Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Perfect example of this (volume drying up after Point 3 established) happened today. New downtrend channel was marked by:

Point 1 - 12:20 PM 1415.75

Point 2 - 1:05 PM 1410.75

Point 3 - 2:05 PM 1414.75

After the Point 3 occurred it was a nice short entry signalled by a FTT in the 2:05 and 2:10 Bars. The ES ran down to 1411.75 but overall volume was not "convincing" on the move off of the FTT or the breakout of the upward tape. Volume was not significant on any of the moves off of the Point 3 and did, I guess you call it R2B, grow on a strong move back higher on the 2:40 PM Candle.

On the attached chart notice the 1,2,3 and volume trend lines and blue arrow on the breakout of what should of been a nice strong move lower.

40krl3m.jpg


Quote from Spydertrader:

The bar you marked as a Point Three, also turned into an FTT at its low. Easy to see based on your view of the near past bars, how you could view the Price Action as a Point Three Down Channel - espcially, if you missed the earlier Point Three Down Channel (See chart above). If you note the YM during that same time frame (Attached), you see the YM within an up channel during the same time period you mention above. However, even if you missed all of these clues, the next bar (10:35 AM) gives you increasing black Volume. Even if you missed the increasing black on a PRV basis, Price breaking through your RTL is the market's way of saying, the down channel has ended.

After a Point Three, one must see increasing volume in the same direction of the trend, and within the size of the current Point Three Forest or Tree (continuation). When a trader does not see a signal for continuation, then the only other possible conclusion is change.

- Spydertrader
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Spyder,
I am getting very confused as to what constitutes “forest level” trading. I would not have seen pts 1,2,3 on the 9:50,9:55,10:00 bars as “forest level”, or the same for bars 10:10, 10:15 and 10:20. To me these look like tapes, not pt 3 channels. To see a pt3 channel across 3 bars I would need to go to a faster fractal. Are you suggesting that all pts 1,2,and 3 on your chart for today represent forest level trading? If so, I am way off the mark. I had five pt3’s today, you had 15. My chart annotations seem to be getting further away from yours, not closer.
:(
 
Quote from dkm:

Spyder,
I am getting very confused as to what constitutes “forest level” trading. I would not have seen pts 1,2,3 on the 9:50,9:55,10:00 bars as “forest level”, or the same for bars 10:10, 10:15 and 10:20. To me these look like tapes, not pt 3 channels. To see a pt3 channel across 3 bars I would need to go to a faster fractal. Are you suggesting that all pts 1,2,and 3 on your chart for today represent forest level trading? If so, I am way off the mark. I had five pt3’s today, you had 15. My chart annotations seem to be getting further away from yours, not closer.
:(
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I did not consider those channels Forests either. As such, I marked them as 'Trees' on my chart. Today, we had a 'very large' Forest (Big Blue Channel on my chart). As such, we had very large Trees. The trees had their own limbs, and the limbs each had leaves (tapes). On most days, the tapes form the trees which form the Forest.

- Spydertrader
 

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Quote from nkhoi:

was YM help in any way?
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Yes, in terms of seeing the advanced warning FTT. I then wait for what I perceive as a pt3 on ES and I tend to wait for two tapes on the ES to give me a pt 3 channel. Unless 3 bars give me two tapes I tend to miss the faster pt 3.
 
you need only 2 bars to have point 1,2,3, even if you were 1 bar late, a glance a YM should confirm it is in deed a point3 on ES
2m5mo7s.gif
 
Quote from nkhoi:

you need only 2 bars to have point 1,2,3, even if you were 1 bar late, a glance a YM should confirm it is in deed a point3 on ES
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I tend to wait for 3 bars as shown in the attached clip but I can see that I need to get out of this habit :)
 

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