicit feedback on my annotations to see if I'm getting the fundamentals correct.

Any feedback is sincerely appreciated.

Thanks,
- Talas

(P.S. I realize the level of detail in my annotations varies. It's due to working full time and alternating between work and playing market catch up.)
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Talas:

Good work !

note: BO/FBO only happens on RTL.
At your "FBO?", we anticipate the market to return to RTL.
If the market had kept going up, it would be called a Volatility Expansion. You would have noticed the volume (gaussian) to expand with it.

Welcome to the journey!
 
What an unbelievable day. On the whole I think there has been some real improvement in my understanding and execution of the JHM - YEEHAW!! :D :D

Unfortunately there is another hand involved here :( ...

#1 caused me problems basically b/c of the huge volume bar on the 11:35 bar. It caused me to think we had a shift in sentiment when in fact we did not.

#2 similarly caught me off guard in thinking we had a significant shift in sentiment in effect when we did not.

#3 actually the confusion started with the 13:20 bar which I incorrectly (verified with Spyder's chart) labeled an FTT. Not having dec. red to the RTL was confusing enough without having inc. price with dec. black volume (on 13:25 and :30 bars (and for most of the :40 bar as well).

#4 Just seemed like all get out to be an FTT, but it wasn't. This one cost me :(.

Honorable mention is the periods 14:30 to 14:45 -- very confusing and rough going.
 
Here is my attempt at Spyder's assignment on determining continuation/change at the end of each bar.

Comments welcome, I am interested in finding out what others have to say about my analysis.

Thanks
 

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Quote from Spydertrader:

A trader can control the speed at which they move through the M-A-D-A algorithm. My assertion simply attempts to place emphasis on that which a trade can control, and therefore, on which a trader needs to focus. 'See', Think, Decide and Act Quickly, and the volatility works in your favor. repeat the process at a significantly slower pace, and in times of high volatility, a Break even wash, might turn into a small loss wash (or even a big loss wash). As such, volatility isn't the problem. The Time needed to move through each step is the problem


- Spydertrader
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I have been meaning to dig deeper regarding the MADA routine that I feel I am lacking in comprehension a bit. Can one of the pros critique my thoughts on the process and clear up some things? I dont remember seeing this discussion as part of this journal, atleast not in detail, but I have read a little about it in various parts of ET and the web.

I think the Swordsman had it right when talking about the volatility leading to quick spurts in the unanticipated direction to the tune of a few points in a matter of seconds. However, I trust Spyder in that minimizing the time it takes to move through these steps can make this recent volatility a good deal more managable. I guess my purpose is to a] make sure I am asking the right questions throughout the process b] make sure they are in the right order, and c] get input from others as to what thought processes are going on while doing the routine. I realize that different fractal traders are going to have more/less action points, but I believe everyone can sort out which ones apply to their level of depth.


<b>Monitor</b> - I think volume is the key here. Are we increasing/decreasing from the last bar? the last few bars? Are the gaussians matching the channels? Are win a dom/non-dom traverse? Have we had a flaw/ve yet? -- Obviously this is not an exhaustive list but I take it the idea here is to gather data and use it in the next step

<b>Analyze</b> - So we have determined if volume is increasing/decreasing, does that go for the tape/pt3 chann/carryover chan? Is the data pertinent to the fractal we are on? What type of action do we anticipate given this data? Are we at a point that finer resolution tools come into play? If so, are they giving signals? Is the YM in agreement? Where do we sit and where are we headed in the current tape/pt3 chan/intermediate chan? How about the PRV of the upcoming bar?

<b>Decide</b> - Given the above data, the best decision is to _____ . Hopefully HOLD is written in a majority of the time. Exit or stay sidelined if a decision is not clear here and repeat the process until it becomes clear. If all is well, continue to the next step

<b>Act</b> - ENTER, HOLD, REVERSE. Get back to the M step asap. Rinse and Repeat™ .
 
