Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Pepe]

Hi Dkm,

You're probably expecting Spyder to answer your question, and I hope he can answer it, because I'm not completely sure of what I'm tell you. I do not understand nor I have studied yet "tic charts" or "2-pair formations".

But, as I read your post and looked to your chart, my first thought was to agree that at that time there was a sufficient dataset to consider 'change'.

I open my chart platform and went to see what happened next, and I saw ES went to RTL and bounced down (intrabar). Also YM bounced at RTL (13:18).

So, what if that was indeed a 'change' moment that lasted only until price touched RTL for another 'change' signal ?

Regards,

 

[dkm]

Quote from PointOne:

can you show the same screen snapshot for the ftt just before 11am? i think there may be clues in the contrast - at the coarser levels principally.

this is great stuff.

This is the point where it begins to pull away from 1449.00 and forms the ftt. Unfortunately I didn't widen the tic display until later in the day. I have recorded the entire day so we can take a snapshot from anywhere. I might even be able to make a video clip of the turn.

David

 

[dkm]

Quote from Pepe:

I open my chart platform and went to see what happened next, and I saw ES went to RTL and bounced down (intrabar). Also YM bounced at RTL (13:18).

So, what if that was indeed a 'change' moment that lasted only until price touched RTL for another 'change' signal ?

Regards,

Thanks Pepe. We see on the attached ym clip that it widened the short channel on decr vol at 13:18 and then formed a dip with incr vol at 13:20, 13:22. If one had taken the reversal, I guess the dip would have been enough to justify reversing back to short. However, this is clearly way down the rabbit hole and I don't want to go there yet. What I would like to see is clearer and more timely identification of reversals at the tree level.

David

 

[Pepe]

Quote from dkm:

Thanks Pepe. We see on the attached ym clip that it widened the short channel on decr vol at 13:18 and then formed a dip with incr vol at 13:20, 13:22. If one had taken the reversal, I guess the dip would have been enough to justify reversing back to short. However, this is clearly way down the rabbit hole and I don't want to go there yet. What I would like to see is clearer and more timely identification of reversals at the tree level.

David

Hi dkm,

In my opinion I think that's not quite true. I'm assuming that you are trading at 'Tree Level' because you are trying to trade between FTT of channels.

You have already a channel (grey channel) formed and you anticipated (by the dataset you mentioned) an FTT, so you took the long trade there. Now, what do you do when price reaches RTL ? The expected sequence is or you will have a BO or a FBO, right?

In this case you did have a FBO (another 'change' signal), so you reversed. I think you did not went down the rabbit hole too much for this level.

As you know, any reversal needs one retrace first, the point where a retrace transforms itself in a reversal or a resume of trend it's another point in time and another 'action point' to look for signals.

I think there is no tool that can give different signals for a retrace and for a reversal at the early beginning (but I can be wrong).

Regards,

 

[nkhoi]

tick chart lets me see double bottoms formed inside an ES bar, interesting!

 

[Bearbelly]

In my preHershey days the 11:35 bar would have looked like an excellent short to me but it had just taken out the rtl on increasing black volume and the 11:35 bar was retracing on decreasing volume indicating more upside coming. Im just posting this because Im feeling good that I have made some real progress in my trading. People who do not watch volume dont have a clue how much information they are missing.

 

[guavaman]

I am not expert on the JHM by any stretch of the imagination. However, it seems to me that the exits are the tricky part. To be fair, not just for this method but for all others as well.

I employ different strategies to exit at the most opportune times, but all are imperfect to varying degrees.

Using the RTL most likely will not only zero out the points, but most likely will cost me some. The YM gives way too many head fakes in both directions. PRV is also a blunt instrument imo. Then of course there is the always exacerbating SS - which seems to give equally strong opposing readings with in fractions of seconds of each other. The ES itself sole purpose appears to be juke and jive and throw as many flaws at me as possible until I just have to walk away.

