Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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As touched on above by CF, P1, and Spyder, there was a real nugget revealed by Spy in the May 25 ET chat transcript. I've edited it up below b/c I think it deserves some extra discussion/examples in the future:

The secret to finding reversals: Flaws only develop in dominant traverses. Therefore, if you see a flaw before the next dominant traverse in the current channel, that means there has been a change in sentiment and the dominant switched. Again: If flaws ONLY happen in dominant traverses, then a flaw in a non-dom must mean the OLD dominant channel is no longer operating.
 
Yes, indeed.

This seems to be a very nice hint when looking for change in dominant sentiment. The problem is: for me, I find it very difficult to recognize 'Stalls' (or 'Hitches') in Real Time, the reason of course is because I fail to understand the 'particularities' of each of them :)

'Dips' seemed ok, as they have a very peculiar shape (very low volume, small bar), HVS can be found sometimes by paying attention to decr red and black volume in a lateral move.

Now 'Stalls' (and 'Hitches') are very hard to understand even in hindsight. I tried to do some research about flaws this weekend, and I found among several information, a hand drawn image in this thread (it is at page 149 of pr0crast Volume 1) that shows an example of each flaw. This is referred as a 'temporary pause' being two small bars in different directions...it seems to me like an 'extension' of a dip.

I also found a quote from Jack about Stalls, that as I understand it, is contrary to the above explanation, as it says 'Stall are ends of trends where you can exit ...' :confused:

Stalls are ends of trends where you can exit and sit sidelined during risk periods where direction is not defined. What you see are consecutive bar crossovers of the INDU by the YM. This is because smart money is sitting on a narrow price range and the INDU is flaming up and down around those values in a hyper manner. I could have said the picture by commenting in the opposite way vis avis INDU and then YM. We need to stay on YM as smart money which is leading the cash which in turn, by the signals we take leads ES.

Stalls last quite a while and the cash is relatively volatile. here in mentoring the person working tells me it is "mud". We sit out mud.

Hitches are intermediately occurring formations during longer trends. They are small short lived low volatility stalls where the trend resumes. At first no one can differentiate a stall from a hitch. So do not exit at first until a stall is evident. No ruch no change in value of exit . A 2 pair oscillation in ES is a likely thing during this early time. You either get a trend resumption on ES volume picking up or you exit as the time duration of a hitch is exceeded and you then know a stall is evident.

Also, when I analyze 'Stalls' in Spyder's charts I can't find any major characteristic that relates them, for instance:
- It’s not a low volume bar (some of them are >20K)
- It’s not a trend contrary bar
- It’s not a small volatility bar

What I found was this:
- It is a one bar flaw
- Sometimes YM is near the SMA20 when 'Stalls' happened in ES.

Due to Jack’s quote, I am now curious in find out if STR/SQU can be a used as a Stall finder, or at least be of some help to provide some more clues to this.

'Hitches' are even more mysterious, as are rarely seen.

'Seeing' flaws in YM also seems very difficult as there are a huge amount of 'potential' candidates :)

I hope this can add some help to this discussion...

Best Regards,
 
The attached .pdf file is a compilation of some discussion on flaws from the ET Chat last week. I edited it for my own use and reference but it should be useful to others.
 
Quote from R/R:

The attached .pdf file is a compilation of some discussion on flaws from the ET Chat last week. I edited it for my own use and reference but it should be useful to others.
sorry, file didn't attach - trying again
 

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Here's an index I recently started for quickly linking to Spyder's daily ES chart posts. This has helped me to quickly pull up charts for review since I don't print them out.

Hope others find this useful also.

I use Open Office instead of MS Office. Hope this Excel conversion worked ok.
 

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Quote from ticktrade:

R/R
Thanks for sharing.
very cool stuff.
I thank CFerret for engaging Spyder in the conversations and creating the discussion.

edit: its a given that I also thank Spyder for his generousity!
 
Per Spydertrader (last post down the page):
A 'Stall' represents a temporary slowing of price movement in the direction of the dominant trend. Usually represented by an opposite color Price and Volume Bar (but not always) a stall normally falls 'inside' the previous Price bar and has significantly lower Volume than the previous Volume bar.
Quote from Pepe:

... Now 'Stalls' (and 'Hitches') are very hard to understand even in hindsight. ...
 
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