Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from nkhoi:


I guess that main diff is I already have 2 more up channels when you are still working with the higher level RTL
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Thanks, you are right. I was not looking at the right channels. Bias was already up. Green was already dominating and we were waiting for point 3 --> increasing green volume. Drawing all channels certainly would have helped me. I think the reason was that I was gone for a while. Then when I came back tried to draw in the channels quickly under market pressure + PC started up slowly etc and I missed one. In the morning I always take my time drawing carryover channels etc but not now. When you miss channels then things happen one cannot explain... When you're gone for a while you should take the time and see what happened in the recent past. Everything can be explained but you got to have your channels right.

regards,
Ivo
 
This may be obvious to many so please bear with me. I have pondered on why I tend to miss many pt 3's and I have come to the following conclusion. When a pt3 occurs outside the previous channel we have the benefit of having seen (a) the FTT, (b) the RTL BO, (c) the r2r or b2b volume thrust through the RTL, and (d) the formation of the new pt 2 with a retrace on reducing volume as pt 3 is approached. Attention to tapes and the behaviour of volume at this time will frequently identify the new pt 3 in a timely manner. However, when a new pt 3 is formed inside the previous channel then we have the FTT followed by the anticipated reducing volume as price makes its way to the RTL and then we see the RTL BO, volume thrust etc, and I am left thinking "oops" that was a new pt 3 back there. When Spyder first described the Forest Level rules he stipulated that the trader should wait for the break of the RTL. I assume therefore that when a pt 3 forms inside the previous channel that the FL trader should not attempt to trade it. If one chooses to do so, then it will require a little more patience before prv arrives to validate the trade. I hope that makes sense.
 
Quote from dkm:

This may be obvious to many so please bear with me. I have pondered on why I tend to miss many pt 3's and I have come to the following conclusion. When a pt3 occurs outside the previous channel we have the benefit of having seen (a) the FTT, (b) the RTL BO, (c) the r2r or b2b volume thrust through the RTL, and (d) the formation of the new pt 2 with a retrace on reducing volume as pt 3 is approached. Attention to tapes and the behaviour of volume at this time will frequently identify the new pt 3 in a timely manner. However, when a new pt 3 is formed inside the previous channel then we have the FTT followed by the anticipated reducing volume as price makes its way to the RTL and then we see the RTL BO, volume thrust etc, and I am left thinking "oops" that was a new pt 3 back there. When Spyder first described the Forest Level rules he stipulated that the trader should wait for the break of the RTL. I assume therefore that when a pt 3 forms inside the previous channel that the FL trader should not attempt to trade it. If one chooses to do so, then it will require a little more patience before prv arrives to validate the trade. I hope that makes sense.
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Hello dkm. I understand what you mean. However, even if what you are describing takes place there often will be another point 2 and point 3 after RTL has broken. That's the one I prefer to trade.

Also there is another way to see it. One could identify the point 3 within the channel as just another FTT followed by BO. The first FTT in the channel is followed by FBO as price snaps back into the channel after your point 2 (or never got out). The advantage of thinking this way is you're not looking for points 1-2-3 and FTT's at the same time.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from dkm:

I assume therefore that when a pt 3 forms inside the previous channel that the FL trader should not attempt to trade it. If one chooses to do so, then it will require a little more patience before prv arrives to validate the trade. I hope that makes sense.
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A while back, I showed how a person (on the Forest Level Resolution) may choose to follow the new point three channel created when two FTT's formed within a previous channel. A forest level trader may choose to begin to trade the new channel in this case, instead of waiting for the RTL Break of the old channel. However, Following this guideline is optional. Unfortunately, I no longer recall the chart I used to discuss the example.

- Spydertrader
 
Chart for this morning.

Trading was not easy. I did not notice the FTT on my chart after the HVS (of course got out on RTL break). After this FTT I was waiting for pt3 that did not come although I thought I saw black increasing volume. Then there was this clear FTT that turned out to be WTF. Just too much jojo today for me.

regards,
Ivo
 

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My ES as of 12:15. Everything was fine until the 11:50 and 11:55 bars. I kept thinking I was seeing an FTT, but the volatility expansion kept on coming. Still managed to do ok, but I guess I was not paying enough attention.
 

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Quote from ivob:

Chart for this morning.

... Then there was this clear FTT that turned out to be WTF. Just too much jojo today for me.
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ivob,

It looks like your chart time is skewed a bit. I try and update my system time every moring.

My chart this morning doesn't show your WTF, but instead is a red bar. My 12:00 bar is black and my volume is not as 'spikey' at that time. I hope my data isn't wrong! (qcharts)

-Mike
 

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At the open we had falling prices on lower volume. I have a trend line in place from the previous day to show this up channel, but I think I'm missing some data.


It looked like it took awhile to get a non taping channel in.


I'm still having problems finding the forest (blue line on my charts) until way after the fact.
 

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