Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Me too 
No worries, I dont care who is wrong or right, hopefully we will learn something.
No worries, I dont care who is wrong or right, hopefully we will learn something.
Hey Spyder, I noticed you drew an upchannel starting w/ Pt 1 at 10:55, but then later in the day a very similar situation sets up but you decided to use the 14:30 bar as your Pt 1 as opposed to the 14:35 bar.
Was there a specific reason you chose this? They seem to be so similar but maybe I'm missing something thats important. Does it have anything to do with the last part of the 14:30 bar rising higher and closing the way it did?
Was there a specific reason you chose this? They seem to be so similar but maybe I'm missing something thats important. Does it have anything to do with the last part of the 14:30 bar rising higher and closing the way it did?
A FTT can ONLY occur on a right to left traverse. However, this doesn't require price to START at the right trendline. I recommend that you go back and review the journal again, as this question has been answered before and you will gain some good insight with additional review.
As an aside, it seems like you are simulating. If you haven't previously had good success trading futures (or stocks) with another method, I further recommend that you stop simulating and simply observe price action on the ES and YM. The simulator takes your focus away from where it should be, and puts it on PnL.
I hope this helps, but as always, YMMV.
-Au
I usually ignore this type of post, but here I find myself making one of my own...
Two left charts are QT (probably w/ IB), and two right charts are esignal and QC.
Don't think it would have affected any trades, but still should make anyone using esig/qc think twice about paying $100+/mo for a feed that often leaves out 50% of the volume...
Two left charts are QT (probably w/ IB), and two right charts are esignal and QC.
Don't think it would have affected any trades, but still should make anyone using esig/qc think twice about paying $100+/mo for a feed that often leaves out 50% of the volume...
Yes, exactly, which is what happened on the 15:25 bar (started lower, traversed higher). Following a volitility expansion on the previous bar, I saw this bar as potential FTT. As pointed out, the extraordinary low volume made it more likely to be a flaw.
Hi guys,
The way I usually look at it is there are two prominent flavors of FTT.
There are the forest FTTs, where a dominant traverse, as a whole, fails to make it to its pre-established LTL. If there is a volatility expansion, there can only be this kind of FTT after an actual retrace has occurred and a new dominant traverse has begun.
<img src="http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/6318/forestzl6.png">
Then there is the tree or traverse FTT, in which a bar simply fails to reach the LTL, even if it did reach the LTL on the prior bar. This is then followed by decreasing volume of the opposite color and a retrace.
<img src="http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/1756/treeqi8.png">
To me, the former suggests that there is a greater chance of a channel BO, X2X, or roll-over after the retrace, while the latter just tells me that this dominant traverse has finished (and nothing more, unless gaussians say so).
Of course, these are just the conclusions drawn from my own observations and I'm willing to consider those of others'.
The way I usually look at it is there are two prominent flavors of FTT.
There are the forest FTTs, where a dominant traverse, as a whole, fails to make it to its pre-established LTL. If there is a volatility expansion, there can only be this kind of FTT after an actual retrace has occurred and a new dominant traverse has begun.
<img src="http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/6318/forestzl6.png">
Then there is the tree or traverse FTT, in which a bar simply fails to reach the LTL, even if it did reach the LTL on the prior bar. This is then followed by decreasing volume of the opposite color and a retrace.
<img src="http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/1756/treeqi8.png">
To me, the former suggests that there is a greater chance of a channel BO, X2X, or roll-over after the retrace, while the latter just tells me that this dominant traverse has finished (and nothing more, unless gaussians say so).
Of course, these are just the conclusions drawn from my own observations and I'm willing to consider those of others'.
Yes. As bundlemaker pointed out when you have significantly lower volume on the bar you believe is an FTT, your brain should think the market shows 'flaw' in the context of continuation or change. In other words, had you already reversed short (off a DOM Wall and a Squeeze), you'd then start to think, "Cool. I have an FTT here, so I am fine." However, since we continue to monitor the market while sweeping all the tools, you notice (a few moments later) the significantly lower Volume forming on a PRV basis. At this point, you change your mind from FTT to 'flaw' and reverse again back to long. This mental process and immediate (and appropriate) action, provides the process behind my old comment regarding how one begins to use the SCT methods.
First by accident, then by design
The 15:25 Bar does make an attempt to Hit te Left trend Line after a Volatility Expansion (and a Price pullback) on the 15:20 bar. One could have easily seen this bar as an FTT if one had missed the Volume clue.
Quote from Pepe:
Regarding the post about 'Harmonics', I think today I saw 'square waves' everywhere
And unless the Square Wave Odd Harmonic Price formation occurred within a flaw, what happened to Price? Could you 'see' the Odd Harmonic before you viewed that bar as an FTT?
Note the differences between the two bars. One closes down, the other up. Also note, the difference between the bars which occur after the two mentioned in your post. These differences create a 'Point One,' which if used in both cases, creates significantly different channels in terms of the 'steepness' of their slopes. I went for 'similar' steepness, and at the time, it simply made better sense to me to draw the channels as I did.
I hope that makes sense.
The bar in question created Volatility Expansions on two different fractal channels. In addition, an attempt to 'fan' the channel using the Previous Point Three would have resulted in a 'down' channel (rather than a 'fanned' uptrend). Having already watch a Stretch signal fire off, I simply labeled the Bar BO and moved onto the next traverse.
- Spydertrader
Take a look at the ES gaussians on Spyder's Friday pm post. N.B. the 10:00 am bar's volume. Now take a look at the same volume bar(s) in his posts during the exchange with you.
Mine did the same thing
I've also had a situation where the delayed data from Yahoo showed up before that of Qcharts, and even when QCharts finally backfilled the data was wrong. I'm definitely in the market for something different, but I'd like it to have fundamental data. If I have to, I'll get separate services, but what a pain...The real issue is simply this - when I have data holes like what you pointed out, it causes me to mistrust what I see on the chart - adding a stumbling block to the learning process.
-Au
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