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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Quote from WGTrader:
Mike, I like your charts.
Thanks WG. Now I need to learn to trade them.
Today marks my first month annotating in realtime.
I find I have to continually force myself NOT to zoom in past the 'Forest' or 'Tree' level. I don't have the experience or the tools to drop to a finer resolution yet.
Thanks to everyone for this wonderful journal.
-Mike
The bar at 15:20 is an FTT on ES (not much going on at YM at the same time).
After that we expect decreasing red volume before breakout. Instead we get decreasing green volume until the trendline. So price slightly going up (actually more sideways, the same at YM). Is this an indication that breakout will fail or am I seeing ghosts here and we just need to wait and determine the situation at the trendline?
regards,
Ivo
<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1417002">
After that we expect decreasing red volume before breakout. Instead we get decreasing green volume until the trendline. So price slightly going up (actually more sideways, the same at YM). Is this an indication that breakout will fail or am I seeing ghosts here and we just need to wait and determine the situation at the trendline?
regards,
Ivo
<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1417002">
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<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1417161>Quote from ivob:
The bar at 15:20 is an FTT on ES (not much going on at YM at the same time).
After that we expect decreasing red volume before breakout. Instead we get decreasing green volume until the trendline. So price slightly going up (actually more sideways, the same at YM). Is this an indication that breakout will fail or am I seeing ghosts here and we just need to wait and determine the situation at the trendline?
regards,
Ivo
<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1417002">
Ivo,
The YM has a bit more info. I wasn't sold on the FTT, and this is a look more at the leaves. At #1, 15:16 YM bar, while it looks like an ftt, we have decreasing volume. It did pick up on the next bar, but looking for more confirmation on a larger resolution. This is still all inside the 15:15 bar on the ES. The 15:20 ES doesn't confirm, it heads up on lower volume as seen on the YM.
The #2 on the YM chart shows the decreasing/low black volume, starting with the 15:20 bar. So what we need now to confirm the ftt (on the leaf) is increasing red. Doesn't happen. Hold. 15:30 on the YM has a little increase in volume. I'm thinking continuation, hold.
Area #3 volume continues to drop off on the YM and ES. We're still in the channels but by now it's very clear we're in a lateral/pennant, CCC even, and there has been no signal for change. Still holding long.
When the breakout happens we have continuation, if you got short after point #1, reverse. Fan your channel or volatility expansion.
So the short version is, wait or hold. Hope that helps - EZ
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Quote from Ezzy:
<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1417161>
Ivo,
The YM has a bit more info. I wasn't sold on the FTT, and this is a look more at the leaves. At #1, 15:16 YM bar, while it looks like an ftt, we have decreasing volume. It did pick up on the next bar, but looking for more confirmation on a larger resolution. This is still all inside the 15:15 bar on the ES. The 15:20 ES doesn't confirm, it heads up on lower volume as seen on the YM.
The #2 on the YM chart shows the decreasing/low black volume, starting with the 15:20 bar. So what we need now to confirm the ftt (on the leaf) is increasing red. Doesn't happen. Hold. 15:30 on the YM has a little increase in volume. I'm thinking continuation, hold.
Area #3 volume continues to drop off on the YM and ES. We're still in the channels but by now it's very clear we're in a lateral/pennant, CCC even, and there has been no signal for change. Still holding long.
When the breakout happens we have continuation, if you got short after point #1, reverse. Fan your channel or volatility expansion.
So the short version is, wait or hold. Hope that helps - EZ
Hello,
Thank you for the explanation.
I wasn't sold on the FTT on ES either. The reason was that I simply did not see an FTT (signal of change) on YM.
IMO the 15:16 red volume is too low to be an FTT. We need decreasing red volume after an FTT but the 15:18 bar gives us increasing red and not decreasing red. So in fact we get increasing red after the supposed FTT (compare bar 15:16 to bar 15:18). The increasing red is expected AFTER breakout, not before. Had the 15:16 and 15:18 bar be switched I would have been convinced a little more. An FTT goes with volume and 15:14 was completely black.
After that price was just going sideways on decreasing volume. I expected price to go down on decreasing volume (supposed we had an FTT), not sideways. Another option would have been further increasing price and another FTT.
I am just wondering if I am reasoning in the right way. The FTT on ES was quite obvious and I have seen examples in the past were ES had an FTT and YM did not and price behaved as expected (change on ES). Still, SOMETHING has to happen on YM. If it's not an FTT then at least a valid breakout I'd say. FTT is change of sentiment and this does IMO not happen on just one of the two indexes.
I do think that this situation it a little tricky. YM volume was very low at RTL and we did have an FTT on ES. (and FBO)
So my question is: considering price and volume on ES and YM while price was going to RTL on ES. Could we know BEFORE price touched RTL on ES that RTL wouldn't break? Is the above reasoning the right way to see it?
regards,
Ivo
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