Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Might as well complete the sequence...

Increasing Black to the guassian peak at 10:00
FTT
Decreasing Red to RTL
BO
Increasing Red (R2R)

==> "Change"

spooz

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1478626>
 

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The scenario I am about to describe seems to be one of the last sticking points I have to deal with. The attached chart is from just moments ago. I called the last FTT annotated on the chart and marked the pt1. Then the up tape to pt2 occurred and the retrace to pt3 began. All appeared well as the retrace was on dec red prv for that whole first red bar and roughly half of the second red bar. Then, intrabar, inc red kicked in and took us to a new low, at which point I labeled the pt2 as an FBO.

First: at the forest "plus" level at which I''m trading (entering on the FTT not the pt3), I really couldn't tell the pt3 wasn't going to happen until the trade was roughly b/e (+ or -). Do I have this correct and does my process look correct?

I also would have been hesitant to get short again, even on the incr red prv because the volume wasn't near that of the last gaussian peak. At this point I don't feel confident about what's going on so I would probably just wait until things became clear again.

Which brings up a question regarding pt3 channels. There are three different ways to get a pt1 (pt1 forms at the LTL, beyond the previous extreme price, or shy of the previous extreme price) and pt2 can form within the previous channel or after the break out or even failed breakout. Is this micro analyzing or do these various combinations tell us something?
 

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Again things seemed very clear. Didn't take all the trades due in part to distractions at home and in part to fear. So used to being fooled by the market I still have times when I don't trust what I see. Missed the runup. Took a point short on FTT before the 10:00am news and exited for the release. This seems the safest move on my resolution. Got good portions of the short legs.
The 11:00 - 11:10 bars had me confused as far as rentering the short position. The volume made me think we might be reversing to an up channel. I did enter short on a 2 min tape break and things quickly proved themselves.
Any comments on that sequence would be helpful.
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

The scenario I am about to describe seems to be one of the last sticking points I have to deal with. The attached chart is from just moments ago. I called the last FTT annotated on the chart and marked the pt1. Then the up tape to pt2 occurred and the retrace to pt3 began. All appeared well as the retrace was on dec red prv for that whole first red bar and roughly half of the second red bar. Then, intrabar, inc red kicked in and took us to a new low, at which point I labeled the pt2 as an FBO.

First: at the forest "plus" level at which I''m trading (entering on the FTT not the pt3), I really couldn't tell the pt3 wasn't going to happen until the trade was roughly b/e (+ or -). Do I have this correct and does my process look correct?

I also would have been hesitant to get short again, even on the incr red prv because the volume wasn't near that of the last gaussian peak. At this point I don't feel confident about what's going on so I would probably just wait until things became clear again.
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Hey Bundle,

FWIW, If you fan a new RTL on the 11:05/11:10 bar (pt 1 10:30), then the gaussian peak at 10:55 followed by th retrace synchs, IMO. At this steep channel RTL "action point", you noted increasing Red. From a "change" or "continuation" point of view, you would have need to seen increasing black (B2B) for "change", right? So, unlike the 10:05 FTT that led to "change" , the 11:00 FTT FBO'd the steeper RTL and led to "continuation".

I hear you on the PV interpretation ("... volume wasn't near that of the last gaussian peak"...). IMO, this is yet another example of price making new lows on decreasing red volume. Of course, the volume was still extreme but significantly lower than the gaussian peak at 10:55.

spooz
 
Quote from bundlemaker:
..

First: at the forest "plus" level at which I''m trading (entering on the FTT not the pt3)
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you enter at FTT (P1) so you suppose to exit at FTT (P2).
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

Pt2 is not an FTT on the same resolution. This is not correct.
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Quote from Spydertrader:

The Beginning …….

... Once you locate an FTT and begin to follow price from that location, look for three possible ‘End Effects’ and take appropriate action.

1. Another FTT (Reverse)
2. An FBO (Exit)
3. A BO (Hold)

..
Good Journey to you all.

- Spydertrader
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how about #2?
 
Quote from bundlemaker:

The scenario I am about to describe seems to be one of the last sticking points I have to deal with.
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I apologize for taking so long to respond. The market had my attention.

Before you go too far down the road of over analysis, please view the YM during this time frame, and see what information one might have gleaned from it.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1478902>
 

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Quote from spooz_trader1:

IMO, this is yet another example of price making new lows on decreasing red volume. Of course, the volume was still extreme but significantly lower than the gaussian peak at 10:55.
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Spyder and Jack have both commented that any volume over Extreme levels they consider to be equal. In other words, if you are in the extreme zone you don't need to compare volume - only price.

-Au
 
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