Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Hey Spydertrader,

I have a question about flaws. I know we are suppose to just hold through them at our level for now. I see you have marked at CCC 10:40 to 10:55. I got short at 1511.00 during the 10:55 bar. This is also my RTL. I ended up losing a tick, but my question is shouldn't prices continue lower? or is this just a WFT?

Also the HVS from 15:05 to 15:20. I would think prices would continue lower because the current trend is down and down vol is dominant within the flaw?? I remember you talking about this the other day when a few of us had some confusion off the open. I think you said try to figure out were prices are coming from and also look at the volume bars and that should tell a story as well.

Any info would be helpful, because I can spot these flaws but now I'm nervous about which way to go.:D

vjr
 
Maybe this will be helpful from my perspective as this helped me off the open. I had a up carryover channel traversing higher into the close of yesterday. The channel was formed using (10:20, 12:00 and pt 2 vol exp at 14:20 for Tues). The way I see it is, as long as prices are going higher and vol keeps increasing at each new peak, I would expect the mkt to keep testing or breaking those highs until vol no longer can sustain it.

Anyways, when we opened today, we were right on that RTL of that CO channel. During the "sync" time, price held. For me, knowing the overall gaussian of the CO channel still in place, I wasnt looking for shorts at all, rather expecting price to test the highs of Tues and price played out to a tee.




Quote from bundlemaker:



The pt3 up (thin green) was on overall decreasing volume, suggesting a non-dominant traverse. Or, possibly the whole day at this point is a big, sloppy lateral, coming after a gap down; again suggesting that the market is in a downtrend.

Not sure what I did in error here.
More...
 
Quote from vjr:

I have a question about flaws. I know we are suppose to just hold through them at our level for now. I see you have marked at CCC 10:40 to 10:55. I got short at 1511.00 during the 10:55 bar. This is also my RTL. I ended up losing a tick, but my question is shouldn't prices continue lower? or is this just a WFT?
More...

See the attached chart snippets.

At the time you describe above, we have the market creating a volatility expansion as Price heads lower (red circle). Price then bounces and heads higher and into a period of CCC. Since Price entered CCC moving higher, we anticipate Price continuing higher once it leaves the lateral CCC channel (follow the pink arrows)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1462771>

Quote from vjr:

Also the HVS from 15:05 to 15:20. I would think prices would continue lower because the current trend is down and down vol is dominant within the flaw?? I remember you talking about this the other day when a few of us had some confusion off the open. I think you said try to figure out were prices are coming from and also look at the volume bars and that should tell a story as well.
More...

In your second example (the HVS), we have price heading lower at first within a 'tape' channel (not drawn in). What we later come to see as a Point Two (red 2) first appears as an FTT (red circle) of the tape. By following the Pink arrows, we can see how Price moves through this particular HVS creating a left to right traverse. Price came up from the low (first red bar) and into the HVS from below. Remember, we (in real time) most likely felt the Black Price bar (also red circled) formed an FTT of the tape. Later (as we begin to see decreasing red and black Volume), do we begin to realize we have an HVS. Once realized, we simply figure out where the HVS began (black bar since we mistakenly assumed originally it was an FTT), as well as, how price entered the lateral (in this case from below). Once we know how price entered the lateral, we can correctly anticipate how Price plans to exit the lateral (assuming no over-riding signal for change develops inside the lateral).

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1462772>

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 

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Quote from Steve Tvardek:

Anyways, when we opened today, we were right on that RTL of that CO channel. During the "sync" time, price held. For me, knowing the overall gaussian of the CO channel still in place, I wasnt looking for shorts at all, rather expecting price to test the highs of Tues and price played out to a tee.
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Excellent Post.

- Spydertrader
 
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