Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Wanted to post a tough afternoon section (for me at least 
) and break it down.
At 14:50 it looked like an FTT on the ES, was clearer on the YM. Change
15:00 Everything looks fine and declining red on the YM. Non-dom retrace but also looking for a #2.
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going against me.
15:15 By now the YM has put in a possible point 3 for a lateral. The ES follows suit. We get declining red on the YM. I'm watching for increasing black. During this bar I'm thinking lateral. Hold?
15:20 Have a tape up. But also the lateral channel. I've realized I lost sight of the Forest and trying to work it out. Looks like a stall on the ES. YM has a down tape.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Kinda lost track of the forest because the short term action between the TL's sucked me into the leaves. I'd be interested to hear how others viewed the action during that period.
Regards EZ
) and break it down.At 14:50 it looked like an FTT on the ES, was clearer on the YM. Change
15:00 Everything looks fine and declining red on the YM. Non-dom retrace but also looking for a #2.
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going against me.
15:15 By now the YM has put in a possible point 3 for a lateral. The ES follows suit. We get declining red on the YM. I'm watching for increasing black. During this bar I'm thinking lateral. Hold?
15:20 Have a tape up. But also the lateral channel. I've realized I lost sight of the Forest and trying to work it out. Looks like a stall on the ES. YM has a down tape.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Kinda lost track of the forest because the short term action between the TL's sucked me into the leaves. I'd be interested to hear how others viewed the action during that period.
Regards EZ
Ezzy - If I may, I'll just make a couple general comments, and leave the slice and dice for the more astute technicians. The first thing I noticed on your chart was the absence of the 20 sma - perhaps you removed it for clarity in your example. But it once again pretty much contained price action all afternoon. That is a pretty good indication that the trend is still intact. Also, I'm assuming you redrew your dominant upchannel 3 or 4 times today, as the walkouts served to decrease the slope, but the operative rtl was continually supporting price.
So, that basically left us grinding uphill, very similar to yesterday's action, if you had a chance to observe then. There were several FTT's that were always interupted with FBO's, and one would've had to have been quick in able to profit much. In my mind, it was just another difficult Friday afternoon - and from my very limited experience with this mkt, one I would say better left alone.
I tried a short near the top of a FTT/ lateral at 13:42. First mistake was not taking a small profit as it was stopped cold by the rtl (beginner FBO exit), but was anticipating a 123 downchannel and figured I could hold through the placement of Pt 3. Had a small r2r going for it, price acted like it might just be able to breakaway down from the Pt. 3 but was stopped cold again with the convergence of the rtl and 20 sma. Got smoked in short order after that
There were several observing this action in Bearbelly's 'war room', and I believe most felt the mkt was offering slim pickin's by this tiime of day. Just no follow through for any 'change'. Regards ...
I did redraw the uptrend, that was the third one. About the 20dma, i have some issues with it, though spydertrader really likes it. Probably not the place to go into it, but for now trying to keep a clean chart.
After the volume picked up I thought we might have a run into the close. When the retrace started to look like a resume I didn't really handle it as well as I'd liked.
What happened was while I was expecting a retrace, it started to look like a quick dip. That brought me down to the leaves real quick where, at some point, I should have not been worried and waited for either the resume or retrace to the RTL.
I wanted to put it out there as an example of jumping resolutions that can happen and cause problems. During it I remember Spydertrader saying "where are you and what tools are you using" and I knew I was using the wrong tools in the wrong place - mid channel.
Thanks for the comments - EZ
After the volume picked up I thought we might have a run into the close. When the retrace started to look like a resume I didn't really handle it as well as I'd liked.
What happened was while I was expecting a retrace, it started to look like a quick dip. That brought me down to the leaves real quick where, at some point, I should have not been worried and waited for either the resume or retrace to the RTL.
I wanted to put it out there as an example of jumping resolutions that can happen and cause problems. During it I remember Spydertrader saying "where are you and what tools are you using" and I knew I was using the wrong tools in the wrong place - mid channel.
Thanks for the comments - EZ
Here's my chart for that period, and what I was thinking at the time.
Within the context of yesterday's action and the low volatility we've been having, the move down seemed very sharp for the news that triggered it. The 10:15 bar had high volume, but failed to push price significantly lower, and first created an fbo of the steeper channel, then an ftt. So the down move seemed exhausted. (I exited my short at 1453.)
