Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Spyder,
There was an curious sequence starting around 9:55 today that I had trouble classifying. I noted that the 9:55 and 10:00 black bars showed higher prices on decreasing black volume so I was suspecting a non-dominant black guassian (blue ch retrace). The 10:05 and 10:10 red bars showed lower price on higher volume so this seemed to confirm that we were in a red dominant guassian (blue ch dominant). However, the 10:15 bar showed increasing price on increasing black volume... which I think would be an intrabar guassian change.
How does one reconcile the two red 10:05 and 10:10 bars on increasing red volume with the dominant black guassian shown from 10:00 to 10:30 on your ES chart ?
There was an curious sequence starting around 9:55 today that I had trouble classifying. I noted that the 9:55 and 10:00 black bars showed higher prices on decreasing black volume so I was suspecting a non-dominant black guassian (blue ch retrace). The 10:05 and 10:10 red bars showed lower price on higher volume so this seemed to confirm that we were in a red dominant guassian (blue ch dominant). However, the 10:15 bar showed increasing price on increasing black volume... which I think would be an intrabar guassian change.
How does one reconcile the two red 10:05 and 10:10 bars on increasing red volume with the dominant black guassian shown from 10:00 to 10:30 on your ES chart ?
You correctly note the Intra-Bar Gaussian Shift which occurs during the 10:15 time frame. However, this particular example isn't one which sees dominant Volume switch from Red to Black. At 10:15 AM, we see Volume switch from decreasing Black to increasing Black (within the same bar) as Price breaks through the Right Trend line. We often see these sorts of phenomena develop after the formation of an FTT (Point Three) in close proximity to the RTL of the Down Channel. Price simply doesn't have the room needed to follow the standard decreasing black to increasing black Gaussian moves across multiple bars. As a result, Price and Volume make the needed changes within the same Bar. Pulling up a chart on a faster time frame should provide the clarity you seek.
- Spydertrader
My Trading Platform from today.
As a long time user of QCharts, I have been reluctant to give up on it mainly because of the annotation functionality.
Alas, I have finally decided that I can no longer put up with its shortcomings. I have made the jump to Quote Tracker for futures. This is in no small part due to the fine work of Pr0crast and excav8tr. Thanks guys.
In addition to incorporating their work on the PRV and Stretch/Squeeze, I have opted for Quote Traders DOM (itâs those horizontal stalactites that got me) both run on an IB feed. I actually use the upper part or the IB BookTrader, for trading, sized to fit over the upper part of the Q Trader window. I like the action buttons that they provide for.
I believe the three (IB, QTracker & QTrader) well present all the necessary tools with good data that actually moves in unison on all applications, at a time when the market is actually trading there. What a novel Idea, maybe QCharts will get a clue someday. And this not to mention that it is all free.
Good Trading
As a long time user of QCharts, I have been reluctant to give up on it mainly because of the annotation functionality.
Alas, I have finally decided that I can no longer put up with its shortcomings. I have made the jump to Quote Tracker for futures. This is in no small part due to the fine work of Pr0crast and excav8tr. Thanks guys.
In addition to incorporating their work on the PRV and Stretch/Squeeze, I have opted for Quote Traders DOM (itâs those horizontal stalactites that got me) both run on an IB feed. I actually use the upper part or the IB BookTrader, for trading, sized to fit over the upper part of the Q Trader window. I like the action buttons that they provide for.
I believe the three (IB, QTracker & QTrader) well present all the necessary tools with good data that actually moves in unison on all applications, at a time when the market is actually trading there. What a novel Idea, maybe QCharts will get a clue someday. And this not to mention that it is all free.
Good Trading
Hi Ezzy,
Yes, cumulative volume is the sum of the 5 levels volume, at Ask and at Bid.
The number of futures contracts open is called "Open Interest". This tells you how many available contracts exist at one moment.
In the end there will be one person (at least) that will lose money. For one person to win there must be at least one person to lose. Markets are a negative sum game, which means that as soon as you enter in the market you are already losing money, you can only make money IF you can make someone lose it instead of you.
Who do you think that can really move markets? Or at least give the first impulse?
Some analysis suggests that the largest 3% - 4% of trades (only those over 100 contracts in ES) account for over half of the total volume in the market. If institutional traders or large traders aren't in the market, the market goes nowhere as it will be in VDU/DU volume all the time. I will be in CCC in my channel
Once more, it's the minority that rules, you can only try to front run or follow this guys. We with this methodology are sometimes front running (by using anticipation) other times we follow (see "smart money" in S/S)
Hope this information had helped
Best Regards,
Yes, cumulative volume is the sum of the 5 levels volume, at Ask and at Bid.
The number of futures contracts open is called "Open Interest". This tells you how many available contracts exist at one moment.
In the end there will be one person (at least) that will lose money. For one person to win there must be at least one person to lose. Markets are a negative sum game, which means that as soon as you enter in the market you are already losing money, you can only make money IF you can make someone lose it instead of you.
Who do you think that can really move markets? Or at least give the first impulse?
Some analysis suggests that the largest 3% - 4% of trades (only those over 100 contracts in ES) account for over half of the total volume in the market. If institutional traders or large traders aren't in the market, the market goes nowhere as it will be in VDU/DU volume all the time. I will be in CCC in my channel
Once more, it's the minority that rules, you can only try to front run or follow this guys. We with this methodology are sometimes front running (by using anticipation) other times we follow (see "smart money" in S/S)
Hope this information had helped
Best Regards,
I appreciate the candor and the extensive annotations.
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