Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Pepe]

Quote from Spydertrader:

And unless the Square Wave Odd Harmonic Price formation occurred within a flaw, what happened to Price? Could you 'see' the Odd Harmonic before you viewed that bar as an FTT?

Well, the first DT (10:25 and :30) confirmed the FTT (10:30), but I only realized that in the following bar. It was because of that, that I started to look for DTs and DBs everywhere

There was one DT that mistaked me, the one at 12:20, 12:25. At first I thought it will be a FTT, but then price went up making the real FTT after the (now I know) dip.

I also noted that we had a Spike at 14:30 (three wave?), also, it seems that price BO of channels almost everytime when odd Harmonics shows up. Don't know if this is only a coincidence...

Thank you,

 

[Steve Tvardek]

How come the 11:35 bar is not considered an FTT? It doesnt make it to the LTL and the next bar is lower on decreasing red which is what we'd want to see. Would you mind walking through these few bars?

Quote from Spydertrader:

06-04-2007 ES Chart

- Spydertrader

 

[mikeytrader]

Attached as promised is the xls which will work with a few setup tweaks.

Steps:

1. Save xls to hardrive
2. Launch IB
3. Make sure IB under configure>>api>>enable dde and enable active-x are turned on
4. open xls and when prompted to update just say no
5. type in your IB user id in cell B47 and make sure B48 is the current contract and hit enter
6. save the xls
7. click on the setup button
8. ib data should start to update.

the next time you open the xls you can now chose update.


For anyone else using other brokers or data providers please modify and post the code here so we can all share.

best of luck

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Steve Tvardek:

How come the 11:35 bar is not considered an FTT? It doesnt make it to the LTL and the next bar is lower on decreasing red which is what we'd want to see.

See Attached.

We begin to think we see an FTT on the 11:35 Bar as Price Fails To Traverse to the Left Trend Line. In addition, we see (at the 11:40 Bar) decreasing red Volume which appears to confirm our hypothesis. When Price exits the blue up channel on decreasing Volume, the market has spoken loud and clear: We have drawn the channel incorrectly.

Our job now involves finding the correct channel. Since we would need to 'fan' out our current (blue) channel in an effort to match our channel to the Gaussian (as the 11:40 bar approaches its close), we may still see 11:35 as an FTT and the 11:40 now as an FBO. As the 11:45 bar opens and we note initially increasing black volume as Price begins to move higher, we begin to think our 11:35 - 11:45 bars have formed a Dip (yellow highlight), rather than an FTT. As time moves forward, we see PRV saying we should end with decreasing Volume effectively ending our view of the bars in question as a Dip. As the 11:45 bar approaches its close, we note the telltale Volume signature (Red Volume Circle) of an HVS (Green Highlight). As Price exits the (blue) up Channel (11:50 Bar) on increasing red Volume and forms an equivalent low to the 11:40 bar, we easily see we now have formed a lateral channel out of our HVS. Since we know lateral channels come from Even Harmonics which signals continuation, we need to make sure we know from which direction we entered the channel, in order to anticipate our exit from the lateral channel. As Volume continues to drop off during the 11:55 and 12:00 bars, our HVS lateral transitions into a CCC lateral (Pink Price Highlight / Light Blue Volume Highlight). Still a lateral, and therefore still Even Harmonics, we look back to the 11:35 Bar to see that Price entered this channel from below, so we can expect Price to exit our channel to the high side.

I hope you find the above information helpful.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1490394>

 

[ang_99]

Spyder, so when you say

"When Price exits the blue up channel on decreasing Volume, the market has spoken loud and clear: We have drawn the channel incorrectly."

is this why you drew the new green channel? If so, how did you come up with your point 1 in the green channel? Why did you decide the 11:15 bar was your point 1 not the 11:00 bar?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ang_99:

is this why you drew the new green channel? If so, how did you come up with your point 1 in the green channel? Why did you decide the 11:15 bar was your point 1 not the 11:00 bar?

When the market tells you that you have drawn incorrect channels, you have to draw new ones. It is for this reason, both the Yellow Lateral and the 'fanned' Green Up Channel exist. As to why I choose to 'fan' from a Point Three, review this post.

- Spydertrader

 

[ang_99]

Quote from Spydertrader:

As to why I choose to 'fan' from a Point Three, review this post.

- Spydertrader [/B]

That makes sense.. thx.

 

[callmate]

Wonderful Mikey, thanks for sharing.

Good trading to all!

 

[Steve Tvardek]

So, in essence, we should have taken the 11:35 bar short on the potential FTT and then waited to see PRV of the next bar (11:40) as lower and see price exiting the channel on less volume, and at this point, realize that we do not have an FTT but rather an incorrect channel.

I really cant see not taking this trade initially as I dont know my channel is incorrect until after the fact, I guess the key is to see that price exited on dec red vol which is indicative of an incorrect channel.

Thanks!

Quote from Spydertrader:

See Attached.

We begin to think we see an FTT on the 11:35 Bar as Price Fails To Traverse to the Left Trend Line. In addition, we see (at the 11:40 Bar) decreasing red Volume which appears to confirm our hypothesis. When Price exits the blue up channel on decreasing Volume, the market has spoken loud and clear: We have drawn the channel incorrectly.

Our job now involves finding the correct channel. Since we would need to 'fan' out our current (blue) channel in an effort to match our channel to the Gaussian (as the 11:40 bar approaches its close), we may still see 11:35 as an FTT and the 11:40 now as an FBO. As the 11:45 bar opens and we note initially increasing black volume as Price begins to move higher, we begin to think our 11:35 - 11:45 bars have formed a Dip (yellow highlight), rather than an FTT. As time moves forward, we see PRV saying we should end with decreasing Volume effectively ending our view of the bars in question as a Dip. As the 11:45 bar approaches its close, we note the telltale Volume signature (Red Volume Circle) of an HVS (Green Highlight). As Price exits the (blue) up Channel (11:50 Bar) on increasing red Volume and forms an equivalent low to the 11:40 bar, we easily see we now have formed a lateral channel out of our HVS. Since we know lateral channels come from Even Harmonics which signals continuation, we need to make sure we know from which direction we entered the channel, in order to anticipate our exit from the lateral channel. As Volume continues to drop off during the 11:55 and 12:00 bars, our HVS lateral transitions into a CCC lateral (Pink Price Highlight / Light Blue Volume Highlight). Still a lateral, and therefore still Even Harmonics, we look back to the 11:35 Bar to see that Price entered this channel from below, so we can expect Price to exit our channel to the high side.

I hope you find the above information helpful.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1490394>

 

[R/R]

Quote from Spydertrader:

See Attached.
snip... we need to make sure we know from which direction we entered the channel, in order to anticipate our exit from the lateral channel.
snip... we look back to the 11:35 Bar to see that Price entered this channel from below, so we can expect Price to exit our channel to the high side...

Spyder could you please help with appying this flaw enty determination to my chart snippit below which has slightly different channels?

As you can see I used the 10:50 bar as point one and therefore had a steeper channel than yours which needed to be fanned after 11:15. this created my blue up channel and the 11:35 bar became a VE instead of FTT as in your example. The 11:40 bar became the potential FTT and therefore started the HVS. So price entered from above and would be anticipated to leave downward. This obviously didn't happen.

Now one could say 12:15 became an FBO and over-rode the exit logic.
Comments?