Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Duncan Doughnut:

Sorry, I know that was too complicated. If you dont mind explaining, when the 14:10 ES bar closes, what is your intial reaction and thinking?

Thank you :)
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Today was a tough day for doing gaussians on volume. The area you mentioned is a stall going into a lateral, low volume which can be difficult read, IMO. At 14:35 everything changed with volume, then the lateral BO to FBO. Before then the volume is pretty flat. If you compare all the volume bars, no matter how you slice it, there was no push.

You would "expect" more volume than the previous peak to get you to the left trendline. (on the attached chart 1 vs. 2 and 1 vs. 3) It didn't happen. Also look at 2 vs 3 and 4 vs all of them.

Now if your looking from the view of coming of the bottom of the stall/lateral and a possible point #3 uptrend from 14:05, there was an increase in volume, but no follow through. A lot of stuff could be going on, FTT of purple channel, then break of the gray and blue tape/channel, volatility expansion of the 2 weight blue channel - Whew!

Really it's all on low volume in a lateral. A lot of noise until volume comes in at 14:30. Probably could have had a wider lateral for all of that.

Hope that helps - EZ
 

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A strong case of misdentifying pt 3's today. Started out with a long from the pt 3 from the last bar of yesterday. Took a lot of heat on the intial retrace and would not have held if not using sim. I found the gaussians very hard to follow. Ended up on various limbs unintentionally. I am trying to stay at the forest/tree level, entering each pt3 before prv kicks in but clearly a coin toss at the moment. As the pt3 is forming, I have no idea whether it's a tree or a limb etc. Looking forward to being able to tell the difference. Chart attached with errors.
-0.75, -0.75, -1.25, -0.75, -1.25, -0.25
 

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Quote from gooch87:

what I have so far...
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Hi gooch

this is my chart at the same point. We had the same lateral but my green channel gave me more information than your blue channel, imo e.g spotting the FTT at 11:25 .

Trying to read volume bar to bar sent me the wrong way a couple of times - hope to discuss in more detail later as I think everyone found it tough.
 

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Uptill 12pm my chart is RT. THe rest was drawn in after hours.

I wanted to go short real bad around 1130 based on my chart readings and around 1145 I was pretty confused concerning gaussians/forest/tree levels. The 1200 bar would of taken me out
of a good short. I also annotated very freely this morning without
thinking much.
 

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Quote from ivob:

This can be changed. Setup-->charts-->time stamp bar open time.

regards,
Ivo
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God bless ya, ivob!!! It's always: "do I add 5 min or subtract 5 min" ( depending on who's discussing the chart)

And all it required was a single mouse click !! You rock!! :D
 
All

Spyder will not be posting his charts tonight - he had to take care of some family business and sends his apologies.

He expects to post as usual on Monday and possibly sooner than that

IRL
 
Quote from 8833broc:

Uptill 12pm my chart is RT. THe rest was drawn in after hours.

I wanted to go short real bad around 1130 based on my chart readings and around 1145 I was pretty confused concerning gaussians/forest/tree levels. The 1200 bar would of taken me out
of a good short. I also annotated very freely this morning without
thinking much.
More...

I'm not at my desk, as I'm running scans trying to clean up a corrupted machine, but I believe I caught a pretty good read today (kind of a rare occurrence - so they tend to linger in my mind :) ) within the timeframe you mention above. I'll try to relate what I was seeing at the time, while referring to your chart:

- the 11:25 bar sure seemed like a good candidate for a FTT. It printed a new high on lower volume, not to mention the visually obvious failure to traverse the upchannel.

- the following two bars provided a BO of the rtl of the existing upchannel, first displaying decreasing red volume, followed by increasing red volume. So I annotated my gaussian as \R from 11:25 to 11:30 and then /R from 11:30 to 11:35 (This is one of those gray areas for me, as I am never sure how many bars one would like to see forming the R2R, but it seemed to fit for this example)

- so now I'm looking for a retrace back to the anticipated new Pt. 3, on decreasing black volume, which we see from the 11:35 to 11:55 bars. You have annotated this area as decreasing red - notice how the succeeding price bars display higher highs duing this time, which makes it easy to assign a "black" ray to the grouping. Granted, intrabar action got pretty volatile during this period, if memory serves, and an early entry might have been triggered.

This provides a good example of PointOne's astute assessment in his post which Tums recently brought up for review (pg. 558) - that being, one is wise to exercise "patience and alertness" at anticipated points of change. Seems like the mkt is often able to make that final exhaustive thrust beyond what we may be expecting to see. This probably has no place to be mentioned here, but I often throw up a quick fib retracement to provide an idea of some possible resistance (/support) levels.

Hopefully I have not steered you astray w/ the above ... regards

-
 
Quote from dkm:

A strong case of misdentifying pt 3's today. Started out with a long from the pt 3 from the last bar of yesterday. Took a lot of heat on the intial retrace and would not have held if not using sim. I found the gaussians very hard to follow. Ended up on various limbs unintentionally. I am trying to stay at the forest/tree level, entering each pt3 before prv kicks in but clearly a coin toss at the moment. As the pt3 is forming, I have no idea whether it's a tree or a limb etc. Looking forward to being able to tell the difference. Chart attached with errors.
-0.75, -0.75, -1.25, -0.75, -1.25, -0.25
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Hi DKM,

Why did you place your first trade on the first bar?

I mean, we ended yesterday with an FTT which changed our viewpoint from short to long. Overnight nothing happened. So I would say the top of bar 1 is our point 2. Then a tape down is formed on decreasing volume. As soon as this tape is broken we have our pt3.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

My chart for the morning.

-5 points.

I traded everything I thought I understood but I find it impossible to make a profit today. A few times I was up a number of points but then gave it all away while the FTT was being formed. Will move to realtrading when I have 3 weeks of profit every day so starting from zero again as of tomorrow.

regards,
Ivo
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I see now the big mistake I made. I did not get my channels right. I should have drawn a tape down from my second FTT (the blue one). This tape turned into a channel. When that tape was broken this was a much more important sign then my blue channel breaking The blue channel does not match the gaussians. The FTT bar and the one after that are red volume. Not black. I was in a long position at 10 and was watching price action instead of drawing lines. The red channel is not good either because I use a bar (the 10:25 one) that had black volume and not red. Should have used the tape instead and then the first green bar of the HVS would have been the FTT. There's no way this could have gone well. Lesson learned: draw it and draw it the right way. What a mess after spending so much time getting this clear! IMO even the grey channel is wrong because it should start at the second bar because that's when red came in.

The comment of Spyder: "Match the gaussians by how price moves, not by how the bar closes" made me think.

Even though I didn't draw the right way the HVS (yellow) should have pointed me in the right direction. Because price went in from below so I knew that (normally) price would resume upward. Still I held on to my short. The market gave so many signals but I didn't pick them up.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1455780">
 
Quote from PointOne:

Hi gooch

this is my chart at the same point. We had the same lateral but my green channel gave me more information than your blue channel, imo e.g spotting the FTT at 11:25 .

Trying to read volume bar to bar sent me the wrong way a couple of times - hope to discuss in more detail later as I think everyone found it tough.
More...

Hi PointOne,
I was having some difficulty finding the right channel for my gaussians also. I think the green channel you made is good, especially since it led to your seeing the FTT. I hope you were able to profit from that.
 
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