Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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My chart for this morning.

Trading was no problem. There were a few problems:

- until 10:30 I was seeing things that were not there. It was just a lateral I think. This resulted in a few losers. I think it is wise just to wait until announcements are over.

- Sometimes price moved so fast that it was hard to catch the point 3 (or it seemed there was no)

- I used to have two problems: bad entries (skill problem) and not holding on to winners. A deadly combination because the few times I had a winner they never made up for the losers. Now that my entries are very much better I should not be surprised or excited anymore to have "a winner" and work on pushing the hold button. The question is now more about how big the profit will be (which required holding until "change") then if it will be a winner or a loser.

Still managed to take 10+ points.

regards,
Ivo
 

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Quote from ralphbass:

Let me get this streight--lower volume on rising price in a down trend--is not sustainable. The price will turn and follow the volume and major trend. ???
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Welcome Ralphbass.

I would turn it around, price rising on lower (actually decreasing) volume is not sustainable. First there's volume, then there is price. Price can be expected to turn but SOMETHING HAS TO HAPPEN first IMO (FTT, decreasing volume, break of RTL and increasing red after that). If no one decides to sell, price can continue to go up for quite a while even if fewer and fewer people are participating in the market.

Also it can be that the down trend (the main channel) is not established yet. Just seeing price rising on decreasing volume is enough IMO to prepare for the FTT and reversal.

Actually this was exactly what happened today between 10:45 and 11:10. However, red volume could not be sustained after that so it resulted in a retracement of about 4 points, not a reversal.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

Aha. Looking back at Spyders recent post I see what you are talking about. Backtracking a bit I see that we were in an overall downtrend from the previous close so I was not looking at the correct channel. Fascinating stuff.
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Ain't it, tho! I still find myself mudding around a good bit of the time, but when it surfaces - the realizations make it all worth while. The main requirement is patience and perserverance - can't ya already smell that sweet scent of SUCCESS? :D

Also, great discussions this am, guys - thanks!
 
ES 28 Mar 07
Struggled with getting oriented during the morning, courtesy of Bernie. The pt 3's look so obvious with hindsight but only managed to catch one of them. Too much deliberation perhaps. By the time I recognise them I am way too late.
 

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The attached pricebehaviour confused me.

This example is YM.

First we have an FTT that on first moment did not look like an FTT to me. But ok, about two bars later I realise it was. Then we have decreasing black volume. Then black volume increases until 15:00. How should I see this? We have not arrived at RTL yet. This is the first confusion. For me this is indication of FBO...

Then price moves sideways while volume decreases quickly. I again suspect we are in an up channel. Price seems to go thru RTL on decreasing volume. Everything fine here. Next bar closes two ticks lower on higher volume. The next one even left of RTL on lower volume. I don't like it. Looks like FBO doesn't it? Next bar higher volume but price doesn't make it to RTL. I don't like high volume before breakthru of RTL. Next bar, same high volume but price goes down significantly. We must be in downtrend again or not??

So why does break RTL on high volume on the next bar?

Same time on ES we were looking for point 3 but right before we also had increasing red volume.

regards,
Ivo

<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1415440">
 

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