Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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7+ months in and most people arent at least trading the very basic forest level yet? Come on guys, lets get that real world experience, find those point 3's and get in the game 
In all seriousness, at this stage, we have all learned enough to trade at least a couple times a day based on what we know. We have all seen many days now. Personally, I have been live trading for a couple months now and the experience gained has been priceless, not to mention I am making money (albeit not tons) and feeling confident. Obviously if you dont know the forest level yet, you should definitely not trade at all but those that do and are still just watching, need to step up! You can always monitor and do business as usual the rest of the day. In the end, if we only sharpen our monitoring skills and completely disregard the placing trades skills, we are going to be 50% deficient.
Ok guys, give it to me, my post was meant to motivate but I feel a few angry souls about to lash out
Edit: Also keep in mind SIM platforms tend to be slower than the actual market because of the bandwidth needed. I found out the hard way after watching the SIM for awhile, the real market is much quicker. (Cant speak for every SIM but have seen two and both were slower than what was really happenening)
In all seriousness, at this stage, we have all learned enough to trade at least a couple times a day based on what we know. We have all seen many days now. Personally, I have been live trading for a couple months now and the experience gained has been priceless, not to mention I am making money (albeit not tons) and feeling confident. Obviously if you dont know the forest level yet, you should definitely not trade at all but those that do and are still just watching, need to step up! You can always monitor and do business as usual the rest of the day. In the end, if we only sharpen our monitoring skills and completely disregard the placing trades skills, we are going to be 50% deficient.
Ok guys, give it to me, my post was meant to motivate but I feel a few angry souls about to lash out
Edit: Also keep in mind SIM platforms tend to be slower than the actual market because of the bandwidth needed. I found out the hard way after watching the SIM for awhile, the real market is much quicker. (Cant speak for every SIM but have seen two and both were slower than what was really happenening)
Yes.
The absolute levels matter less than the changes themselves which take place on the DOM. Rather than give you a hard and fast 'rule' which may or may not suit your needs, look to see what happens when you combine DOM and Tic charts at 'points of change.'
Context always plays a role in whatever signal for change we hope to 'see' on our tools. However, volume pace plays an even greater role as to whether or not the situation you describe appears. As we move into higher levels of Extreme Volume, multiple signals materialize within each ES 5 minute bar. These Intra-bar signals occur, from time to time, within wider range Price bars. Since we have now entered the Intra-bar world, the answer to the question, "What must come next must be an Intra-bar answer - and not a full bar or multiple bar answer.
Keep in mind that these tools are not designed to locate FTT's. They are designed to locate 'signals of change.' FTT's do represent a 'signal of change,' but FTT's are not the only signal of change (a topic for another month). For now, focus on differentiating the differences between continuation and change using this specific tool. Later, you'll have the ability to differentiate all signals of change from one another by arriving at a different answer to the question, "What must come next?"
I hope the above provides some clarity.
- Spydertrader
Just over a year ago, I received an invite to attend a meeting out in Tucson. The participants of the meeting, for the most part, were individuals who wished to work together in an effort to nail down cold the 'Futures Methods' and to help build a web site. Prior to that meeting, I had never even looked at a Futures Chart. I had attended some of the Paltalk Futures Discussions back 3 or 4 years prior, but it all sounded so confusing back then (2003). As a result, I chose to stick with Equities. When I arrived at the meeting last June and looked at my first chart of the ES, I watched in amazement as I could 'see' the same patterns and sequences (I had followed for 3 years trading equities) repeat, over and over again, in futures. The difference was - what took a month in Equities to develop occurred in the span of 30 minutes on the ES.
So, I began to call the market during the meeting. "Better get short guys, that is Peak Volume right there. The market is going down," I'd say. Or, "That's a 'Bruno R' set up, so you all need to be long." Time after time, my ability to catch the turns seemed almost uncanny. To prove to myself that this wasn't just some fluke, I continued throughout the day to repeat the process, and then, I did the same thing the next day. By the end of the meeting I realized I needed to learn how this stuff all was supposed to work. In other words, I could 'see' the signals, but I had no idea why or how I could 'see' them. Because I had never read any of the Futures stuff, I then had to ask questions of all the others in attendance, "I'm I supposed to look at this indicator, or that? Why do I care about Volume again? Sweeps Chart? Huh? WTF is a damn flaw?!?!?!" I also had to learn the new vocabulary (Gaussian?? WTF is a Gaussian?). The same road you all travel now, I travelled last summer.
My problem was this. I could do it from the start, but had no idea why or how. The reason I could do it was that I had spent three years 'seeing' the same signals on Equities without recognizing it. In other words, I knew when to exit on Equities ("Well that Stock looks like its moved far enough. Time to sell."), but had no idea why I knew (it was because of an FTT it turns out).
As a result, I spent June until November (2006) trading and learning to follow the steps to knowledge. I started learning to draw channels (and oh you should see some of my crappy channels from back then), and followed Jack's Indicator Sequences" logic, but something seemed to be missing. I used all the tools, but still, something wasn't there. I could trade (and trade pretty well - even in tight range days of late summer), but I still didn't know why. Sometime in November of last year, the light bulb flashed, the lightening bolt hit, the fog had cleared - however one wishes to describe it. I simply closed my eyes, mentally went back in time to the days 40 - 50 years ago when Jack traded this stuff full time, and peered over his shoulder to 'see' what things occupied his desk.
As I mentally looked over Jack's shoulder back in the day, I could 'see' the contents of his desk. Phone, Pencils, a whole lot of Butcher Paper to draw the charts, Ruler to draw the lines. Now, what was on the charts? Hmmmmmm. MACD? Nope. Stochastics? Nope. T & S? Tic chart? DOM? Nope. Nope. Nope.
That left Price, Volume and maybe Str /Squ. O.K. So If Price and volume is there, that means Channels and Gaussians need to be there too, but what could Jack be looking for? What 'signal' did he hope to find? AHHA!!! The FTT!
After snapping back into reality and the present day, I immediately reviewed all my trades (posted to the Final Page of Journal One) to see where the FTT's fell. Sure enough, if I missed an FTT on an equities Trade, Price always went against me and I lost money, but if I caught the FTT, I did quite well in the trade. Once sure I had found what made the whole process work (differentiating between continuation and change), I made this post which described my 'overall' understanding of the methods. Since then, I have from time to time, stumbled across several AHA! Moments derived mostly from occasions when one part of my brain allows the other part of my brain in on what it already knows. In addition, I have shared everything I know (among these many pages) with respect to how I view the markets and 'see' the methodology unfold in real time.
To sum up this rather long story, many similarities exist between the road I travelled one year ago, and where you all find yourselves now. Differences exist as well. I stumbled through the same questions (only with answers scattered across ET and USENET) and relied on the generosity of others (Aurum, excav8Tr, Ireland, Jack, Koamana, Liz, Mak, Mikeytrader, Nwbprop, SVRZ, Txuk and a host of other usernames) to answer my questions at the time. The difference is I had three years of experience using the same methods in a different market. As a result, I understood things much faster, and I could 'see' things much clearer.
Believe me when I say, everything I have posted in this Journal has, at one time or another (at one location or another), been posted by someone else in the past (going back all the way to 1998). I simply filled the role of 'Rosetta Stone' and helped with the translation. Hopefully, many have found such a role useful to their endeavors.
Good trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
Thanks to Excav8Tr ..
- Sydertrader
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