It's true that black volume didn't continue through the 10:25 and 10:30 bars, but a stall is common after an FTT, and the 10:30 up channel pt 3 marks a rising pennant as volume declines--a bullish indication. I thought it would grind away up to the RTL (the afternoon pace), so I saw that as a tree level pt 3 rather than a forest level turn, but the direction seemed clear. Also, a down channel pt. 3 at 10:30 just seemed too steep for the forest.
Hope that helps -
Quote from Ezzy:
Wanted to post a tough afternoon section (for me at least
At 14:50 it looked like an FTT on the ES, was clearer on the YM. Change
agreed
15:00 Everything looks fine and declining red on the YM. Non-dom retrace but also looking for a #2.
that's also how I perceived it
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
I would have waited for point 3 after price would have broken out of the main channel. IMO waiting for point 3 is not the right action here the question for beginners is will price break out of the main channel or not. There is a point 3 on the traverse on YM as you marked it. If you decided to take this trade the action would be to get out on break of RTL (YM) which came together with FBO on YM (main channel). On ES this the tape. You're just trading very fine resolution here.
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going against me.
True but there IS increasing black and we need increasing red. And as far as I know you compare volume to the bars around it (or to the bars before), not to the previous peak. A volume peak (gaussian) makes a gaussian by comparing to the bars around it.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Look at ES and where price is closing all the time. It's just moving sideways. IMO that is not non-dominant volume and not a non-dominant retrace. First volume decreased and then it increased. Had this been a down channel price would have to go down on increasing volume and price could have gone up somewhat on decreasing volume. The uptrend remains. People were just buying.
Regards EZ
It's all easy reasoning afterwards
What helped me is watching stretch/squeeze because we were getting positive stretch values the whole time on important moments. It did not confirm any of the FTT's and often it invalidaded them. I cannot mention specific examples right now but I saw 3 times strong contrary stretch values when I thought it would be a market turn.regards,
Ivo
Ivo,
Afterwards is when we break it down, so all observations are worthwhile.
I had a lot of neutral sqz/str with short term blips in both directions so it seemed more a fine measure (if trading the leaves) than a confirmation of the longer swings - meaning I didn't find it helpful either during this period.
True but there IS increasing black and we need increasing red. And as far as I know you compare volume to the bars around it (or to the bars before), not to the previous peak. A volume peak (gaussian) makes a gaussian by comparing to the bars around it.
Good point here. You want increasing red for a reversal, I was watching for a non-dom traverse which would be decreasing red. Got that initially.
The lower peak volume (15:10 bar) has to do with extending the daily range. The previous peak had made a new high for the day. To extend that high you would expect "more" volume. The prior peak seemed to be peaking volume. Since we didn't get near that, to me it said we're not going higher, momentum is waining. So while I was pretty confident it wasn't going higher, the increasing black did worry me. Except for a couple minor blips after that, that was pretty much it for the day as we went sideways into the close.
Thanks for the comments. IMO debriefing these "rough" areas is very important as the bigger moves have much more room for error.
Regards - EZ
Afterwards is when we break it down, so all observations are worthwhile.
I had a lot of neutral sqz/str with short term blips in both directions so it seemed more a fine measure (if trading the leaves) than a confirmation of the longer swings - meaning I didn't find it helpful either during this period.
True but there IS increasing black and we need increasing red. And as far as I know you compare volume to the bars around it (or to the bars before), not to the previous peak. A volume peak (gaussian) makes a gaussian by comparing to the bars around it.
Good point here. You want increasing red for a reversal, I was watching for a non-dom traverse which would be decreasing red. Got that initially.
The lower peak volume (15:10 bar) has to do with extending the daily range. The previous peak had made a new high for the day. To extend that high you would expect "more" volume. The prior peak seemed to be peaking volume. Since we didn't get near that, to me it said we're not going higher, momentum is waining. So while I was pretty confident it wasn't going higher, the increasing black did worry me. Except for a couple minor blips after that, that was pretty much it for the day as we went sideways into the close.
Thanks for the comments. IMO debriefing these "rough" areas is very important as the bigger moves have much more room for error.
Regards - EZ
Quote from ivob:
It's all easy reasoning afterwards
regards,
Ivo
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