Needed a beach day ! took a little r&r in sun and sand. This chart is all in hindsight. 2 min. ym on quotetracker. One thing that keeps amazing me, is when I feel I drew my channels well, I take a look at the moving average ,and it seems the m/a flows through the channels like water through pipes. Taking the path of least resistance. I know m/a follows price , for myself, just looking at it this way, helps to see the channels a little clearer. (not to mention the gaussians play a little role in all this ! )
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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Thought I'd resume posting my charts. Had a few rough days figuring it all out, but beginning to see changes /ftt's much clearer.
For me, I find I do the best just using es price & volume, channels, ym price & volume. For the time being, using Str/Sq just adds a layer that just overloads the anticipation/decision making process, so I'll leave that for later. Although I must admit that the PRV tool on the volume bars in QT look like a labor savings device that anyone could use...
For me, I find I do the best just using es price & volume, channels, ym price & volume. For the time being, using Str/Sq just adds a layer that just overloads the anticipation/decision making process, so I'll leave that for later. Although I must admit that the PRV tool on the volume bars in QT look like a labor savings device that anyone could use...
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I am a little confused by the markings on the chart for bars 13:45 and 13:50. 13:45 you have marked as an FTT of a faster paced up channel but not as an FTT of your olive channel. Price clearly doesnt make it to the LTL of the Olive channel and its volume does appear to show any signs of flaw. So, how can we in realtime spot this one as a dip formation? I guess, I mean at what point do we know this isnt going to retrace down? Would we have to wait until we see the 13:55 and its black PRV vol higher or can we tell before?
Quote from The Swordsman:
I am a little confused by the markings on the chart for bars 13:45 and 13:50. 13:45 you have marked as an FTT of a faster paced up channel but not as an FTT of your olive channel.
If you remove the faster paced (blue) up channel from the picture entirely, you should see nothing more than a 'dip' in this sequence. Throughout the day (and on almost every other day), we 'see' examples where we have a 'flaw' on one fractal (slower paced) which creates a 'Point Three' on another (faster fractal).
Quote from The Swordsman:
Price clearly doesn't make it to the LTL of the Olive channel and its volume does appear to show any signs of flaw.
The Olive channel contains 13:45 bar and the subsequent bars. The faster paced (blue) Up Channel does not. It only contains the 13:45 bar. Subsequent bars fall outside this channel.
Quote from The Swordsman:
So, how can we in realtime spot this one as a dip formation?
You 'spot' this flaw the way we 'see' every other flaw - by asking (and answering) the same questions a minimum of 81 times per day. "What do I need to see for continuation, and What do I need to see for change?"
Quote from The Swordsman:
I guess, I mean at what point do we know this isn't going to retrace down? Would we have to wait until we see the 13:55 and its black PRV vol higher or can we tell before?
Any number of pieces of data could have signaled upcoming change prior to 13:55 PRV (STR, DOM Wall, YM Trend Change, T & S Pace Change, etc. etc.). Whether or not these clues did materialize (or more importantly, whether or not you actually noticed them), I cannot say. However, this sequence here works no differently than every other throughout the day (and on every day). No matter what the trader thinks they 'see' with respect to Price and Volume formations, each and every time, the sequence for determining what actually exists remains the same. As a result, by knowing what must come next, a trader develops the ability to 'see' how the market confirms or invalidates which side of the market remains 'the right side.'
- Spydertrader
I do understand that we must work through what must come next for continuation and what must comes next for change, I'm just a little hazy when the situation doesnt appear normal to me. For instance, the 13:45 bar from yesterday (from an Olive channel perspective) has good volume and price does move higher by one tick but does not touch the LTL. My mind doesnt think flaw but FTT. The next bar goes lower on dec red volume so I see that as trying to confirm the FTT. I do see that intrabar the 13:50 bar moved off the lows but still closed .50 lower than it open. The dip looks very obvious now after it happened but the situation leading up to it, didnt have me in the position to anticipate a flaw.
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The dip looks very obvious now after it happened but the situation leading up to it, didn't have me in the position to anticipate a flaw.
Which is why we always anticipate both possibilities (continuation or change) and allow the data sets (the market) to tell us what we have, rather than, predict what we have (FTT or Flaw) and find out later if we correctly guessed or not. Many times, we can 'know' what we have sooner (using only coarse level tools). On occasion, we either have to use fine level tools, or simply wait for the market to speak loud enough so we can hear.
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