Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Yeah, I mean I thought for sure that the 15:10 bar would form a new pt 3 down channel but then price stalled from 15:20-15:30 and then obviously went to new highs. I think my short from 8950 was the right play for all we know the mkt could have really sold off from that point. Instead though we formed a new pt 3 up channel. Like I said, b/c my price was pretty good, the mkt still moved nicely in my favor before I was proved incorrect, I just wish I paid closer attention to the ym and "listened" to that 15:22 bar :D
 
Quote from Steve Tvardek:

Hey Spydertrader

I was short today at 8950 at 15:10 and felt very good about the trade, the 15:15 bar BO my RTL and everything seemed to be going great. Obviously, as we know, price shot up at the end of the day. I got out and still made a profit but feel that I should have noticed earlier that price wasnt going to continue lower but, rather a new pt 3 of an up channel was forming instead.

After looking over my charts again, I feel like the 15:22 YM bar was the critical turning point in signaling the ES would not longer continue lower. What is your take on this? Is this bar significant to you? Thanks!

Steve
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I did the same trade and lost. Especially because red volume was increasing on YM I took the trade. I guess we should have waited for pt3 after BO. Reasoning afterwards maybe price went with too much force thru RTL and I like better the trades where price goes thru on almost no volume. Also there was still another RTL that was not broken. (on YM)

Anyway, a perfect RTL break never happens and if it looks perfect I guess we should be cautious.


regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from Steve Tvardek:

Hey Spydertrader

I was short today at 8950 at 15:10 and felt very good about the trade, the 15:15 bar BO my RTL and everything seemed to be going great. Obviously, as we know, price shot up at the end of the day. I got out and still made a profit but feel that I should have noticed earlier that price wasnt going to continue lower but, rather a new pt 3 of an up channel was forming instead.

After looking over my charts again, I feel like the 15:22 YM bar was the critical turning point in signaling the ES would not longer continue lower. What is your take on this? Is this bar significant to you? Thanks!

Steve
More...

Steve, when exactly did you reverse to be on the right side again?

IMO the 15:22 YM could have easily been a point 3 down. It's just that there was no increasing red on the next few bars and no tape broken (ES)

regards,
Ivo
 
After the 15:22 bar formed on the YM, the ES was 8825 by 8850 (I was short from 8950). This is when I should have reversed again (I believe). Instead I waited a little longer, possibly in disbelief, and made only .50 instead of the full point. Still a profit however I want to be able to see truth sooner than I did here. Live and learn :)

Also, I would have a hard time seeing 15:22 bar as a point 3 of a possible down channel on YM since the bar had higher lows, and higher highs with tremendous buy volume (superceding the previous selloff vol). From 15:16-15:20 bars on YM it looked as if the mkt would really selloff into the close but then that 15:22 bar came and I think this is the point in time where the experts are bailing on their shorts and reversing into their longs. Time, practice and experience will get us to that point, no doubt about it.



Quote from ivob:

Steve, when exactly did you reverse to be on the right side again?

IMO the 15:22 YM could have easily been a point 3 down. It's just that there was no increasing red on the next few bars and no tape broken (ES)

regards,
Ivo
More...
 
Procrast,

Are you still compiling this thread in sections like you have in the past? I haven't seen any downloads in awhile. If not, I need to get crackin' and do it myself.
 
Does anyone have instructions on getting Mak's PRV and stretch squeeze spread sheet to work ?

Here is the link to the spread sheet:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1046171&highlight=ib+prv#post1046171

I followed the directions here and got numerous error meesage.

I seem to remember that this spread sheet was used somewhere in this journal but I couldn't find it.

The more I understand the SCT methods the more convinced I become that the key is recognizing chart/channel formations and waiting on PRV to equal to exceed the medium pace level along with a corresponding intrabar price momentum to execute the trade.
 
Quote from 8833broc:

...The more I understand the SCT methods the more convinced I become that the key is recognizing chart/channel formations and waiting on PRV to equal to exceed the medium pace level along with a corresponding intrabar price momentum to execute the trade.
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Indeed, that's how you "Never" make a bad trade.
 
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