Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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I got a couple of pm's about chat so I set up a room in paltalk. Its called Channeltrading. Its open to anybody for now and hopefully only those seriously interested in comparing notes on this method will join in.
 
I thought I had a perfect Point 3 Short at 10:35.

There was a sharp down movement at 10:05-10:10 on high red volume and a subsequent retrace on declining black volume till 10:35. YM too seemed to confirm. However, price then shot upwards at 10:38 and blew out the RTL.

Was there any way that one could have known that this Point 3 at 10:35 would not hold?

Thanks.
 
KK-

I noticed decreasing red volume on YM starting at 10:24am. This would indicate a retrace in the newly formed up channel.

-Mike
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

I got a couple of pm's about chat so I set up a room in paltalk. Its called Channeltrading. Its open to anybody for now and hopefully only those seriously interested in comparing notes on this method will join in.
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I meant to respond yesterday on your suggestion, thinking it could be very helpful to discuss this stuff realtime. Is there a charge for Paltalk? Thanks ...
 
Quote from mephistoII:

I meant to respond yesterday on your suggestion, thinking it could be very helpful to discuss this stuff realtime. Is there a charge for Paltalk? Thanks ...
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No charge. Just have to put up with the ads. Half a dozen showed up today and it seems to be going pretty well. Hope we can work it into something useful.



[EDIT BY MAGNA: so that the thread stays on topic and doesn't turn into endless questions regarding the room i.e., where do I get the software (http://www.paltalk.com), how do I logon, can't find the room, is there a password, can I get rid of the ads, etc. etc. PLEASE send a PM to Bearbelly with any further questions regarding that room. Or you can setup your own ChannelTrading room in the ET Chat. Thanks.]
 
Quote from KK70:

I thought I had a perfect Point 3 Short at 10:35.

There was a sharp down movement at 10:05-10:10 on high red volume and a subsequent retrace on declining black volume till 10:35. YM too seemed to confirm. However, price then shot upwards at 10:38 and blew out the RTL.

Was there any way that one could have known that this Point 3 at 10:35 would not hold?

Thanks.
More...

I assume you are talking about a point three for a down trend. Today, I am in the middle of changing data and charting services but I am still watching the ES without the YM and STR/Sqz.

I saw the down move as stated above but with that kind of move, I would expect some rebound. Therefore, when I saw the flaw or stall I was ready to go long or short. If price breaks the recent high in the little stall, buy. (or if price continues down, sell.) Indeed, volume came in and we had a nice move which continues as I write this.

But, I am just learning this with the rest of us so, this is not necessarily the right thing to do.
 
Today’s ES. Looked a bit like yesterday. For my S/S model, I used an auto FV calculation that averages the last 50 ticks of the YM and INDU. As a result, my offset ranged between 56 and 58 throughout the day. I watched the S/S closely, but I can’t say it helped me that much (probably from my inexperience with this tool). Have a great weekend everybody!
 

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Quote from KK70:

I thought I had a perfect Point 3 Short at 10:35.

There was a sharp down movement at 10:05-10:10 on high red volume and a subsequent retrace on declining black volume till 10:35. YM too seemed to confirm. However, price then shot upwards at 10:38 and blew out the RTL.

Was there any way that one could have known that this Point 3 at 10:35 would not hold?

Thanks.
More...

I was waiting for pt3 down as well but never got one. (so no trade and no loss). Volume at 10:05 and 10:10 was very high and we needed even higher volume to go down more. We never got this volume. However, I expected at least another FTT because the one at 10:20 did not convince me. However, the breakout of high volume down channel should have convinced me and should have make me wait for pt3 up and not pt3 down. Price moved to fast for pt3 up BTW if you were watching tapes on ES. There was another one at 11:00 for a point and a half or so.

This is the good thing of waiting for pt3's. If you do it the right way (pay attention to the tapes, wait long enough) and you have the wrong bias then there's no trade and no loss. IMO pt's are the lowest risk trades. Using pt3 trades one should be able to make some profit.

regards,
Ivo
 
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