Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Spyder,
I have a question regarding the ftt at 14:30. The preceeding bar had just given us volatility expansion and a heads up for an ftt. The 14:30 bar opens at 08.50, climbs one tick and then starts to head south. Between 14:30:14 and 14:33:33 we see numerous colour flips black/red as price oscillates between 08.00 and 09.25, before price establishes its short direction.

Having concluded "FTT" as early as 14:30:14, I am monitoring for continuation / change on both es and ym. My question is this: If I am trading at the tree level, am I correct in thinking that I would need to see increasing black volume on the ym before I should consider the ftt invalidated and a reverse to be appropriate? (assuming no use of str/squ, dom and tic)

Thanks.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

Here is what I saw. I am recording my entire screen setup and just reviewed this portion of the day. In real time I think I caught basically what I am about to tell you. In review, it seems quite clear.

About 10:47 stretch/squeeze started going below neutral and it got as low as -7. The s/s signal for change seemed to continue all the way through the close of the bar. I was not able to see any DOM wall get in the way of the drop. At the bar (10:45) close the YM showed a flaw bar in the non-dom direction suggetsting change also. Hope this helps.
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Very nice commentary. As well as the Squ and YM, there was also a Wall at 1502. The BAsk touched 1502 at 10:47 and the imbalance at the inner pair was 1245 BAsk vs. 4 BBid contracts at one point. See screenshot attached.

I have a hard time describing the 10:50 bar as an FTT (as in Spyder's chart). If anything the next bar, 10:55, was a more likely candidate, although with so many intrabar shifts it is difficult to keep track of the dominant.

When we see intrabar shifts at the LTL+ the forest level trader has a problem. Volatility expansions cannot also be FTT's by definition. Point 1 was the extreme of the volatility expansion. Change occurred there. In other words we can have change without first seeing an FTT at the forest level. He should have been back on the right side by the close of the 10:55 bar though.
 

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Quote from dkm:

Am I correct in thinking that I would need to see increasing black volume on the ym before I should consider the ftt invalidated and a reverse to be appropriate? (assuming no use of str/squ, dom and tic)
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The YM 14:30 bar confirmed the change in trend. As such, had you seen increasing black Volume on the YM, such a scenario would have indicated a resumption of the previous trend.

- Spydertrader
 
I am in the midst of a major review, and in order to follow directions (which I'm prone to unconsiciously NOT do) I wanted to see only Spyder's posts. The following pdf are mildly edited (some non-trading stuff removed) and contain only Spyder's posts and replies. Hopefully this can help others save time and stay on track.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

As such, had you seen increasing black Volume on the YM, such a scenario would have indicated a resumption of the previous trend.

- Spydertrader
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Taking this discussion a little further, the situation is that I am monitoring for decreasing red volume to validate my FTT conclusion at the end of a long channel. I understand that the appearance of increasing black volume would invalidate the FTT and justify a reversal to long. However:
1. What is the correct conclusion / action if I see decreasing black volume? Hold short?
2. Is the FTT invalidated because I no longer have decreasing red volume?
3. Is the appearance of decreasing black vol sufficient information to justify a reversal back to long?
4. Is the appropriate action to reverse to long and monitor for increasing black volume?

This is a situation that arises repeatedly every day. In fact, at most FTTs. If I reverse when only seeing increasing black volume , then the net result is frequently a loss. Is this unavoidable without the use of finer tools? I would just like to be very clear as to what is considered to be continuation and what is considered to be change, at this level of resolution.

Thanks
 
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