Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from ivob:

snip. . . The FTT on ES was quite obvious and I have seen examples in the past were ES had an FTT and YM did not and price behaved as expected (change on ES). Still, SOMETHING has to happen on YM. If it's not an FTT then at least a valid breakout I'd say. FTT is change of sentiment and this does IMO not happen on just one of the two indexes.

As the bar was forming on the ES, almost the entire bar was increasing black, at the end volume wained and it went red. A Split bar. So depending how you drew in your channels ( a steeper unptrend) it looked like an FTT - BUT there was also a volatility expansion. So while it was a hard call, I'm not confident it was/is a clear FTT. More of a dip, but it was a tough one.

So my question is: considering price and volume on ES and YM while price was going to RTL on ES. Could we know BEFORE price touched RTL on ES that RTL wouldn't break? Is the above reasoning the right way to see it?

regards,
Ivo
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I don't think there is any way of knowing, that would be predicting, but I was anticipating an up move or a new point 3 as we had a flat top pennant and were walking sideways.

Not to confuse the issue, but for the few willing to try a different view: it's interesting to turn a chart upside down - and read it so your going backwards in time. Doesn't seem like it would make a difference, but you might find youself saying "price doesn't behave like that" a few times. So you notice that price does tend to behave a certain way at certain times.
 
Chart for the morning.

Cool day so far! Seems like some people are selling. No one is posting here at the moment haha, I wonder why. Well I only trade the morning.

regards,
Ivo
 

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