Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Your chart tells me that you do not understand what continuation means in this context.
You have to be very clear which fractal you are on. Price is always changing but in the context of the channels price forms it is continuing. You only take action on change (hold is not an action). You hold while the dominant signal being carried in the channel continues.
A non-dominant traverse (retrace) of a forest channel is change, then continuation, at the tree level (think thin tapes) but more importantly is continuation at the forest level (think thick Pt 3 channel). Read that again.
A retrace that starts from an FTT is an early sign of change. If you subsequently see the new direction become dominant then that is continuation following change.
If you look at individual bar formation you will see ftt's of the bars themselves - but that doesn't mean it is efficient to take every one as actionable change. Much of the price movement is noise, not dominant signal.
To take an extreme example to illustrate the point: if you take an FTT on a weekly chart to enter then you would hold until you see signs of change on the weekly channel. You may drop down as far as the daily occasionally to finesse the turns, but you don't want to be frantic and caught up in noise so you get back on the weekly ASAP. Mellow.
Thanks for the replies Ivo, PointOne, nkhoi.
I think you are misunderstanding me. I agree with what all of you have said, and understand the general concept. At least I believe I do. But this exercise was not about taking action on change, but rather about anticipating when change might occur, based on channel context and PRV, and therefore looking at the finer tools. For example if there is a declining volume with trending price and the channel context is such that an FTT could occur, there is no change, but it is certainly time to look at the finer tools in anticipation of change.
That would cut into finer tool monitoring time, only anticipating B2B, R2R. I'll keep that idea in mind tomorrow.
No Ivo, I was definetely monitoring for change (reread my first sentence), but after a while I realized that there were very few bars that I didn't feel that change could be reasonably anticipated. If I marked all the areas on the chart where I felt change could be anticipated, it would have been practically one big ellipse.
If we consult the YM because it leads the ES, what good does it do us to check it after the signal for change has already occurred on the ES?
Everyone interested please reference Spydertrader's recent posts on this subject. This one particularly sums up what I was looking for:
I think you are misunderstanding me. I agree with what all of you have said, and understand the general concept. At least I believe I do. But this exercise was not about taking action on change, but rather about anticipating when change might occur, based on channel context and PRV, and therefore looking at the finer tools. For example if there is a declining volume with trending price and the channel context is such that an FTT could occur, there is no change, but it is certainly time to look at the finer tools in anticipation of change.
That would cut into finer tool monitoring time, only anticipating B2B, R2R. I'll keep that idea in mind tomorrow.
Quote from ivob:
...
You mention bars where you feel continuation was in force. Also you mention candidates for continuation and I don't know if this even qualifies as a CONTINUATION situation.
All this makes me think you are looking for continuation
No Ivo, I was definetely monitoring for change (reread my first sentence), but after a while I realized that there were very few bars that I didn't feel that change could be reasonably anticipated. If I marked all the areas on the chart where I felt change could be anticipated, it would have been practically one big ellipse.
If we consult the YM because it leads the ES, what good does it do us to check it after the signal for change has already occurred on the ES?
Everyone interested please reference Spydertrader's recent posts on this subject. This one particularly sums up what I was looking for:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1465843#post1465843
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1465809#post1465809
Data often differs between providers, and each provider, from time to time, experiences data SNAFU's within their own network. Nothing much we can do about it.
One more thing for you: After reading many of your posts today, it appears as if you may have missed the following quote from one of my recent posts,
Perhaps, I wasn't as clear as I believed.
1. First, we observe the tool.
2. Then, we use the tool for decision-making.
Again, based on your posts, I have the impression you either,
A. Spent very little time observing
or,
B. Skipped the exercise entirely
At the end of the day, you should have found answers to the following:
Again, I don't intend for the above post to 'single you out' from the crowd. Far from it. However, I have noticed a 'tendency' for you (and others) to 'do your (their) own thing' from time to time, rather than, follow the curriculum exactly as described. Perhaps, the frustration you (and they) experience (now and then) stems from this 'tendency.'
Let me know how I can help.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Pr0crast:
FYI, I think I just got the Medved brothers to code an update for Quotetracker that will add a sort of bouncing-ball-like indicator that superimposes an outline of the PRV over the active volume bar. Will update when I know more!
PS-- summary v3 will arrive soon...
Freaky - just thinking about that. I asked Jerry a while back: his response "no plans or demand for it". I said you have the bar countdown clock - how hard can it be...and then ran for cover. Nice one Pr0crast, look forward to it.
No, no, no! The CO approach is to observe the tool for 2 minutes, use it for a day or less, decide it doesn't work, tweak it and report back your improvements, then get bored and start a flame war about Jack. Really Spyder have you learnt nothing from ET?
(Just feeling a little sympathetic towards mephisto over here!
)I think Spyder invited us to post examples of gaussians and channels. Here's the first couple of hours of today's DAX:
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1467672>
If you get out your crayolas and add up the points remember to multiply the total by $30 to get an idea.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1467672>
If you get out your crayolas and add up the points remember to multiply the total by $30 to get an idea.
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