Quote from 8833broc:

My 1100 thoughts and chart attached.
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Thank you 8833broc for sharing your thoughts, chart, and your notes for that time period. Reading your bar by bar log of what you were seeing in real-time really helps. I see on your chart, and on Spydertrader’s chart, there were a couple of flaws that had me confused. Your electronic log is great—I may have to borrow that format!

-river
 
Hopefully this wont stray too far from the subject matter, but I have been noticing "reversal" bars have been showing up alot lately and 99% of the time if they occur near the LTL, they are great indicators of change ( please spare me a "no shit, sherlock" for a minute ).

Im not talking about the bar that goes up but closes a tick or two below the open. The bars I am talking about ( 9:45 11:10 13:00 15:10 ) run a good ways in the dom direction, then retrace and close atleast a few ticks on the other side of the open. Not trying to add a rule or anything, just wondering if anyone else noticed them...perhaps this is so damn obvious I just wasted a post :D
 
Quote from bi9foot:
A Wash trade is when you exit or reverse after taking a position for a gain/loss of 1-2 ticks or no gain/loss because price did not move as you had anticipated.
As for an example, you enter on what you think is a pt 3 however, it turns out that the non-dominant traverse is not done yet and you don't have a point 3. So you exit ASAP.
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Thank you for your promt reply.
and, swordsman, thank you very much to pointed out what I was about to ask.

Quote from bundlemaker:
Using none of the fine tools I'd say your right. But, after some late night epiphanies regarding the OTR chart in conjunction with the DOM, the only thing that could create larger losses is being slow with taking action. This assumes good enough liqidity that the market doesn't gap intraday.
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Hope I can catch this up soon.

Quote from Spydertrader:
You appear to have defined 'wash trade' as a scenario where price has moved against you by .25 or .50 which then results in a determination of error by the trader. This is not how one determines error. Anyone who views wash trades in this fashion has completely missed the point of the entire Journal.
Wash trades are a consequence of error determination. Market volatility, point of entry, "what someone 'thinks' might happen next" have nothing to do with a 'wash trade.'
When a trader 'sees' they have made an error (either monitoring, analyzing, determining continuation or change, or in taking timely action) a wash trade is the result. Using Price alone ("Oh shit! Price is moving against me!) to determine whether or not to execute a wash trade is using a single data element and not a sufficient data set for making a determination between continuation, and change.
I hope my post provides the clarity many appear to require with respect to this topic. If not, please let me know.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
No. Price could Not have continued up - as it did not do so. Injecting probability into the discussion isn't the way you want to go with understanding that which currently provides you a challenge. Price went in the direction it could only go. Price did not go in the 'most likely' direction.
The sooner everyone begins to understand that Price heads in a direction because that direction is the only direction possible, I believe the light bulbs will start to turn on. Probability is a different game entirely. We aren't discussing probability. We want to focus on 'what must come next. If a trader doesn't have the ability to 'see' these things yet it certainly does not mean they are not there.
It all boils down to reaction vs anticipation. we should all be anticipating the events as they unfold and not reacting to them.
- Spydertrader
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A light bulb waiting to be lit up.

Quote from Spydertrader:
Also, everyone should read Mak's post again (several times in fact). He points out what one can learn from a Price Bar (and not just Open, High, Low and Close).
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what post? Thank you.

amazing forum, thank you all.
worst thing could happen is I'm a better trader, and the best thing ... :)
 
Parsed answers:

Quote from bundlemaker:

... Among the noted challenges were trying to sort out various resolution levels.

Don't; just go from bar to bar asking the question 'continuation or change?' relative to the previous bar only.

... when assessing what a gaussian is telling you, one must look the histogram over the entire traverse...

Again, use a chart with only price and volume bars and ask the question relative to the previous bar. Don't worry about the traverse, how long it will be or how wide.

... How can I distingquish change from continuation from one bar to the next, AND gauge the gaussian over the whole traverse...

It seems you are making this much more difficult than needed and is the source of your frustration, don't worry about the whole traverse right now.
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I think you are being WAY too hard on yourself. Take a look at bi9foot's bar by bar analysis, I went through about the first 2 hours and agree with his analysis. I think this is what Spydertrader had in mind with the exercise he mentioned.

-Mike
 
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