Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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This is something I look for in the taped channels. This is just a personal observation, but I find it valuable for myself. I watch the moving averages and how they travel through the tape. Eventually the moving average will exit the tape. I watch to see what side of the channel, the average is at. Left or right trendline. Lets say in an up tape , price is forming a possible ftt, and yet the m/a is at the right side or even exiting the channel. This is where I look for price to come back to the averages. I have attached a snip of your chart to better explain this. In this example , the 12:40 bar has closed and has now failed to traverse. Take a look at the m/a. It has already exited the tape channel. I now look for volume to confirm that price may be headed toward the average. The m/a is no longer in the tape at 12:40, and a possible non dominant traverse may start here. By 12:55 volume confirmed the break of the tape and non dominant is the correct channel. Price could have easily gone much higher than the m/a here then returned. In this example it did go for the m/a. This is just something I personally look for at possible ftt's, to help determine the direction. In this example at 12:40 you had a clue to the possibility, that your taped channel could form an fbo, fan out channel , or b/o. This is in hindsight here in this example, but this is my actual thoughts ,as tapes and channels form and possible ftt's develop. Personally, I use this well. I hope you can find some value to this.
All the signals are there. You just have to see them:
First, draw a tape from 2 bars... use 2 tapes to form a channel...
Label your points 1, 2 and 3.
position your parallel lines...
Draw the gaussians to match the channel...
Observe and annotate the FTT, BO, etc.
At the of the day, post your charts here. Do not move the lines you have drawn in real time. Do not erase the mistakes... just post it as it is.
Now push the chair back and look at the chart... Go through the bars one by one... compare it to Spyder's chart and see the differences. Ask yourself what were you thinking of at that moment... why did you come up to this analysis or that conclusion.
Signals do not discriminate. What we have to do is practice, practice, practice and practice. "Anticipation" will come when we know what to anticipate.
Welcome to the journey.
Ditto - I had the same problem with a lot of intra bar trend changes. Also in the first major down trend (about the first 2 hours) I kept trying to validate the trend with the gaussians. I know that increasing red gaussians are the sign for a down trend but because the the back to back flaws, I got confused. In hind sight I see what was happening, but in real time it seemed tricky.
The following questions and observations regarding todays chart 7-19-07.
1. Why isn't 10:25 ES bar an FTT?
2. Why did Spyder use the 10:40 (Flaw) bar as a Pt1?
3. Isn't the volume too low (relatively speaking) on the 11:20 bar to consider Price formin an FTT in real time?
4. If the 12:25 bar is an FTT, wouldn't the 12:30 bar also be an FTT?
5. The increasing black 10:05 to 10:25 cause trouble for me.
6. I found the down channel that began with the 11:20 FTT to be very difficult to navigate (stay in) and to exit with anything more than a very small profit.
7. The period from 12:30 to 13:55 was just plain obnoxious. Period.
8. The period referenced above made the down move starting at 14:00 virtually untradable able.
9. The 14:05 bar seemed like an FTT to me in real time.
10. I just don't know what to make of the 14:25 to 14:40 period.
11. The 14:50 bar looked like an FTT to me in real time.
uuuuuugggggggggghhhhhh
1. Why isn't 10:25 ES bar an FTT?
2. Why did Spyder use the 10:40 (Flaw) bar as a Pt1?
3. Isn't the volume too low (relatively speaking) on the 11:20 bar to consider Price formin an FTT in real time?
4. If the 12:25 bar is an FTT, wouldn't the 12:30 bar also be an FTT?
5. The increasing black 10:05 to 10:25 cause trouble for me.
6. I found the down channel that began with the 11:20 FTT to be very difficult to navigate (stay in) and to exit with anything more than a very small profit.
7. The period from 12:30 to 13:55 was just plain obnoxious. Period.
8. The period referenced above made the down move starting at 14:00 virtually untradable able.
9. The 14:05 bar seemed like an FTT to me in real time.
10. I just don't know what to make of the 14:25 to 14:40 period.
11. The 14:50 bar looked like an FTT to me in real time.
uuuuuugggggggggghhhhhh
1. Because its part of a flaw (Dip) - 10:25 AM thru 10:35 AM. The Bar may look exactly like an FTT when it starts out, but If you note "what must come next?" after an FTT, do you see what must come next after this particular bar?
2. I attempted to show the 'steepest' possible channel here. I also used another 'flaw' to form the Point Three. On accelerated channels (Steeper point three channels), flaws often create the Point Three of our channel. We have such an example here.
3. The market moved out of the 'opening' period of the day and now the market finds itself approaching the 'lunchtime' period where volume often trends lower than any other time of the day. One should expect a reduction on overall Volume when comparing the 'open' to the 'lunch' period of the day. In other words, we have changes in pace throughout the day. Certainly everyone has noticed CCC occurs more frequently around midday, rather than, in the first hour of the day. This pace change is no different.
