Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[bundlemaker]

Quote from Tums:

bm:
do you have the corresponding ym charts?

Ensign ate all my lines on the YM so I don't have my annotations at the time in question.

Looking back I"m not sure YM would have helped me, but to be honest I don't have a lot of confidence in my use of YM, which is currently limited to monitoring at the LTL. Any insight appreciated.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from bundlemaker:

Could you please review the attachement when conventient and comment? I know others I speak with have the same issue. It boils down to making the initial call correctly, and then what appears to be cause to reverse turns out to be false move.

1. Add your 20 SMA. Doing so shows why your Point Two turned into an FBO of the Red Down Channel. The 20 SMA often acts exactly like a trend line in wider Price Channels.

2. Where you have marked an FTT is really an HVS (High Volatility Stall). Call it a left to right traverse, a lateral or Even Harmonics. It all means the same thing - continuation. Since you either have exited off the FBO or reversed off the FBO (depending on experience level), you either are sidelined or short. Continuation would mean wait if sidelined, hold short if short.

3. You have a \/ - B2B Gaussian with no corresponding Point Three or RTL Break Out (circled Red). Remember, you have a red down channel so Red Volume is dominant and black volume is non-dominant until you leave the red down channel.

4. Intra-bar tools (Str / SQu / DOM, T&S, Tic Charts) can change within the bar itself first signaling continuation, and then signaling change or providing multiple change signals within the same bar. We often see multiple change signals within the same bar during an HVS.

5. We do not yet have the next tool (DOM) which would have shown a 'wall' which did not deteriorate - indicating another change signal.

6. Alternating Red, Black, Red, Black (or Black Red Black Red) Volume while both colors show decreasing represents an HVS. While the number of bars involved could range from 3 to 8 or more, Volume tells the tale.

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1449815>

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Vista:

Are you saying, that if you were LONG and saw a STR/SQU reading of -10 you would "instantly" reverse to a SHORT position no matter what price was doing? If yes, at what other levels would this action occur ........ -4, -5, etc. ?

We look for sufficient data sets. As such, we do not make decisions off single data elements. Now, if you alter the question to say, "If Price was sitting on the left trend line of an uptrend while you held a long position, and you saw a -10 on STR / SQU would you immediately reverse?" The answer would be a resounding,Yes.

Now having said that, Once a trader uses an Intra-bar tool, they must stay with that tool (continue monitoring) until the bar closes. The reason we do this stems from the fact that multiple Intra-bar signals (in opposite directions) can occur within a single bar (due to the volatility you spoke about). In other words, we continue to monitor Intra-bar to make sure no other signals develop prior to the bar close. We then move to bar-to-bar tools (PRV) to make sure we see what we need to see, and finally, we move back to the Coarse Level tools to continue our 'sweep' of the data ("What do I need for continuation and What do I need for change?")

I hope the above paragraphs provide some clarity. Please, let me know if you require additional clarification.

- Spydertrader

 

[ivob]

Chart for this morning.

Made a few mistakes.

1.
recognized the 1st FTT in the chart too late.

2.
the 10:35 bar caught me by surprise. I was just seeing a lateral where price would normally simply continue to go up. It didn't and I didn't see it coming.

For the rest no problems.

regards,
Ivo

 

[vjr]

Quote from Spydertrader:
6. Alternating Red, Black, Red, Black (or Black Red Black Red) Volume while both colors show decreasing represents an HVS. While the number of bars involved could range from 3 to 8 or more, Volume tells the tale.
- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1449815> [/B]

I did recognize the HVS and knew it meant cont, but I was thinking it meant cont of the current up channel. I almost went long when prices came in on the 10:30 bar, but I didn't because I notice PRV was high. I do have that same carryover down channel, but was looking at the HVS in the wrong context (upchannel). The above is great info to know, just incase I get lost again.

I just wanted to say that your last few posts are gold. My hand hurts from taking notes.

 

[dkm]

ES so far 27 Apr 07

 

[ivob]

Quote from vjr:

I did recognize the HVS and knew it meant cont, but I was thinking it meant cont of the current up channel. I almost went long when prices came in on the 10:30 bar, but I didn't because I notice PRV was high. I do have that same carryover down channel, but was looking at the HVS in the wrong context (upchannel). The above is great info to know, just incase I get lost again.

I just wanted to say that your last few posts are gold. My hand hurts from taking notes.

VJR.

Exactly the same for me. I recognized the HVS, I know it means continuation and I was long and stayed long with (probably too much) confidence. I really don't see the higher bar before the HVS as an FTT (not even a taped FTT, just no FTT). So the sudden red volume really caught me by surprise and for me THAT was the change signal. Not the FBO. I wonder what I did wrong here.

regards,
Ivo

 

[Pepe]

My Es for today...

 

[ramora]

Quote from Spydertrader:
5. We do not yet have the next tool (DOM)

Hi Spyder,

Will you start to discuss the DOM next week?

Is there a new tool for May?

Thanks again

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

I really don't see the higher bar before the HVS as an FTT (not even a taped FTT, just no FTT).

The bar to which you refer was an FBO, not an FTT. From a taped standpoint, you could even see it as a left (taped) trendline bounce. Also, Price entered the HVS from above (meaning headed lower). If we consider lateral price movement as continuation, and price headed into the lateral movement while heading lower, than we should be short headed into the HVS and expect price to head further south upon exit.

- Spydertrader