Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Isnt the long HVS around 13:20 confusing b/c the volume looks so erratic? Usually we see volume decreasing across the HVS correct?
When we have a shorter HVS (3 or 4 bars) we normally see the telltale decreasing volume of oscillating color (RBRB or BRBR) - typical of an HVS . As the HVS extends further out in time (into a longer lateral), the opportunity for all sorts of Volume changes develop. However, by time we move into this area of lateral extension, we have already eliminated all other Flaw formations. One may see an HVS turn into a CCC the longer it continues (especially in the late summer months). When this happens, simply sideline until volatility improves. The key to alleviating any confusion stems from lateral movement and Even Harmonics which represents continuation and calls for one action - hold. The HVS to which you refer doesn't start out as a lateral, but does finish as one. Perhaps, this added some lack of clarity to the situation as well.
- Spydertrader
Spyder, I'm wanna give my thought process to this HVS situtaion and would appreciate any critiques you may have. I didnt see this as an HVS at the time, perhaps b/c it is longer than most that I've seen.
I see the 13:15 bar as a VE of my up channel. This bar cannot be an FTT by definition. The 13:20 bar i see could potentially be an FTT. However, the very next bar shows dec black (instead of dec red, which would confirm the FTT) so I eliminate the 13:20 bar as an FTT. Next I see the 13:35 bar as the next potential FTT, however the next bar again, is not dec red. Finally, the 13:50 bar, again another FTT candidate, has the following bar show dec red so I see this bar (13:50) as the FTT. Sure enough, prices head lower.
Fire away
I see the 13:15 bar as a VE of my up channel. This bar cannot be an FTT by definition. The 13:20 bar i see could potentially be an FTT. However, the very next bar shows dec black (instead of dec red, which would confirm the FTT) so I eliminate the 13:20 bar as an FTT. Next I see the 13:35 bar as the next potential FTT, however the next bar again, is not dec red. Finally, the 13:50 bar, again another FTT candidate, has the following bar show dec red so I see this bar (13:50) as the FTT. Sure enough, prices head lower.
Fire away
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Fire away
You determined what the 13:20 bar wasn't. If we don't have an FTT, then when do we have?
Remember, Flaws do provide 'signals for change' within the framework of this methodology. We simply don't recognize them as such when trading at a Forest or Tree Level Resolution. At these Resolution Levels, we view flaws as continuation signals (we hold through them) in order to know which side of the Market to have our trade.
The reason why we need to know what we do have (if we do not have an FTT) is so we can know what to anticipate next. Here is where the beginner trader learns to transition to the next step. Most beginners only react to what they see - in the Now. What I do (and what others who have success with these methods do), in an almost unconscious fashion (sports memory), is anticipate what happens next and compare that anticipated sequence in time to the current data sets. In other words, we need to know what we do have in order to anticipate the next sequence.
A stall (in this example) would show increasing black, and allow us to anticipate a similar level of volume (and similar price move) to what we experienced on the VE bar. CCC (occurring over significant periods of time) would allow us to anticipate "Four O'Clock Drift" as described in the Jokari Window Document.
We need to know always what the market says (continuation or change), and we arrive at this conclusion by understanding what we have in front of our eyes. When we cannot determine what we do have immediately, we arrive at our answer by eliminating what we don't have. After eliminating the impossible, whatever remains gives us the correct answer.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Bear, maybe this will help, but I admittedly don't know a great deal about this and I suspect there is some deeper meaning to harmonic action beyond merely a labeling tool.
Odd harmonics is like a square wave. On the chart it would appear as a lateral, price moves out of lateral, only to form a new lateral, slightly above or below the prior.
Even harmonics is more like price ramping up and down, H&S patterns, etc.
Hope that helps a bit.
Thanks Spyder!
Just a follow up question:
1. When you say a stall (in this example) would show increasing black, you mean that HAD this been a stall, the black volume of the 13:25 bar would supercede the volume of the 13:20 bar when it closed? Then, if this had happened, knowing what we know about stalls, that we would expect to see a similar bar to the VE bar at 13:15 to follow?
Just a follow up question:
1. When you say a stall (in this example) would show increasing black, you mean that HAD this been a stall, the black volume of the 13:25 bar would supercede the volume of the 13:20 bar when it closed? Then, if this had happened, knowing what we know about stalls, that we would expect to see a similar bar to the VE bar at 13:15 to follow?
Correct.
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