4. Two different fractals. The 12:25 bar is an FTT as long as Price sits in the Blue Channel only. Once Price leaves the Blue Channel, the Blue Channel 'disappears' as if it never existed. On the remaining fractals, we have a Dip (since the Blue Channel never existed).
5. My charts show increasing Red during that time frame, but no matter. What specifically caused you difficulty during that time frame?
6. Again, What specifically caused you difficulty during that time frame? Did you not note the sequences of events ("Do I have a flaw or VE yet?) which unfold in most traverses? Did you fall too far down the rabbit hole and attempt to monitor using incorrect tools at an incorrect resolution level? Did you paper / sym trade when you should have been monitoring? DId you trade real money when you should have been symming?
7. Please note the Volume levels during the time frame referenced. When volume levels drop, Noise plays a much greater role, than it can at higher (greater than 10,000 cars per bar) Volume levels. Please also note the FOMC Minutes release time (Did you have another expectation of Price action leading up to the release other than flat?) Please also note the season - summer. In other words, the time of year, the approaching News item, the time of day all contributed to the low levels of volume normally experienced all summer long. Low Volume levels make for great (and difficult) training exercises for a beginner, but, as I have said before, I don't recommend a beginner trade at those low volume levels.
8. Please review 'Bracket Entry' as discussed previously in this Journal.
9. Flaws often 'look like' FTT's in real time - especially when they have high levels of Volume in relation to the previous bar. However, when "What must come next", doesn't, one then takes appropriate and timely action - immediately. This is how "first by accident, then by design" moves the beginning trader down the path to trading SCT.
10. Even Harmonics
11. See Answer Nine Above.
- Spydertrader
2. I attempted to show the 'steepest' possible channel here. I also used another 'flaw' to form the Point Three. On accelerated channels (Steeper point three channels), flaws often create the Point Three of our channel. We have such an example here.
3. The market moved out of the 'opening' period of the day and now the market finds itself approaching the 'lunchtime' period where volume often trends lower than any other time of the day. One should expect a reduction on overall Volume when comparing the 'open' to the 'lunch' period of the day. In other words, we have changes in pace throughout the day. Certainly everyone has noticed CCC occurs more frequently around midday, rather than, in the first hour of the day. This pace change is no different.
4. Two different fractals. The 12:25 bar is an FTT as long as Price sits in the Blue Channel only. Once Price leaves the Blue Channel, the Blue Channel 'disappears' as if it never existed. On the remaining fractals, we have a Dip (since the Blue Channel never existed).
5. My charts show increasing Red during that time frame, but no matter. What specifically caused you difficulty during that time frame?
6. Again, What specifically caused you difficulty during that time frame? Did you not note the sequences of events ("Do I have a flaw or VE yet?) which unfold in most traverses? Did you fall too far down the rabbit hole and attempt to monitor using incorrect tools at an incorrect resolution level? Did you paper / sym trade when you should have been monitoring? DId you trade real money when you should have been symming?
7. Please note the Volume levels during the time frame referenced. When volume levels drop, Noise plays a much greater role, than it can at higher (greater than 10,000 cars per bar) Volume levels. Please also note the FOMC Minutes release time (Did you have another expectation of Price action leading up to the release other than flat?) Please also note the season - summer. In other words, the time of year, the approaching News item, the time of day all contributed to the low levels of volume normally experienced all summer long. Low Volume levels make for great (and difficult) training exercises for a beginner, but, as I have said before, I don't recommend a beginner trade at those low volume levels.
8. Please review 'Bracket Entry' as discussed previously in this Journal.
9. Flaws often 'look like' FTT's in real time - especially when they have high levels of Volume in relation to the previous bar. However, when "What must come next", doesn't, one then takes appropriate and timely action - immediately. This is how "first by accident, then by design" moves the beginning trader down the path to trading SCT.
10. Even Harmonics
11. See Answer Nine Above.
- Spydertrader
I attach a bar by bar review of yesterday. Although I am monitoring for change or continuation, it would seem that, owing to the coarse nature of using just es and ym price and volume, recognition of change vs. continuation is often very late. This is not surprising but is a concern if one should be able to trade profitably from ftt to ftt without the use of str/squ and/or dom. Part of the problem is spotting the difference between an FTT and a flaw, which is resolved by monitoring volume. However, by the time identification becomes clear, price will frequently have moved several ticks in the "wrong" direction. Intrabar shifts are another cause of concern. Str/squ can flip either side of neutral in the blink of an eye and knowing whether or not a wall on the dom will hold seems very "hit and miss" at present.
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