Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Spydertrader]

Quote from CFerret:

On attached picture (and YM) there is a B2B so according to rules I'd say it's a PT3.

It is a Point Three, but its on a much 'finer' resolution level (limb), and as such, I didn't feel like trading it (after this morning's fun). I could have annotated it, but then, I'd have all those extra green arrows that give everyone heart attacks. Instead, I left it alone in an effort to discourage traders from going too far down the rabbit hole.

Quote from CFerret:

P. S. Checked yesterday T&S and found that huge size hit which moved price higher.

If anyone else wants to review the discussion from today's chat log (if you can wade through the "Flame Wars" while doing so), feel free to review the discussion between Cferret, tradingbug, myself and a few others with respect to how the market played out this afternoon. Reading while looking at your charts may help provide some clarity. I think the conversation started around 12:45 PM (Someone, please correct me if I am wrong on that).

- Spydertrader

 

[CFerret]

Quote from Spydertrader:

It is a Point Three, but its on a much 'finer' resolution level (limb), and as such, I didn't feel like trading it (after this morning's fun). I could have annotated it, but then, I'd have all those extra green arrows that give everyone heart attacks. Instead, I left it alone in an effort to discourage traders from going too far down the rabbit hole.

Ah ok. The most important thing for me to know is that I didn't interpret market wrong. But honestly I also just didn't like it's shape so finished my day there and it really happened to be just a tight continuation flag.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from bundlemaker:

I'm not seeing the specific logic of doing a pt1 at 13:15 and am wondering about possibly having a pt1 at the BO of the earlier CCC (around 12:45).

When fanning out channels, Jack recycles his previous Point One. Because I look at a need to fan as a slowing down of market pace (and therefore, potentially providing an opportunity for the market to begin to roll over), I choose instead to recycle Point Three's into new Point One's. Doing so causes me to have to 'fan' less often, and allows me to 'see' the change in pace better. During the time frame you posted above, my original Point Three started waaaaay back. To me, recycling from that point, so far away, didn't make sense. Instead, I chose to recycle from an FBO that bounced off the RTL. In this fashion, I mirrored the use of a 'Point Three' - just further down the line. In other words, Any time I have Price return to the RTL, only to bounce directly off and move higher, I consider using that point as a new Point One, if need be - especially when the Points One and Three started so far back in the day from where I need the fan.

I hope the above provides some clarity.

- Spydertrader

 

[ivob]

Quote from Spydertrader:

..In addition, flaws forming at or near trendlines deserve closer inspection that normal.

I hope you find the above useful.

- Spydertrader

Thank you for the explanation.

It is clear to me that one cannot stop monitoring, lean back and say "Oh well, this is HVS, price should come out on the other side". You have to watch it very closely.

regards,
Ivo

 

[ivob]

Quote from EstebanUno:

Spydertrader,

That walk thru of Ivo's proposed HVS changed my perspective of the annotations on your chart. I see now that you are annotating how it turned out, not necessarily how you saw it at the time. You may have thought bar 8 was an FTT, and even traded it, then thought it was the start of HVS, then back to FTT, but when all was said and done, you annotate it as it turned out, without regard to what your actions were.

With that perspective I withdraw my questions about the dbl bottom FTTs on expansion. They looked like FTTs as they occurred, I traded them, they turned out not to be.

Fair enough,
Esteban

That's our method. We act (immediately) to make money and worry if it was right later. The minutes after the trade you watch very carefully for signals that validate your choice but even more important signals that invalidate it.

regards,
Ivo

 

[ivob]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Whoops! On Bar 10 we do not see increasing black. We see increasing red (possibly decreasing red at first, but red none the less). Since increasing red does not drive Price higher, we realize we have made a second error (First on the FTT [it actually was an FTT] and second on the misidentification of the HVS).

I have reviewed the video of this and tried to identify the moments where we know this is not an HVS (so on incr. red volume). In my opinion this does happens when we are three ticks below the bottom trendline of what we thought to be an HVS. We get a squeeze there and increasing red after that.

Was this also the moment you found out it was not an HVS? I find this rather late.

The video can be downloaded here. It is 600 KB and the length is 3 minutes. I annotated the moments I thought were important.

regards,
Ivo

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

Was this also the moment you found out it was not an HVS? I find this rather late.

My description above with respect to, "When did we know this was not an HVS?" used only the ES as a monitoring tool. While additional tools are available to each trader, not all individuals following this Journal currently use all available tools. Also, tools not yet discussed (DOM, T&S, Tic Charts) provide additional clues which may alert the trader to a signal of change much sooner than "three tics south of the boarder." Specifically, monitoring the DOM Wall provides one example of how a trader can know sooner than your video suggests. Lastly, using only the tools you record in your video, The YM forms a Point Three Down Channel (9 seconds into the video) using the 3 red bars on the right side of the chart. Annotating the YM in such a fashion, and then asking the question, "What do I need for continuation or change?" allows a trader to 'see' the breakdown in Price out of the lateral, prior to, the actual occurrence.

I hope the above provides the additional clarity you seek.

- Spydertrader

 

[spooz_trader1]

Anyone see this FTT on the 10:05 bar? Extreme volume on the 10:00 bar followed by a retrace (not shown) to the steep up channel RTL. I think this is a good example of a FTT that is in the vicinity of a gaussian peak.

spooz

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1476988>

 

[bi9foot]

ES so far.

 

[bi9foot]

YM: