Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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FWIW, here is a chart of the FV premium from my 1-minute YM and INDU data today. I charted it because I wanted to see how it changed through out the day. The IndexArb.com value of 63.93 was generally close, but at key times that value would not have worked too well. I'd like to learn how people are making adjustments to their FV premium values throughout the day. I'm thinking of using the "eyeball" method!
Regretably, sim results so far are very disappointing. Annotations are fine but translating this into consistent profitability, even on the sim, remains elusive. Numerous small losses mean that most days end up negative. At the end of each day, the chart looks clear enough so I'm not sure where the problem is. Not moving onto to str/squ until this is resolved.
Just keep an eye on the str/sq while simtrading. It might help, maybe it's just what you need.
For me it sometimes acts as a filter and tells me to not take the trade (very important) and sometimes it acts as confirmation right after taking the trade. It's all additional information but can be decisive if other things are not completely clear.
I know I have a good eye and notice very clear the important moments when supply and demand have eaten eachother and there's just a small group left to bring price to another level. However, something seemed to be missing and this has filled in part of the puzzle. I usually was too early. I'm not saying that is all over but we're getting closer. Learning and applying.
How many trades do you take dkm? Are you overtrading or are you in the market when things are not clear to you?
regards,
Ivo
I have watched str/squ for several days but it makes no sense at all. It may that esignal cannot display it as required or it may be just me.
I am taking probably 5 or 6 trades per day. Most of the problems arise from misinterpretation of the situation. I enter at the wrong moment and run straight into an FTT or I get a break of the RTL shortly after entry at what I believe to be a pt3 or I exit prematurely because prv is not supporting the trade. Frustrating to say the very least.
I have a question for the more experienced traders (Mak? Bundle? Anyone else?)
Did you notice the very strong stretch signal (I saw -10) about a minute after the opening and do you think this was a clear indication with respect to where the market was going after that? I lack the experience but I assume this stretch value and the fact that I was seeing an FTT being formed in carryover channel means the intermediate traders would have gone short immediately or not? The stretch value is an indication for the strength of the move afterwards after all.
regards,
Ivo
Did you notice the very strong stretch signal (I saw -10) about a minute after the opening and do you think this was a clear indication with respect to where the market was going after that? I lack the experience but I assume this stretch value and the fact that I was seeing an FTT being formed in carryover channel means the intermediate traders would have gone short immediately or not? The stretch value is an indication for the strength of the move afterwards after all.
regards,
Ivo
Man, this sure sounds a lot like where I was roughly 5 or 6 weeks ago. I did two things that transformed my situation.
First, I followed Spyder's suggestion to NOT annotate an FTT UNTIL the bar AFTER the bar I thought was an FTT closed. I did this for a good week or so. It quickly became painful to wait that long, but it sure cured my earliness.
Second, once the above ocurred, the problem that was left was not being on the correct resolution level. Now, mind you, I fought tooth and nail against that idea. I was SURE, ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE, that I was on the forest level. Ha ha ha, turns out I was jumping all over the place.
The cure for this comes in the form of recording a live chart along with your own commentary. Say a loud what you are thinking. Do this continuously for an hour or two on several occaisions. Then play it back. YOu might be real surprised about where your head is and where it isn't.
I suspect you are right on top of getting it.
I am trading through Velocity Futures and just wanted to share my experience from SIM to real trading. The SIM is quite a bit slower in terms of quote speeds. I dont know if this is the same for all brokers but if you are having issues on the SIM with your trading, keep in mind that the "real" mkt is quite a bit faster and more unforgiving. Its not that you cant get used to the speed but spending too much time watching the SIM mkt could be detrimental. I suggest watching the quotes on your real platform to get your eyes used to the speed.
the issue is that it doesn't record max high/low. besides that it works fine. you have to be real fast with your sweeping, i'm starting to get quicker each day i look at it. i'm looking for extreme moves like mak said. i think if i watch it for a few weeks i'm make more sense out of it.
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