Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from windwallker:

Is it me, or does it seem illogical that we havent talked about flaws in detail yet, considering how big a part they play in understanding what we are seeing in realtime? I mean, Spyders charts are full of them and it seems some of us sort of know about them, others are completely lost (me!) and then some think they know but not really. I mean, the easy ones are the low volume ones but I've seen plenty in review of Spyders charts where the vol isnt that low but its still a stall or dip (or whatever).

Am I the only one feeling lost when it comes to flaws?
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go back to May 22 of this Journal... you will see Pr0 posted a recap.
 
Is it me, or does it seem illogical that we havent talked about flaws in detail yet, considering how big a part they play in understanding what we are seeing in realtime? I mean, Spyders charts are full of them and it seems some of us sort of know about them, others are completely lost (me!) and then some think they know but not really. I mean, the easy ones are the low volume ones but I've seen plenty in review of Spyders charts where the vol isnt that low but its still a stall or dip (or whatever).

Am I the only one feeling lost when it comes to flaws?
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Spyder’s charts are littered with flaws( dips, stalls, hitches, cccs and HVS) but I haven’t taken much notice of them up until
Page 655 of the journal or thereabouts. Spyder advises that we go through his charts bar by bar.

"Review and count up the traverses where an FTT happened without a flaw or VE and compare that number to the traverses where FTT followed a flaw or VE. Once mastered you will be able to see what the market is telling us."
Well, I spent hours and hours studying charts looking/identifying these flaws, asking questions via pms. The introduction of Harmonics assisted a great deal, together with time spent in the chatroom with Spyder and in others company most afternoons helped to absorb all this in my subconscious.
I am beginning to see the “flaws and harmonics” in real time and having AHA moments every now and then.
My thanks go to Pr0 for spending hours and hours with me explaining Gaussians, to Spooz and Ellis for telling me” just do it.” Ezzy helping at the beginning. Bundle, Pointone, Mikey have shared so generously. And above all, Jack, Spyder and MAK for setting the tone. I have a long way to go but the FUTURE seems so much brighter now ( Goinglite!!).
 
Spyder,

Sorry to bother you with something you posted last month:

Quote from Spydertrader:

See attached. The Price pattern begins with Bar 7, however, we cannot confuse Bar Seven with an HVS as it is a Breakout Bar. On bar 8, we see what we (at the time) think is an FTT. We then check Volume and note (based on PRV) everything appears simply fine and dandy. We have just the right amount of Volume coming in to form our FTT (decreasing red in an Up Channel). As normal, we need to continue to monitor bar to bar at our "Points of Change" while asking ourselves what do we need for continuation? (decreasing red) and what do we need for change (anything black). Bar nine opens and begins to head lower (again confirming in our minds Bar 8 as an FTT). After forming an equivalent bottom with Bar 8, Price, on Bar 9 heads higher).
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Is the context here (bar 8) the B2R in the steep up channel (I added in purple)? In other words are you asking "what do we need for the B2R to continue and/or what do we need for the B2R to change (or maybe invalidate in this case - another B2R)?". It seems like if you want to see decreasing red for NOC, you must be talking about the R part of the B2R.

On the other hand, if one wanted to see the up channel continue, the one would be looking for black (incr or decr).

I'm prolly off base and confused here but I'm just trying to soak up this cool NOC/CHG sequence debrief.

Thanks,

spooz

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1502425>
 

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Quote from Spydertrader:

In this context, you have continuation to the high side as the flaws formed after Price retraces from the left trend line. In other words, we have flaws showing up in a non-dominant traverse. Perhaps, the market is trying to tell you something here. :D
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Quote from Pr0crast:

Spy already commented on this, but yeah... note the huge black vol bar followed by the tiny red vol bar. Anticip continuation here, but UP, not down. The second I saw that big black vol bar, I saw this as a very likely candidate for a PT1 of an eventual new up channel. I think that qualifies as a spike/triangle wave bar. If you didn't see the black bar as DOMINANT, then the flaw certainly should clue you in, since flaws only happen in DOM traverses.
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Thanks Spydertrader and Pr0crast. I will pay more attention to the context of the flaw regarding dominant / non dom traverses.

BTW, I held long based on the high volume of the reversal bar and the fact that the flaw was entered from the bottom. Good to see my interpretation was in line!


<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1502216">
 
Quote from spooz_trader1:

Is the context here (bar 8) the B2R in the steep up channel (I added in purple)? In other words are you asking "what do we need for the B2R to continue and/or what do we need for the B2R to change (or maybe invalidate in this case - another B2R)?". It seems like if you want to see decreasing red for NOC, you must be talking about the R part of the B2R.
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Everything depends on one's perspective - holding long or already reversed short. If we believed the market had shown us an FTT, we'd have entered short. Since we already (in this context) headed short, we want to see decreasing Red Volume (the /\ of the B2R) back to the Right Trend Line, and increasing Red Volume as Price Breaks Out of the RTL for continuation - forming the second / in the \/ of the R2R. Again, in this context, we see change when we return to the R2B Volume Gaussian (\/) as Price fails to Break Out and heads higher.

Of course, the exact opposite holds true had we chosen to hold long (believing the formation a flaw), rather than, already headed short.

I hope the above provides some clarity. If not, please let me know.

- Spydertrader
 
Can you please explain the channel drawn from 13:05 as your point 1 (olive green up channel)? I dont understand why pt 2 is the 2nd bar. Shouldnt pts 1 & 2 be on the 13:05 bar??

Quote from Spydertrader:

06-15-2007 ES Chart

- Spydertrader
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Quote from The Swordsman:

Can you please explain the channel drawn from 13:05 as your point 1 (olive green up channel)? I dont understand why pt 2 is the 2nd bar. Shouldnt pts 1 & 2 be on the 13:05 bar??
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Sure, but as you can see, even after making the changes, we don't 'see' the market any differently (other than perhaps having the ability to anticipate the FBO).

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1502447>
 

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