Nothing seems to give me proper and timely exit indicators. At least under the strains of real time trading. After the fact all is usually clear. [Although situations like the (8-2-07) 14:30 ES bar will always make my head spin.]

By proper and timely exits I mean exit indicators that provide you the opportunity to capture the move you worked hard to get.

These are just my observations, I wonder if others have similar experiences.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from guavaman:

I am not expert on the JHM by any stretch of the imagination. However, it seems to me that the exits are the tricky part. To be fair, not just for this method but for all others as well.

I employ different strategies to exit at the most opportune times, but all are imperfect to varying degrees.

Using the RTL most likely will not only zero out the points, but most likely will cost me some. The YM gives way too many head fakes in both directions. PRV is also a blunt instrument imo. Then of course there is the always exacerbating SS - which seems to give equally strong opposing readings with in fractions of seconds of each other. The ES itself sole purpose appears to be juke and jive and throw as many flaws at me as possible until I just have to walk away.

Nothing seems to give me proper and timely exit indicators. At least under the strains of real time trading. After the fact all is usually clear. [Although situations like the (8-2-07) 14:30 ES bar will always make my head spin.]

By proper and timely exits I mean exit indicators that provide you the opportunity to capture the move you worked hard to get.

These are just my observations, I wonder if others have similar experiences.

I feel for what you are saying. I'm by no means an expert, but I will share these thoughts. First, recall that our focus at this point is learning how to see the market, not monitoring how many points we could have made. I stress that I am not scolding you I"m saying it more so I can hear it (and boy do I need to hear it).

My prediction is that once we are individually qualified in the "seeing the market dept" then our options will unfold dramatically. Also, note that later in the syllabus is a month on other change signals. Me thinks that will become important.

So, one could choose to enter on pt3 and exit at the left trend line, only trading dominant forest level traverses. One could take forest level FTT's and exit on the forest level RTL or perhaps instead use a forest level VE. THe options are (almost) endless.

This is how I've been thinking anyway.

 

[Bearbelly]

guavaman

I assume you must be trading cash for this to be a problem which it indeed is. I would not judge things by the present market tho as it has been pretty wild. The best exit I have found for point three entries, so far, is the projected LTL. It is a compromise as are all exit strategies but seems to be the best compromise for me up to this point. Have you tried this yet? This morning for instance you have your point two on the 1020 bar, point three on the 1035-40 bars and the left trend line was the bottom of the move. Again the point three at 1140 moved to within a tick of the left trend line. You could have made a little more by holding on but it also could have reversed which it often does, at least temporarily. Of course many times it does not make it all the way to the left trendline and then becomes a judgement call whether to take a small profit or wash but this is unavoidable with entries and exits.

 

[guavaman]

Quote from Bearbelly:

guavaman

I assume you must be trading cash for this to be a problem which it indeed is. I would not judge things by the present market tho as it has been pretty wild. The best exit I have found for point three entries, so far, is the projected LTL. It is a compromise as are all exit strategies but seems to be the best compromise for me up to this point. Have you tried this yet? This morning for instance you have your point two on the 1020 bar, point three on the 1035-40 bars and the left trend line was the bottom of the move. Again the point three at 1140 moved to within a tick of the left trend line. You could have made a little more by holding on but it also could have reversed which it often does, at least temporarily. Of course many times it does not make it all the way to the left trendline and then becomes a judgement call whether to take a small profit or wash but this is unavoidable with entries and exits.

BB,

Thanks for the thoughts. I was wondering if possible; could you post your charts. My points don't match up to yours.

I have tried the LTL exit (whether from an FTT or from a Pt3 entry. My dissatisfaction with this is two fold. First by exiting at a quasi arbitrary point I risk missing valuable points. More importantly though, I feel that I am not trading well or correctly. There is no reason to exit other than I want to protect what I my points as opposed to exiting because the data sets said things are right about to change.

Perhaps like Bundle maker said the upcoming months along with diligent practice and study will reveal the market more clearly. It seems very plausible because look where I have come from already .

Your thoughts are welcomed.

John

I agree with